Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

The division of Europe into regions with similar potential effectiveness and environmental consequences of pesticide application based on expert inclusive research

A division of Europe into regions with similar climate and soil conditions, assuming similar pesticide effectiveness and environmental effects of their application, was developed by a combination of statistical cluster analysis and expert involvement for identifying clustering variables and weighing their importance. The experts identified 15 variables representing climatic, soil and crop structure data and weighted them. In order to maximally simplify the administrative work with pesticide registration resulting from the division of Europe into zones, the additional criteria in the procedure were: the zoning follows existing administrative borders, country divisions by zone boundaries are limited, and situations where a zone consists of parts separated by another zone are avoided. The results of the analyses were compared with the applicable EPPO classification and visualized on maps. The highest similarity was observed in the southern Mediterranean zone, the layout of which differed by only a few regions. The Alpine part, having specific conditions, was not distinguished among the EPPO zones. Our study very clearly delineated the Central European part, having a climate with continental influence, which is distributed among other zones in the EPPO classification.     

A survey on occupational accidents’ reporting and registration systems in the European Union

This paper presents the results of a survey on the procedures for reporting occupational accidents in the EU countries. It focuses particularly on the reporting and registration systems, as well as on the main characteristics of National Databases being used for the production of official statistics. The survey shows that many European countries have different methods and procedures for collecting and compiling data on occupational accidents, which inevitably pose problems when comparing accident statistics between the EU member states.The paper includes a brief review of the main goals and achievements of the European Project ESAW (European Statistics on Accidents at Work), which was launched in 1990 by the Eurostat (European Statistics), for the harmonisation of occupational accidents’ statistics among the member states. It is believed that the new variables being introduced by the harmonised methodology will quickly affect the way in which managers and insurance companies carry out their current procedures in several EU member states.The International Labour Organisation (ILO) recommendations and the future trends are also analysed. In conclusion, the study identifies opportunities for further development and research in the reporting and registration systems of occupational accidents.     

欧盟汽车行驶记录仪的推广应用历程

欧盟是汽车行驶记录仪应用历史最久和安装车辆最多的地区。欧盟应用的成功经验掀起了周边国家及世界范围内各国争相引入汽车行驶记录仪实施道路交通安全监管的热潮。在广泛、深入调查欧盟汽车行驶记录仪应用情况的基础上,本文从基本概念、产品种类及技术发展、推广应用历程进行了简述,旨在加深人们对汽车行驶记录仪基本概念和应用理念的认识和理解,推动我国汽车行驶记录仪的进一步推广应用及管理体系的建立。     

Trade and recycling of used tyres in Western and Eastern Europe

Truck tyres can cause significant environmental pressure through the life cycle. The main aim of this paper is investigate to what extent international policy measures on foreign trade, international recycling and harmonisation of legislation can contribute in effectively reducing environmental pressure caused in the truck tyre life cycle. A two-region simulation model, representing Western and Eastern Europe, is developed that integrates the complete life cycle, incorporates environmental impacts in its economic analysis, is technically dynamic by accounting for learning-by-doing effects, and allows for variations in trade of new and old truck tyres. In this study the economic, environmental and social effectiveness of harmonisation and trade measures in the European life cycle for truck tyre is tested. Several conclusions can be drawn from the model simulations. First, the environmental effects caused by the trade of used tyres from Western to Eastern Europe are of limited impact on the overall environmental damage caused by truck tyres. The consumption stage is by far the main contributor to environmental damage. Within the marginal analysis of trade, harmonisation of disposal fees illustrated to generate very limited positive results. The private and external costs in the solid waste management (SWM) stage are too limited to have a notable impact on the overall configuration of the European tyre life cycle. The introduction of strict laws on tread depth in Eastern Europe has a much stronger impact on material flows than the harmonisation scenario. This suggests that domestic policy measures should be the primarily focus on interventions in this stage of the life cycle, for instance, by improving the management of tyre pressure. Because trade of used tyres has little impact on the consumption stage, this issue should not get priority in European environmental programs.     

Why the Conservation of Forest Genetic Resources Has Not Worked

Abstract:  Genetic diversity is indispensable for long-term forest sustainability and is therefore mentioned in numerous binding and nonbinding political covenants calling for action. Nevertheless, there are significant obstacles to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We discuss hindrances to genetic conservation, mainly in Europe. We identified impediments by reviewing the literature and on the basis of the experiences of the authors in this field and their participation in related political processes. The impediments include (1) difficulties in assessing and monitoring genetic erosion and human impacts (e.g., by the lack of markers showing adaptive variation and the lack of record keeping on the use and transfer of forest-tree germplasm), (2) complexities of European national structures that make the development of a common strategy toward forest genetic conservation problematic, (3) lack of effective forest governance in many parts of the world, (4) the general unattractiveness of genes as flagships in raising public awareness, (5) lack of integration of genetic aspects into biodiversity conservation, and (6) the fact that scientists and politicians are often at cross-purposes. To overcome these impediments, forest geneticists and their peers in species conservation have to participate more actively in decision making. In doing so, they must be prepared to face challenges on 2 fronts: participating in political processes and the provision of significant research findings to ensure that decisions with respect to forest genetic diversity are politically implementable and effectively address targets.     

Analyzing the carbon dynamics of central European forests: comparison of Biome-BGC simulations with measurements

Biogeochemical models are often used for making projections of future carbon dynamics under scenarios of global change. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the process-based biogeochemical model Biome-BGC for application in central European forests from the lowlands to upper treeline as a pre-requisite for environmental impact assessments. We analyzed model behavior along an altitudinal gradient across the alpine treeline, which provided insights on the sensitivity of simulated average carbon pools to changes in environmental factors. A second set of tests included medium-term (30 years) simulations of carbon fluxes, and a third set of tests focused on daily carbon and water fluxes. Model results were compared to aboveground biomass measurements, leaf area index recordings as well as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) measurements. The simulated medium-term forest growth agreed well with measured data. Also daily NEE fluxes were simulated adequately in most cases. Problems were detected when simulating ecosystems close to the upper timberline (overestimation of measured growth and pool sizes), and when simulating daily AET fluxes (overestimation of measured fluxes). The results showed that future applications of Biome-BGC could benefit much from an improvement of model algorithms (e.g., the Q₁₀ model for respiration) as well as from a detailed analysis of the ecological significance of crucial parameters (e.g., the canopy water interception coefficient).