Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model

Uncertainty is a critical issue for all models that attempt to quantify the necessary emission reductions that are required to meet environmental quality targets. This paper discusses a methodology specifically developed to analyse the uncertainties in the emission estimates with the regional air pollution information and simulation (RAINS) integrated assessment model, considering the uncertainties in the model parameters themselves. Overall, it was found that a typical range of uncertainties for modeled national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe lies between 10 and 30%. In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of equal-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of the national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). However, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.     

Nitrate leaching in agriculture to upper groundwater in the sandy regions of the Netherlands during the 1992–1995 period

The Dutch National Monitoring Programme for Effectiveness of the Minerals Policy (LMM) was initiated to allow detection of a statutory reduction in nitrate leaching caused by a decreasing N load. The starting point, or baseline, was taken as the nitrate concentration of the upper metre of groundwater sampled on 99 farms in the 1992–1995 period in the sandy areas of the Netherlands, where predominantly grass and maize grow. We found here that a reduction in nitrate leaching of more than 20% in future would almost certainly be detected with the LMM. Detecting downward trends due to decreasing N load will require nitrate concentrations to also be related to soil drainage, precipitation excess leading to groundwater recharge and to location. Furthermore, we found that about 16% of the N load in the Dutch sandy regions was being leached to the upper metre of groundwater in the 1992–1995 period. The critical N load in approximately 1990 for exceeding the EC limit value for nitrate, NO₃, (50 mg L^–1) in the upper metre of groundwater for the mean situation for grassland, maize and arable land in the sandy area was found to be 210 kg ha^–1 a^–1. Because manure management has been altered, the critical load found will be lower than the current critical load .     

RELEVANT ASPECTS OF AIR QUALITY IN OPORTO (PORTUGAL): PM10 AND O3

The air quality Framework Directive (FWD) and the correspondent Daughter Directives defined the new strategy for air quality management in Europe. In general, the new standards are more restrictive than those established by the previous legislation. In Portugal, some difficulties can be previewed to achieve those new standards. Thus, this paper aims at evaluating the impact of application of the FWD to Oporto Metropolitan Area in what concerns to the most critical air pollutants in the area (PM₁₀ and O₃). The specific objectives were: i) to analyse the concentration exceedances between 1999 and 2001; ii) to identify the main emission sources; iii) to evaluate the possibility of a new redistribution of the existing monitoring sites; iv) to contribute to the definition of a new strategy for air quality management. The results showed that; i) the standard values for PM₁₀ and O₃ were largely surpassed, possibly concluding that the FWD application implies a strong impact on the air quality management strategies; ii) the main emission sources (road traffic and the neighbour stationary sources localised upwind) affect all the Metropolitan area through intra-region pollutant transport; iii) it is safer maintaining the site localisation to avoid previewing exceedances through mathematical correlations; iv) the reduction of PM₁₀ and of ozone precursors must be performed considering new technologies for cleaner production and gaseous depuration, a rigorous urban and territory planning, the creation of an efficient public transport network and the definition of strict measures for car maintenance.     

The relationship between economic and carbon footprint changes in EU: The achievements of the EU sustainable consumption and production policy implementation

The Sustainable Consumption and Production policy is a key objective in the renewed European Union (EU) Sustainable Development Strategy (SDS). EU countries implement the targets of Sustainable Consumption and Production policy at different a level. Nevertheless, SDS targets are concerned more with production than consumption side. In addition, analysis of the carbon footprint data, which was supplied by the Global Footprint Network, showed that in all EU countries consumption-based carbon footprint caught-up and exceeded the level of production-based carbon (except Denmark and Estonia) during 1993–2010 period. The significant absolute decoupling in terms of carbon footprint from production-based perspective was observed in Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Slovakia, Poland, United Kingdom and Germany, meanwhile from consumption-based perspective only in Denmark, Estonia and Germany. Moreover in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Croatia the consumption-based carbon footprint grew faster than economy in general. Results imply that EU should put more focus on consumption side in terms of Sustainable Consumption and Production policy and measures taken. A commitment to reduce the environmental impact from consumption-based perspective should be more addressed covering values and lifestyles.     

