Forecasting turbine problems by means of the state space framework

A forecasting system is set up to improve the diagnosis in a Condition Monitoring Programme of a critical turbine placed at an industrial plant. The system is based on a statistical model in a State Space framework, such that the local mean level of the vibration state of the equipment is estimated directly from the data, based on a continuous-time set up. This model is combined with a cost model in Conditioned Monitoring, by which the time of preventive replacement is produced when the minimum of the expected cost per unit of time is reached into the future. Such measure is a combination of the costs of failure, the costs of a preventive replacement and the probabilities of reaching the alarm levels fixed by some criteria. The system is estimated by Maximum Likelihood and thoroughly tested on the equipment. The main tests relate to statistical properties of the model residuals and a comprehensive comparison with an alternative system, namely a linear trend regression model in continuous time. The system produced a reasonable forecasting performance and sensible time of preventive replacement prediction and outperformed the alternative forecasting system.     

North–south trade in reusable goods: Green design meets illegal shipments of waste

In a stylized model of international trade, firms in the North indirectly export second-hand products to a representative firm in the South to be reused as intermediate goods, with potential trade gains. The level of reusability of waste products – or green design – is a crucial choice variable in the North. This is because, in the presence of imperfect international monitoring, non-reusable waste can be illegally mixed with reusable waste. I explore the driving forces for illegal waste movement, with a particular focus on local waste regulations such as the EU׳s Directive on Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment. Under mild conditions, it is shown that increasingly stringent regulations in the North can induce Northern firms to reduce product reusability. Consequently, the flow of non-reusable waste to the South increases, magnifying the pollution haven effect.     

过滤器处理含聚采油污水滤料流失及改进技术研究

为解决石英砂过滤器处理聚驱污水过程中出现的滤料板结、反冲洗憋压、滤料流失问题,通过对石英砂过滤器进行了改造,利用搅拌装置破碎滤饼层,经现场测试,搅拌式石英砂过滤器反冲洗压力由原来的0.27~0.46Mpa降低到0.12~0.16 Mpa,滤料流失得以解决。在来水含油和悬浮固体平均41 mg/L和21 mg/L,总滤后水质含油达到5.8 mg/L以下,出水悬浮固体3.2 mg/L。油和悬浮固体去除率分别提高85%和86%。     

欧盟重金属污染防治历程及启示

通过综合学习借鉴发达国家不同历史阶段污染防治的历程与积累的经验,有助于我国在比较的视野中正确认识我国重金属污染防治中存在的问题,以及学习借鉴他国的经验教训,探索属于自己的跨越式发展道路,包括污染防治政策制度设计、环境管理经验、各国的协调合作等。     

Walking when intoxicated: An investigation of the factors which influence individuals’ drink walking intentions

Annually, in Australia, 10-15% of all road-related fatalities involve pedestrians. Of those pedestrians fatally injured, approximately 45% were walking while intoxicated or ‘drink walking’. Drink walking is increasing in prevalence and younger persons may be especially prone to engage in this behaviour and, thus, are at heightened risk of being injured or killed. Presently, limited research is available regarding the factors which influence individuals to drink walk. This study explored young people’s (17-25 years) intentions to drink walk, using an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Participants (N = 215), completed a self-report questionnaire which assessed the standard TPB constructs (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control) as well as the extended constructs of risk perception, anticipated regret, and past behaviour. It was hypothesised that the standard TPB constructs would significantly predict individuals’ reported intentions to drink walk and that the additional constructs would predict intentions over and above the TPB constructs. The TPB variables significantly predicted 63.2% of the variance in individuals’ reported intentions to drink walk, and the additional variables, combined, explained a further 6.1% of the variance. Of the additional constructs, anticipated regret and past behaviour, but not risk perception, were significant predictors of drink walking intentions. As one of the first studies to provide a theoretically-based investigation of factors influencing individuals’ drink walking intentions, the current study’s findings have potentially significant implications for understanding young people’s decisions to drink walk and the design of future countermeasures to ultimately reduce this behaviour.     

