基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用

土地利用指标的区域配置与部门配置是我国国土空间规划体系的核心问题。如何在贯彻落实国家意志和中央战略的前提下,根据我国不同类型自然地理区划和经济社会区划的发展实际,特别是根据城镇化格局定型区、发展型城镇化地区和收缩型城镇化地区等三类不同地区的土地利用的实际,充分顾及各级地方政府的发展意愿,优化配置各类用地指标,是本轮国土空间规划不可或缺的首要的基本任务。基于此,建立一个基于空间可计算一般均衡模型（SCGE）的多尺度、多区域、多情景国土空间规划模拟分析框架（CTSPM）,提出该框架在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的实际应用场景,以支持多种国家发展情景和土地指标分配方案下国土空间格局模拟分析,及其经济社会影响和生态环境影响分析,为各地区、各部门之间的土地指标“博弈”提供“辩论”平台,为科学编制国土空间规划以及深度理解国土空间安全的跨区域影响提供分析性框架。     

Management Model of Resources Equilibrium Distribution among Overlapping-Generations

Abstract

The overlapping generation models the western scholars have designed from various perspectives to address different kinds of issues do not reflect Chinese emerging political and economic problems, and cannot be entirely and blindly applied to Chinese practical situation. In this paper the authors endeavor to incorporate some western scholars' research results into their own research findings to present overlapping generations model theory in a new perspective through establishing an overlapping generations theory on population including articulation of concepts and theorems of biological generation, economic generation and social generation and the overlapping periods in biological generation and two overlapping periods in economic generation among three generations. This management model with equilibrium distribution of resource wealth includes overlapping generations length model (δ), equilibrium transfer model (?) and a complete model on equilibrium distribution among generations (δ-?). The model provides quantitative basis for the creation of resource management system, and fills in a theoretical gap in this discipline in China. Besides, it furnishes a new methodology and manipulate tool for Chinese government to establish a comprehensive management information bank for many sectors such as economic trade, population, science and technology, education, human resource, natural resource and environment, agriculture, forestry, industry, mining and energy.     

Management Model of Resources Equilibrium Distribution among Overlapping-Generations

The overlapping generation models the western scholars have designed from various perspectives to address different kinds of issues do not reflect Chinese emerging political and economic problems, and cannot be entirely and blindly applied to Chinese practical situation. In this paper the authors endeavor to incorporate some western scholars' research results into their own research findings to present overlapping generations model theory in a new perspective through establishing an overlapping generations theory on population including articulation of concepts and theorems of biological generation, economic generation and social generation and the overlapping periods in biological generation and two overlapping periods in economic generation among three generations. This management model with equilibrium distribution of resource wealth includes overlapping generations length model (6), equilibrium transfer model (θ) and a complete model on equilibrium distribution among generations (δ-θ). The model p     

Pressure and temperature increase of LPG in a thermally coated pressure vessel exposed to fire: Experimental and model results

Damage caused by incidents with transport tanks with compressed liquified gas is amongst the most extreme that can be encountered with transport vessels. This is particularly the case with the Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE), which may occur if such a tank is exposed to fire for a prolonged period. Therefore, the local Dutch LPG transport sector adopted a thermally insulating tank coating as a ‘standard outfit’ for their tank trailers, with the aim to delay a BLEVE for a sufficiently long period for emergency services to take appropriate measures and for people near the accident location to be evacuated. On a European scale however, no consensus has been reached on the cost-benefit of such measures.With the current drive towards “greener” and renewable energy sources, this issue has regained attention with alternative fuels such as LNG, CNG and Hydrogen and a need was felt for (better) theoretical models and experimental data concerning the behavior of transport tanks carrying these substances.In this paper a new tank thermal (equilibrium) model is described to predict pressure and temperature behavior of a multi layered, thermally insulated tank containing a compressed liquified gas exposed to heat. Results are compared with data of three bonfire experiments, in which 3 m³ tanks, filled for ca. 50% with LPG were exposed to fire. A good match between modelled and experimental pressure and temperature evolution in time could be obtained using a constant value for the thermal conductivity of the insulation layer. The modelling showed that the thermal insulation value is crucial for an accurate prediction of these parameters as well as the opening time for a pressure safety valve. As relevant temperatures may cover a very wide range (from cryogenic in LNG-tanks to over 1000 °C in a fire) knowledge of the thermal (and physical) behavior of the insulating layer over a large temperature range is essential.The same holds for the behavior of the PRV when subjected to fire. Extreme temperatures may also lead to deviating behavior from what is expected based on the initial settings.     

