MODELING FLOOD DAMAGE: CASE OF TOKAI FLOOD 20001

ABSTRACT: In conventional flood damage reduction studies, flood damage is usually estimated with a damage function according to the depth of inundation. However, this method may not reflect the conditions of each family residing in the floodplain because it ignores not only the distribution of flood damage but also the effect of building characteristics and residents' preparedness. This paper uses data from a questionnaire based survey (N= 3,036) conducted 17 months after the Tokai Flood of 2000 that caused disastrous losses to household properties. It provides a conceptual “doughnut structure” model of flood damage to houses and house contents and a mathematical basis for models to explore the determinants of flood damage. Besides the inundation depth, house type significantly affects both the house structural and content damage probabilities, while house ownership and house structure affect house damage probability but not house content damage probability at a given depth. Inundation depth, residing period, and household income significantly affect both house and content damage values. In addition, house ownership has a significant impact on the house damage value, while house structure has an impact on content damage value.     

Theory into Practice: Implementing Ecosystem Management Objectives in the USDA Forest Service

In the United States and around the world, scientists and practitioners have debated the definition and merits of ecosystem management as a new approach to natural resource management. While these debates continue, a growing number of organizations formally have adopted ecosystem management. However, adoption does not necessarily lead to successful implementation, and theories are not always put into practice. In this article, we examine how a leading natural resource agency, the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, has translated ecosystem management theory into concrete policy objectives and how successfully these objectives are perceived to be implemented throughout the national forest system. Through document analysis, interviews, and survey responses from 345 Forest Service managers (district rangers, forest supervisors, and regional foresters), we find that the agency has incorporated numerous ecosystem management components into its objectives. Agency managers perceive that the greatest attainment of such objectives is related to collaborative stewardship and integration of scientific information, areas in which the organization has considerable prior experience. The objectives perceived to be least attained are adaptive management and integration of social and economic information, areas requiring substantial new resources and a knowledge base not traditionally emphasized by natural resource managers. Overall, success in implementing ecosystem management objectives is linked to committed forest managers.     

一种高柔结构的减震装置

介绍了国内外高柔结构减震装置的研究现状，提出了一种新的高柔结构减震装置，并对该装置进行了原理分析和计算。为了检验该高柔结构减震装置的减震效果，在大型结构振动台上进行了模型试验，实验结果表明，由于减震装置的约束作用，增加了系统的刚度，系统共振频率略有增大，该减震装置具有明显的减震效果。最后，对该减震装置在灾害救生方面上的应用前景进行了展望。     

四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践

作者曾分别于1991,1995和2001年发表了关于灾害研究理论与实践的3篇文章,对灾害系统的性质、动力学机制等进行了探讨.本文在前3篇文章的基础上,从综合灾害风险管理的角度,完善了灾害系统的结构与功能体系,论证了灾情形成过程中恢复力的作用机制,分析了区域开发与安全建设的互馈关系,构建了区域综合减灾的行政管理体系,提出了由政府、企业与社区构成的区域综合减灾范式.研究结果表明,区域灾情形成过程中,脆弱性与恢复力有着明显的区别,脆弱性是区域灾害系统中致灾因子、承灾体和孕灾环境综合作用过程的状态量,它主要取决于区域的经济发达程度与社区安全建设水平;恢复力则是灾害发生后,区域恢复、重建及安全建设与区域发展相互作用的动态量,它主要取决于区域综合灾害风险行政管理能力、政府与企业投入和社会援助水平.区域安全水平与土地利用的时空格局和产业结构关系密切,通过划定区域高风险“红线区“的办法,调整土地利用时空格局和产业结构,有利于建立区域可持续发展的综合减灾范式.针对区域自然灾害系统存在着相互作用、互为因果的灾害链规律,以及灾害系统所具有的结构与功能特征,完善由纵向、横向和政策协调共同组成的一个“三维矩阵式“的区域综合减灾行政管理体系,构建以政府为主导、企业为主体、社区全面参与的区域综合减灾范式.以此促进在发展中提高区域减灾能力,并在一定安全水平下,建设区域可持续发展模式.     

Bacterioplankton Community Structure and Dynamics in Enclosures During Bioremediation Experiments in an Acid Mining Lake

In an acid mining lake (pH 2.6) enclosure experiments wereperformed with the addition of different concentrations oforganic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. SSCP-communityfingerprints, based on 16S rRNA gene amplicons, were performed tomonitor changes in the structure of the total bacterialcommunity and the sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) in themesocosms. Total bacterial cell counts, as assessed byepifluorescence microscopy, were increased in the mesocosmsamended with organic carbon. The addition of carbon alsoincreased the number of abundant bacterial taxa substantiallyalong depth. Sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) could be detected inall enclosures and all parts of the water column. These SRBbelonged to genus Desulfobacter as indicated bycoroborating molecular data.     

秦皇岛市农业可持续发展研究

本文首先分析了可持续农业的基本理论,然后对秦皇岛市农业可持续发展面临的主要问题进行了较为深入的分析,在此基础上提出了秦皇岛市农业可持续发展的主要措施。     

耗散结构理论在矿井通风系统优化中的应用

利用耗散结构理论，以系统的影响参数作为切入点，对矿井通风系统的形成过程、系统平衡等进行描述，据此得出了一些探讨性结沦，这些有助于矿井通风系统优化与控制的计算机模拟。     

预应力混凝土结构设计可靠度刍议

预应力混凝土结构是我国土木、水利和交通工程中应用最广泛和最具潜力的一种结构。笔者就新公布的《混凝土结构设计规范》GB5 0 0 10— 2 0 0 2与原规范GBJ10— 1989关于预应力混凝土结构设计可靠度内容所作的重大调整以及部分更新进行了探讨。对新规范GB5 0 0 10— 2 0 0 2的学习、理解和贯彻执行有一定指导作用。     

城市防空和灾情报警防御系统研究

近年来 ,城市防空和灾情报警防御系统作为一种重要的城市防御灾情措施 ,特别是应对各种恐怖破坏活动和地域灾害的突然发生 ,以及未来战争的防御需求等灾情 ,已受到人们高度重视。笔者针对我国城市防空和灾情报警防御系统的实际现状 ,提出了我国城市防空和灾情报警防御系统的建设初步思想 ,并从系统的组织结构、功能原理、救援组织等几方面进行了描述 ,对提高城市的防御能力、避免灾难的发生 ,具有重要的指导作用     

土木工程结构健康监测研究进展

阐述了实施土木工程结构健康监测的必要性和迫切性,介绍了结构健康监测系统的概念、组成及其应用,信号采集与处理以及损伤检测的方法和研究现状,重点讨论了神经网络法在损伤诊断中的应用。介绍了利用小波神经网络和概率神经网络等新型网络的损伤诊断方法,最后指出了需要进一步研究的重点和难点问题。