扩展卡尔曼滤波算法在矿用救生舱舱内气体浓度测控中的应用

为有效控制矿用移动式救生舱内气体浓度,确保救生舱内环境质量,保障舱内人员生命安全;根据《煤矿井下紧急避险系统建设管理暂行规定》的指标要求,采用扩展卡尔曼滤波方法对救生舱舱内气体参数的变化过程进行辨识,得出舱内气体浓度的状态空间模型,并应用迭代优化控制方法对气体浓度进行控制调节;在矿用救生舱模型和现场样机中分别进行了模拟和现场试验。结果表明,测控系统能有效控制救生舱舱内气体浓度进行,满足各项指标要求,且具有较好的鲁棒性。     

KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: II. APPLICATION TO THE POTOMAC RIVER1

Results are reported from an application of the state space formulation and the Kalman filter to real-time forecasting of daily river flows. It is shown that the application of filtering techniques improves the overall forecasting performance of the model. As is true for most hydrologic systems, the model is not completely known. Therefore, the procedures pertaining to on-line parameter and noise statistics estimation, as presented in the first paper, are implemented. The example in this paper shows that these techniques also perform satisfactorily when applied to a real-world situation.     

“Decision-making” in conflicts of wild chimpanzees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes</Emphasis>): an extension of the Relational Model

>We examined the "decision-making" process of aggressive interactions within a community of wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) in the Taï National Park, Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa). Costs and benefits were investigated for 876 dyadic aggressive interactions among 18 adults (including 4 independent adolescents) of either sex. An extended version of the Relational Model was developed to describe the dynamics of the "decision-making" process in Taï chimpanzees, which suggests that the net benefit determines the occurrence of conflicts. Both sexes fought more frequently for the resources that were most important to them, food for females and social contexts for males. Individuals used two different strategies according to their likelihood of winning the aggressive interaction, determined by the dominance relationship of the conflict partners. Dominant initiators had longer and more intense aggressive interactions, but they limited their social disadvantages by fighting non-cooperative partners. Subordinate initiators had shorter and less intense aggressive interactions, but risked more social costs, which they could reduce afterwards by reconciliation. Both strategies included a positive overall net benefit. The extended Relational Model fits the complexity of wild chimpanzee conflicts and allows for more flexibility in the "decision-making" compared to the original version.Communicated by E. Sterck     

Dynamic multi-resolution spatial models

Data from remote-sensing platforms play an important role in monitoring environmental processes, such as the distribution of stratospheric ozone. Remote-sense data are typically spatial, temporal, and massive. Existing prediction methods such as kriging are computationally infeasible. The multi-resolution spatial model (MRSM) captures nonstationary spatial dependence and produces fast optimal estimates using a change-of-resolution Kalman filter. However, past data can provide valuable information about the current status of the process being investigated. In this article, we incorporate the temporal dependence into the process by developing a dynamic MRSM. An application of the dynamic MRSM to a month of daily total column ozone data is presented, and on a given day the results of posterior inference are compared to those for the spatial-only MRSM. It is apparent that there are advantages to using the dynamic MRSM in regions where data are missing, such as when a whole swath of satellite data is missing.     

The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) as a tool for the assimilation of high frequency water quality data

The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) was applied to the analysis of high frequency field measurements of dissolved oxygen (DO), water temperature, salinity, collected by multiparametric sensors in the lagoon of Venice. This paper focuses on the practical aspects of the implementation of the EKF as a data assimilation technique and does not deal with the problems associated with the identification of the model. In this regard, the EKF has proved to be a useful tool for the updating of the estimates of the parameters of a simple DO-chlorophyll model, which can be used for linking the high frequency data to meteorological forcings, such as solar radiation and wind, and to other low frequency measurements of water quality parameters, such as the concentrations of Chlorophyll a and nutrients. The model can subsequently be used as a tool for checking the consistency of all this data, and may also be employed for controlling the quality of the data collected by the multiparametric sensors.