Parallel and Serial Methods of Calculating Thermal Insulation in European Manikin Standards

Abstract

Standard No. EN 15831:2004 provides 2 methods of calculating insulation: parallel and serial. The parallel method is similar to the global one defined in Standard No. ISO 9920:2007. Standards No. EN 342:2004, EN 14058:2004 and EN 13537:2002 refer to the methods defined in Standard No. EN ISO 15831:2004 for testing cold protective clothing or equipment. However, it is necessary to consider several issues, e.g., referring to measuring human subjects, when using the serial method. With one zone, there is no serial-parallel issue as the results are the same, while more zones increase the difference in insulation value between the methods. If insulation is evenly distributed, differences between the serial and parallel method are relatively small and proportional. However, with more insulation layers overlapping in heavy cold protective ensembles, the serial method produces higher insulation values than the parallel one and human studies. Therefore, the parallel method is recommended for standard testing.     

Extra- and intra-European Union exchanges of recovered materials and products

On the basis of the data Comext from Eurostat, this paper presents 2001 data on the main exchanges (flows) intra-European Union (EU) and with the rest of the world (extra-EU), by countries (for the main countries which are concerned), tonnage and value, by categories of recovered materials and products. A synoptic table is established, the results are summarized, and initial comments are provided. Moreover the evolution from 1995 to 2001 is discussed.The second part of the paper examines what these data tell us:

* whether they are consistent with the main theories of international trade, and which factors explain these exchanges,

* what is the extent of foreign trade of recovered products and materials,

* to what extent the EU appears as ‘an economic entity’,

* and possible effects of the enlargement of the EU.

The social dimension of biodiversity policy in the European Union: Valuing the benefits to vulnerable communities

This paper uses GIS-based mapping tools and economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services to explore the social dimension of biodiversity policy. We investigate the linkages between biodiversity, ecosystem service values, and socio-economic vulnerability indicators in a spatially explicit framework and at different geographic scales. Our focus is on Europe, where biodiversity and ecosystem benefits have been well studied for many ecosystems, such as forests, coastal ecosystems and freshwater wetlands. The analysis focuses in particular on rural agricultural areas and remote mountainous regions accounting for the differences across various income groups, both at national and regional levels. The results of the study provide useful insights for EU policymakers in designing policy instruments that can promote biodiversity conservation and prevent natural resource degradation, on the one hand, while contributing to social stability and human livelihoods, on the other hand.     

State of the population of the European pearl mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Margaritifera margaritifera</Emphasis> (L.) (Mollusca,Margaritiferidae) at the northeastern boundary of its range (Solza River,White Sea Basin)

Only two river basins in which the European pearl mussel has survived to date are known in Arkhangelsk oblast. These are the Solza and Kozha basins. The northeastern boundary of the European range of this species passes along the watershed between the basins of the Solza and the Shirshema (the Onega Peninsula) and then along the Onega-Northern Dvina watershed. The population density and the proportion of juveniles widely vary in different parts of the Solza Basin, and, therefore, the previously conclusion concerning the ageing of the population in the Kazanka River (Bolotov and Semushin, 2003) applies only to certain parts of this river. The highest density of the pearl mussel in the Solza Basin is 68 ind./m². Fish cultivation contributes to the conservation of this pearl mussel population, as the release of Atlantic salmon juveniles ensures reproduction of the mollusk under conditions of regulated river flow.     

轻型车NH_3排放实验研究

用傅里叶变换紫外光谱法对4辆不同里程、不同排量、不同排放标准的轻型车NH_3排放进行测量,试验车辆包括2辆双燃料出租车。实验结果表明:里程数越高的车辆,在同一个测试循环中产生的NH_3排放越多;在高速工况下,车辆产生的NH_3要高于在低速工况时;在循环中车辆加速过程产生的NH_3浓度较高;对于天然气燃料车辆,市区运转工况下基本上没有NH_3排放,在城郊运转工况下产生的NH_3要多于用汽油燃料时。