Reverse quantitative structure-activity relationship for modelling the sorption of esfenvalerate to dissolved organic matter. A multivariate approach

The sorption of the pyrethroid, esfenvalerate, to the dissolved and/or dispersed fraction of eight different natural humic compounds has been investigated. The dissolved organic matters (DOMs) included in this study originate from ground water, soil pore water, and surface waters. Sorption was modelled at DOM concentration levels where equilibrium partitioning of esfenvalerate between DOM and the aqueous bulk phase prevails. The inherent characteristics of the eight different humic materials, quantified in the preceding paper by Thomsen et al. (2002, this issue (PII: S0045-6535(02)00335-1)), have been used as explanatory variables for modelling this equilibrium partitioning. Using a reverse QSAR approach based on by projection-into-latent-structure regression (PLS-R) inherent sorbent properties determining for the sorption affinity of esfenvalerate to DOM were analysed. For all humic substances a decrease in the DOM-normalised equilibrium-partitioning coefficient, K_DOM, with increasing concentration of DOM was observed. Significant variations in K_DOM values, as function of the inherent characteristics of the individual humic substances, were found at DOM concentrations of 75 and 100 ppm, respectively. The latter is a strong indication of variations in sorption mechanisms of esfenvalerate to DOM of varying inherent properties. Groupings in the principal property space quantifying DOMs may indicate that separate models are needed for quantifying the equilibrium partitioning to different classes of DOM.     

Critical mass flow rate in accordance with the omega-method of DIERS and the Homogeneous Equilibrium Model

A correlation frequently used in practice for the design of the relief cross-section next to the Homogeneous Equilibrium Model is the so-called ω-method. For the determination of the ω-parameter a definition was originally reported by J.C. Leung in 1986. A new expression was proposed by the same author in 1995. Predictions of the critical mass flow rate using both the new and the old ω-parameter formulations as well as the Homogeneous Equilibrium Model are compared for some typical substances. Results demonstrate that the deviations as a rule are acceptable for practical use, if the proposed range of application and recommended property data calculation are respected.     

可计算一般均衡模型理论及其在气候变化研究中的应用

介绍了可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）的基本原理和主要类型。分析了该模型相对于其它经济模型的主要优势，综述了CGE模型在气候政策领域中对温室气体减排的经济成本，社会成本，减排效益，减排政策设计等问题的应用。比较了国内相关研究的现状，结果表明，CGE已经回答了在国际上气候变化研究中人们所关注的许多政策问题，但是国内的研究工作急需加强，从经济理论和参数识别两个角度讨论了CGE模型面临的挑战。     

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (Korea) are conducting a government-commissioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries (CJKFTA) to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environmental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA’s possible impact on China’s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China’s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA’s scale and composition effects on China’s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 7 database and China’s energy-environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO₂ and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.     

Charging versus exclusion: Choice between recreation management tools

Overuse of recreation sites seems to justify regulation, and the principal tools for this are fee charging or physical exclusion. Both seem equally costly to administer. Both involve equal costs to consumers if recreationists visit from one origin, but if they come from different origins, costs may be greater and consumers' surplus less under either tool, depending on the shape of the demand curve. Which is the more equitable tool depends on the relative representation of rich and poor participants from near and distant origins. Potentially beneficial use of site revenues is an advantage of charging. Neither availability of substitutes nor variation in daily demand seems likely to change these results substantially, but a system of booking admissions before the trip outset might neutralize the advantages of charging. The optimal level of use varies with the regulatory tool chosen. The optimal admissions under exclusion could be fewer than or more than under charging, or may even be equal to unregulated use.     

环境保护过程中的博弈及对策分析

主要针对工业污染,利用博弈论方法分析致污企业、个人、政府在保护环境时的不同行为策略以及相应的均衡结果,并且从博弈论角度提出如何有效环保的建议。