物元分析法在大气环境质量评价中的应用

应用物元分析方法构建大气环境质量的综合评价模型，并将该方法用于唐山市大气环境质量评价中，获得了与实际情况基本符合的评价结果。     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

THE ARMA MODELS APPLIED TO THE FLOW OF KARSTIC SPRINGS1

ABSTRACT: Autoregressive moving average (ABMA) models have been applied to study the flow series of the karstic springs of La Villa, Fuente Mayor (Spain), and Aliou (France). The theoretical meaning of the parameters involved in the model upon applying it to a simplified scheme of the emptying of a karstic aquifer is first analyzed. The types of transformations necessary to apply these models to the flow series that lack normality and have strong periodic components are also indicated, as are the advantages of this type of model and the physical significance of the parameters obtained, with respect to the standpoint of hydraulics, ranging from rather homogeneous aquifers (La Villa) to extremely karstic (Aliou), including aquifers with intermediate characteristics (Fuente Mayor).     

北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论

通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析，结合１４Ｃ、古地磁等，对北京房山东甘池１５０００ａ以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究，特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在１４１００～１４０００ａＢ．Ｐ．前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件，在１００００ａＢ．Ｐ．左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件，在大约５７７０ａＢ．Ｐ．和４５６０ａＢ．Ｐ．左右及２８５０～２６５０ａＢ．Ｐ．出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。     

Accidents and risk control

A framework for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education is presented. An accident model was developed built on the concept “uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE)”, where essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy. A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g. an explosion, a release of heavy gases. A domain model has been developed for representing emergencies occurring in society. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements, and the domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. Ten specific domains have been investigated including process plant, energy production and distribution, natural disasters and different sorts of transport. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain.     

事故树定量分析与安全指标的数学模型的建立

阐述了在该课题研究过程中，提出的一些新概念、新定义和新方法     

峨眉山旅游购物品满意度研究

通过问卷调查方式，对峨眉山的伏虎寺、善觉寺、游人中心站、五显岗停车场、清音阁、生态猴区、雷洞坪、金顶等景点的不同性别和不同年龄的游客进行了调查，采用SPSS11对峨眉山旅游购物品满意度综合指标进行了因子分析，提取出影响游客对峨眉山不同类别旅游购物品满意度的主因子。     

我国与发达国家的逆城市化现象对比分析

逆城市化作为城市化发展的趋势，已经在我国东部沿海地区出现，这一现象引起了国内很多学者的关注。在回顾发达国家逆城市化和我国城市化历程的基础上，分析了我国逆城市化和西方逆城市化的差异，对我国的逆城市化发展提出了一系列的建议。     

室内火灾温度的预测方法及其分析

室内火灾温度是火灾科学中非常重要的参数之一，它对火灾防护有着重要的作用。本文以轰燃为分界点，总结归纳了目前国际上采用的轰燃前后室内火灾温度的预测方法。对每一种方法的使用条件及优缺点作了分析。同时对轰燃前后的各种温度预测方法分别作了简要的对比。最后根据前面的分析推荐了作者认为实用性较强的几种方法．     

大坝风险研究综述

大坝风险分析将有效地提高和加强大坝安全及管理水平.本文简要地介绍了大坝风险分析的基本理论、方法以及目前的一些研究现状,这些内容包括：大坝风险分析的框架结构、风险估计方法、用于大坝风险评估的三种常见方法、基于风险概念的大坝决策、设计与管理.在介绍过程中就相关问题提出了作者的一些认识和看法.