Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break

This paper examines whether Russia suffers from “Dutch Disease” by investigating the real appreciation of the Russian ruble and the relative de-industrialization in the post Soviet Union-era. According to UNDP Russia Report (2009) the Russian economy has indeed exhibited some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease” in recent years as upward movements in oil prices are accompanied by a reduction in the share of manufacturing output and an increase in service prices. Furthermore, the report claims that these developments may trigger a recession in Russia in the future. Using Gregory and Hansen (1996a, 1996b) and Arai and Kurozumi (2007) structural break cointegration frameworks, our results indicate that the Russian economy exhibits some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease”. Although the diagnosis is not certain, the risk is evident. Hence, policies that would make the Russian economy more robust to shocks in the oil price need to be carefully designed and implemented.     

Forecasting iron ore import and consumption of China using grey model optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm

The iron and steel industry plays a fundamental role in a country's national economy, especially in developing countries. China is the largest iron ore consumption market in the world. However, because of limited domestic iron ore resources, a large proportion of iron ore is imported from other countries. Faced with the conflict between the iron ore supply shortage and the growing demand, it is necessary for the government to predict imports and total consumption. This paper develops a high-precision hybrid model based on grey prediction and rolling mechanism optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. We use the China Statistical Yearbook (1996–2011) as our database to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. According to the experimental results, the proposed new method clearly can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model. Future projections have also been done for iron ore imports and total consumption in China in the next five years.     

The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers

The terms of trade debate initiated by Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer over 60 years ago continues to this day and is unlikely to be resolved soon. However, even if Prebisch and Singer are right and the terms of trade of countries exporting primary products are falling, to suggest that these countries should diversify away from the production of mineral commodities and other primary products, as many have done, may be poor policy advice, encouraging countries to abandon a promising source of wealth with which to foster economic development.     

复合吸附材料TLA的制备及其砷氟共除性能的研究

以硫酸钛、硝酸镧和活性炭为原料,制备了新型的TLA复合吸附剂.比较了TLA和活性氧化铝除砷除氟吸附等温线、吸附动力学和pH对除砷除氟效果的影响;通过X射线衍射仪(XRD)和扫描电镜(SEM)对吸附剂进行了表征,并对吸附机理进行了探讨.结果表明,TLA对砷氟的吸附容量显著优于活性氧化铝.在pH为7,砷氟单独存在时,TLA对砷和氟的Langmuir吸附容量分别是30.3mg.g-1和27.8mg.g-1;当砷氟共存时,TLA对砷和氟的Langmuir吸附容量分别是25.1mg.g-1和17.0mg.g-1.TLA对砷、氟的吸附符合拟二级动力学方程.溶液pH值显著影响砷、氟去除效果.电荷分布多位络合模型(Charge-distribution multisite complexation model,CDMUSIC)能准确模拟砷、氟的吸附行为.     

F/M对ASBR中基质的吸收、储存和利用影响

研究了不同F/M（COD/VSS）下以葡萄糖为基质时厌氧序批式反应器（ASBR）中的微生物代谢规律.结果表明,在序批操作条件下,水解产酸菌对葡萄糖的代谢存在2条并列的途径,即直接代谢为VFA和首先转化为胞内储存物糖原,然后糖原再被转化为VFA.前者约占进水COD的34%～38%,而后者则高达41%～46%.F/M越高,糖原的储存量越大,当F/M分别为0.27、 0.20和0.14时,单位质量污泥糖原的最大储存量分别为116.8、 81.1和62.4 mg/g.糖原的储存减缓了VFA的积累,为ASBR反应器的高效和正常运行创造了条件.     

生物絮凝剂产生菌的分离鉴定及其在饮用水除浊上的作用

从活性污泥中筛选分离到一株高效生物絮凝荆产生菌F1,鉴定为克雷伯氏菌属(Klebsiella sp.).对其所产生物絮凝剂MBF1进行初步提取,考察了MBF1对长江原水浊度的去除效果.结果表明,在对长江原水处理中絮凝荆MBF1用量为40mg·L-1时,长江原水浊度和CODCr从处理前的56.2NTU和42.67mg·L-1下降到0.6NTU和13.47mg·L-1,去除率可达到99.0%和68.4%,处理后水的两指标达到饮用水标准.同时,比较了生物絮凝剂MBF1与聚合氯化铝、聚丙烯酰胺等化学絮凝剂对长江原水浊度的处理效果,结果发现MBF1具有用量更少(40mg·L-1),适应性广(pH 1～10,温度0～45℃条件下都有较好处理效果,且对搅拌程序无特殊要求)及处理效果好的特点.动物急毒性试验表明,该絮凝剂无急毒性反应,在给水处理中具有良好的应用前景.     

Assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in sludges according to the European environmental policy

The amount of sewage sludge generated in Europe is expected to surpass the 10 million tons/year in 2006 as a result of the waste water treatment process according to the Water Policy in European Union. Sewage sludge is what is left behind after water is cleaned in waste treatment plants and is characterized for this high content in nitrogen and phosphorous that could be of great importance in agriculture as fertilizer or soil conditioner. On the other hand, pollutants like metals and organic contaminants are usually removed from water and are accumulated in the sewage sludge, reaching the food chain if their concentrations are not below the safe limits established by the European legislation. The latter issue is of great concern nowadays and in this sense, different works alert against the use of the sewage sludge in agriculture arguing that serious illnesses, even resulting in death as well as adverse environmental impacts are associated to the application of sewage sludge. This work is a continuation of a former comprehensive survey on of priority organic pollutant in sludges for agricultural purposes carried out by our group in Catalonia and this time is focused on the polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), one of the most toxic group of organic compounds listed in the Work Document on Sludge which is the reference tool in this field in Europe and is also included in the Stockholm Convention. Eighty eight samples were collected from the end of 2003 to April 2006 and the concentrations detected were lower than the 100 ng/kg I-TEQ limit recommended by the European legislation (EC, 2000). Thus, sewage sludges generated in Catalonia do not represent a threat to human health if they are used as fertilizers in agriculture.     

The effects of bisphenol A on sex hormone levels of F0 female rats and F1 male rats during weaning period

The effects of bisphenol A (BPA) were examined on sex hormones of F1 generation male rats during weaning period. Female rats were exposed to BPA from day 0 after pregnancy to the weaning period at doses of 50, 100, or 200 mg kg^?1. The sex hormone levels of F1 generation male rats were determined. This study shows that F0 generation female rats fed with 200 mg kg^?1 BPA had a significantly higher serum prolactin (PRL) levels at the end of weaning. Significantly higher levels of serum estradiol (E₂) were also found in female rats fed 100 or 200 mg kg^?1 BPA. Serum levels of E₂ in F1 male generation rats were higher in treatment groups compared to control groups while serum testosterone (T) levels were lower. Follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) in F1 generation rats fed 200 mg kg^?1 was markedly decreased. The relative testicular weights were significantly less in 100 and 200 mg kg^?1 BPA groups. BPA was found to alter the sex hormone levels in F1 male rats during weaning period and thus disrupted endocrine functions.     

Carbon leakage and capacity-based allocations: Is the EU right?

Competitiveness and carbon leakage are major concerns for the design of CO₂ emissions permits markets. In the absence of a global carbon tax and of border carbon adjustments, output-based allocation is a third-best solution and is actually implemented (Australia, California, New Zealand). The EU has followed a different route; free allowances are allocated to existing or new capacities in proportion to a benchmark, independent of actual production. This paper compares these two schemes in a formal setting and shows that the optimal one is in fact a combination of both schemes, or output-based allocation alone if uncertainty is limited. A key assumption of our analysis is that the short-term import pressure depends both on the existing capacities and the level of demand, which is typical in capital intensive and internationally traded sectors. A calibration of the model is used to discuss the EU scheme for the cement sector in the third phase of the EU-ETS (2013–2020). This allows for a quantification of various policies in terms of welfare, investment, production, company profits, public revenues and leakage.     

Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?

Carbon leakage is of interest in both academic and policy debates about the effectiveness of unilateral climate policy, especially in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) affects many traded sectors. We review how the literature identifies leakage and the pollution haven effect. We then evaluate whether EU ETS emission costs caused carbon leakage in European manufacturing, using trade flows in embodied carbon and value from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We find no evidence that the EU ETS caused carbon leakage.