CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF THE SHOAL LAKE SUBDWISION1

ABSTRACT: The techniques of conflict analysis derived from game theory were applied to the Shoal Lake water supply conflict in southeastern Manitoba, Canada. The issue of conflict is the desire of an Indian Band in the area to build cottage lots near the intake for water supply for the City of Winnipeg. The City of Winnipeg contends that such a development would seriously affect the quality of water supplied to the City, thereby increasing its treatment costs significantly. The four major players defined for the conflict are the City of Winnipeg, Indian Band No. 40, the Province of Manitoba, and the Federal Department of Indian and Northern Affairs. The results of the conflict analysis suggest that the introduction of the provincial and federal government into the conifict will not assist significantly in its resolution and that further progress on the resolution is unlikely until the results of Federal Environment Assessment Review office hearing become available.     

Statistical evaluation of an agricultural land suitability model

The land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) method has been used extensively in the United States to assess agricultural land suitability for different localities. Despite widespread use, LESA models rarely have been evaluated in a systematic, comprehensive manner. This article discusses development of a LESA system for Hawaii, the first statewide application of the LESA methodology. The empirical model was implemented with a computerized geographic information system (GIS). The system's efficiency, ability to discriminate among land parcels, and robustness to subjective model parameter values are evaluated with statistical analyses and map overlays of GIS data. Results show great potential to simplify the original model specification, primarily through deletion of marginal site assessment factors. System output was generally insensitive to the numeric values selected for model parameters, with exception of the ratio used to combine the land evaluation (LE) and site assessment (SA) component scores. Relative supplies of the differing land attributes measured by the two components must be considered in determining an appropriate LE:SA ratio for a given area.     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LONG-TERM STREAM TEMPERATURES ON THE STEAMBOAT CREEK BASIN,OREGON: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND FISH HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.     

非时序加权灰色关联分析在环境质量综合评价中的应用

本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质，提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列，环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列，通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度，按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用４个实例与其它方法进行了对比，取得满意的效果。     

MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用

文中以时间序列分析为基础，介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念，并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型（简记为MFAM），经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧（DO），氨氧，化学耗氧量（COD），五日生化需氧量（BOD5）等序列模拟，结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势，拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%，MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化，结果表明预测精度达85%以上，文中最后得出结论：MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测，是完全可行且十分方便。     

EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF POPULATIONS USING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING,DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of ground-water flow and fate of contaminants in the subsurface environment constitutes a major phase of most environmental assessment and site remediation studies. These simulation studies yield information on spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in the subsurface media. An important use of this information is to conduct exposure assessment studies. Spatial and temporal distributions of both chemical concentrations and exposed populations render this integrated exposure analysis task rather difficult. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), on the other hand, provide a platform in which layered, spatially distributed databases can be manipulated with ease, thereby simplifying exposure analysis tasks significantly. In this paper, we describe procedures that combine the simulation models and demographic databases under a GIS platform to automate the exposure assessment phase of a typical health assessment study. Procedures developed herein significantly simplify the post-processing phase of the analysis, and render the overall task more ‘user friendly.’ A site-specific application is included as a demonstration of the proposed process.     

REGIONAL FLOOD EQUATIONS FOR THE PROVINCES OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT: When nonparametric frequency analysis was performed on 183 stations from Ontario and Quebec, unimodal and multimodal maximum annual flood density functions were discovered. In order to determine generating mechanisms, a monthly partitioning of the annual maximum floods was undertaken. The timing of the floods revealed that the unimodal distributions reflected a single flood generating mechanism while the multi-modal densities reflected two or more mechanisms. Based on the division of the flood series by mechanisms, nine homogeneous regions were delineated. L-moment distributional homogeneity tests along with smaller standard errors for the regional equations supported the delineation.     

EXAMINING LAND USE INFLUENCES ON STREAM HABITATS AND MACROINVERTEBRATES: A GIS APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to assess the relationships between land use patterns and the physical habitat and macroinvertebrate fauna of streams within similar sized watersheds. Eleven second or third order watersheds ranging from highly urbanized to heavily forested were selected along Lake Superior's North Shore. Land use patterns within the watersheds were quantified using readily available digital land use/land cover information, with a minimum mapping resolution of 16 ha. Physical habitat features, describing substrate characteristics and stream morphology, were characterized at sample points within each stream. Principle component and correlation analyses were used to identify relationships between macroinvertebrates and stream physical habitat, and between habitat and land use patterns. Substrate characteristics and presence of coarse woody debris were found to have the strongest correlations with macreinvertebrate assemblage richness and composition. Agricultural and urban land use was correlated with substrate characteristics. Algal abundance, associated with macroinvertebrate compositional differences, was correlated with housing density and non-forest land covers. The use of readily available spatial data, even at this relatively coarse scale, provides a means to detect the primary relationships between land use and stream habitat quality; finer-resolution GIS databases are needed to assess more subtle influences, such as those due to riparian conditions.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

Wellhead treatment costs for groundwater contaminated with pesticides: A preliminary analysis for pineapple in Hawaii

In Hawaii, trace concentrations of pesticides used in the production of pineapple were found in the groundwater supplies of Mililani Town in the Pearl Harbor Basin on the island of Oahu. Groundwater serves as the major source of drinking water and residents pay for wellhead treatment of the contaminated water, via their monthly water bill. The agricultural chemical users within the Pearl Harbor Basin do not include these wellhead treatment costs in their production costs. The agricultural industry benefits from using pesticides but does not pay the entire societal cost of using these chemicals. In this study we evaluate the specific financial cost of wellhead treatment, and not the economic value of groundwater. While wellhead treatment costs could conceivably be shared by several parties, this study focuses on the financial impact of the pineapple industry alone. This study factors annual wellhead treatment costs into annual pineapple production costs to measure the effect on annual financial return from pineapple production. Wellhead treatment costs are calculated from the existing granulated activated carbon (GAC) water treatment facility for Millilani Wells I and II. Pineapple production costs are estimated from previous cost of production studies. The inclusion of wellhead treatment costs produces different production-cost results, depending on the scale of analysis. At the local scale, the Mililani wellhead treatment costs can be factored into the production costs of the pineapple fields, which were probably responsible for contamination of the Mililani Wells, without causing a deficit in economic return. At the larger regional scale, however, the return from all of the pineapple grown in the Pearl Harbor Basin can not sustain the cost of wellhead treatmentfor the entire water supply of the basin. Recommendations point to the prevention of groundwater contamination as more cost-effective measure than wellhead treatment.