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1.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
2.
Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants. 相似文献
3.
This paper discusses the REAP1 model and its application for the analysis of CO2 reduction and waste management policies for Japanese petrochemicals. The pros and cons of this modelling approach in comparison to other tools is elaborated. This is followed by a discussion of the model code and the modelling results. The results show that CO2 policies can have significant impacts on waste flows and waste policies can have significant CO2 benefits. As a consequence both effects must be considered in policy assessment. Pricing instruments are recommended instead of regulations because of the complex physical relations in the materials life cycle that extend beyond sector boundaries. A taxation approach is superior to a subsidy approach because rebound effects can be avoided. 相似文献
4.
5.
Karin Andersson Merete Hgaas Eide Ulrika Lundqvist Berit Mattsson 《Journal of Cleaner Production》1998,6(3-4)
The feasibility of combining the concept of sustainability principles and the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is examined. The goal is to achieve an operational tool that incorporates sustainability in product development and strategic planning. While the method outlined has the structure of LCA, it emphasises aspects and parameters often omitted from traditional LCA. The analysis and results can be either qualitative or semi-quantitative. Although a qualitative analysis is less time consuming, it can still highlight the important issues. Qualitative information, which is easily lost in a quantitative analysis, can be emphasised. One of the conclusions is that the method is well suited for screening analysis. 相似文献
6.
对沈阳张士污灌区大气、水、土壤和生物各分室中Cd的库存量和各分室间Cd的循环通量进行了研究,建立了土壤-水稻系统中Cd流分室模型。该模型表明,Ⅱ闸和Ⅲ闸地区土壤分室中Cd的库存增量均为正值。可见,该污灌区近年来Cd污染程度由于污水灌溉仍然处于加剧的趋势。研究最后指出,该污灌区Cd的污染防治对策主要是减少污水灌溉量、进一步降低灌溉水中Cd的浓度和通过富Cd植物收获带走Cd.其中,以野生苋的收获带走Cd最有意义,它可使Ⅱ闸和Ⅲ闸地区Cd的下降速率分别依次达到29.49和22.81mg/(m ̄2·a)。 相似文献
7.
三界谷来地区主要出露中、新生代火山岩。进行 1/5万区域地质调查时,采用火山活动旋回-火山构造-火山地层-岩相、岩性-体化思路,按照同旋回火山机构或火山喷发区为单元,确定岩石地层单位和填图单元。火山岩划分为九种岩相类型,建立了两个岩相模式和一个三相一体成因模式。根据火山岩浆作用的旋回性及其产物与火山构造形迹时、空、成因一致性原理,将中、新生代火山岩浆作用分为四个火山活动旋回,圈定了相应的火山机构或火山喷发中心,建立了竹田头复活破火山演化模式。新生代玄武岩中发现二辉斜长麻粒岩等深源包体,为研究区域深部地质作用过程提供了证据。侵入岩按岩石谱系单元划分了七个岩石单元一个超单元,将侵入岩-潜火山岩-火山岩作为岩浆作用整体研究,为正确阐明岩浆作用及其演化规律奠定了基础。区域线型构造发育,与环形火山构造组合,形成火山岩区特有的线一环构造格局。中上元古界陈蔡群变质岩划分为上、下两个岩组,探讨了变质岩的原岩性质及其形成的大地构造环境。 相似文献
8.
Three mutually dependent elements are required for the application of life cycle assessment: methodology, data and software. Obviously, the design of software is determined by the methodology and the type of data available. Conversely, the development of software dictates the way in which data should be collected and recorded, and improves the theoretical framework, as it forces one to state the principles clearly and unambiguously. The influence of the development of software on both data and methodology is addressed and illustrated by examples, with reference to two key terms: transparency and explicitness. Three types of influence are distinguished: the design of a protocol, the formulation in terms of recipes, and the presentation of data. 相似文献
9.
Liu Quanyou 《环境科学学报(英文版)》1995,7(3):360-367
BiogeochemicalsulphurcycleinHaiheRiverBasinLiuQuanyou(ResearchCenterforEco-EnvironmentalSciences.ChineseAcademyofSceiences,Be... 相似文献
10.
This paper explores the practical application of life cycle assessment (LCA) to product system development. While life cycle assessment methods have been studied and demonstrated extensively over the last two decades, their application to product design and development has not been critically addressed. Many organizational and operational factors limit the integration of the three LCA components (inventory analysis, impact assessment and improvement assessment) with product development. Design of the product system can be considered a synthesis of individual decisions and choices made by the design team, which ultimately shape the system's environmental profile. The environmental goal of life cycle design is to minimize the aggregate environmental impacts associated with the product system. Appropriate environmental information must be supplied to decision makers throughout each stage of the development process to achieve this goal. LCA can serve as a source of this information, but informational requirements can vary as the design moves from its conceptual phase, where many design choices are possible, to its detailed design and implementation. Streamlined approaches and other tools, such as design checklists, are essential. The practical use of this tool in product development also depends on the nature and complexity of the product system (e.g. new vs. established), the product development cycle (time-to-market constraints), availability of technical and financial resources, and the design approach (integrated vs. serial). These factors will influence the role and scope of LCA in product development. Effective communication and evaluation of environmental information and the integration of this information with cost, performance, cultural and legal criteria will also be critical to the success of design initiatives based on the life cycle framework. An overview of several of these design initiatives will be presented. 相似文献