Chaos and complexity in development

SUMMARY

The paper outlines some main features of chaos theory. Examples of chaotic systems in society and the environment are given. Spontaneous interaction of components, without being planned or directed, is known as ‘self-organising behaviour’. Chaos is an essential aspect of this self organisation, occurring in many forms. A chaotic system is defined as one that shows sensitivity to initial conditions. If the errors relative to the initial conditions become too great, the system will eventually collapse. Development projects are sensitive to such initial conditions. In particular, two examples in development are outlined in some detail and commented upon. One is the occurrence of a project promoting self-organising systems among the poorest of the poor. The other outlines how rehabilitation after resettlement in a power project has transgressed the ‘edge of chaos’ socio-emotionally, in spite of the socioeconomic development being good.     

Writing it down: suggestions for a new approach towards understanding pro-environmental behaviour

A fashionable field of enquiry – the relationship between expressed attitudes and actual behaviour in the context of sustainable development – is complex (Staats et al. 2004 Staats, H, Harland, P and Wilke, H. 2004. Effecting durable change: a team approach to improve environmental behaviour in the household. Environ Behav., 36(3): 341–367. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and difficult to apply in a policy-relevant manner (Aall and Norland 2005 Aall, C and Norland, I. 2005. The use of the ecological footprint in local politics and administration: results and implications from Norway. Local Environ., 10(2): 159–172. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). However, recent research indicates that the use of a household diary can be beneficial in helping to quantify household environmental impact, in educating householders about their impact, and in identifying major ‘behavioural turning points’, where householders may focus efforts to reduce their environmental impact (Hunter et al. 2006 Hunter, C, Carmichael, K and Pangbourne, K. 2006. Household ecological footprinting using a new diary-based data-gathering approach. Local Environ, 11(3): 307–327. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). In other words, the use of a diary by householders is a potentially powerful tool in encouraging and facilitating desired behavioural change. This paper reports on the initial findings of an innovative study that assessed the use of a household diary approach as a means of framing and collecting household environmental data and, critically, as an educational vehicle for bringing about behavioural change. Based on the initial findings, it is clear that there is some potential to develop practical policy measures that empower householders by allowing them to better grasp their environmental impact and, consequently, recoup positive implications in terms of financial savings (e.g. reducing the amount of food thrown out) and health benefits (e.g. more walking/cycling).     

Raising awareness of transport issues: The potential to bring about behavioural change?

Changes in the directions of transport policy in the UK in the last few years have led to a wider consideration of possible measures to bring about behavioural change, in particular measures which have the potential to reduce car dependence. Among the measures currently being implemented by local authorities are public awareness or travel awareness campaigns. This paper examines the findings of a research project which evaluated a travel awareness scheme in the context of an integrated transport policy. The research project monitored the attitudes, beliefs and intentions of a sample of the residents who had been targeted by the Maidstone Initiative for Sustainable Transport (MIST) implemented by Kent County Council and Maidstone Borough Council. The research project found some remarkably consistent attitudes about car and bus travel over a period of three years, It also found that whilst people seem to be aware of the impact of travel on the environment they do not consider the environmental impact with the same degree of importance as other attributes of travel. A further finding was a hidden desire to switch modes from the car. The paper will conclude by looking critically at the future for travel awareness campaigns.     

不同浓度的五氯酚对斑马鱼运动行为的影响

由于突发性水源污染频发,建立一种实时的风险监测评估系统十分迫切。本研究通过在线生物监测仪实时记录斑马鱼在五氯酚(PCP)中暴露前后的3D行为响应数据,分别从运动轨迹、游动速度(中值)、浮出水面频率及熵值4个指标分析斑马鱼的行为响应。结果表明：与对照组相比,暴露于低浓度(0.25、0.5 mg·L^-1)的PCP中的斑马鱼,其游动速度(中值)和熵值呈递减趋势,但趋势不明显,其浮出水面频率有不同程度的增加;而暴露于较高浓度(1.0、2.0 mg·L^-1)的PCP中的斑马鱼,其游动速度(中值)、浮出水面频率、熵值约有10 min的急速升高之后降低;暴露于高浓度(4.0 mg·L^-1)的PCP中的斑马鱼,所有指标均呈明显下降趋势。这表明斑马鱼的毒性行为响应随PCP的浓度变化而变化,所以可以通过监测鱼类的行为变化来反映水体的污染状况。因此,鱼类行为学研究在高浓度突发性水源污染的实时监测方面具有一定的应用前景。     

Incorporating behaviour into simple models of dispersal using the biological control agent Dicyphus hesperus

We explored the utility of incorporating easily measured, biologically realistic movement rules into simple models of dispersal. We depart from traditional random walk models by designing an individual-based simulation model where we decompose animal movement into three separate processes: emigration, between-patch movement, and immigration behaviour. These processes were quantified using experiments on the omnivorous insect Dicyphus hesperus moving through a tomato greenhouse. We compare the predictions of the individual-based model, along with a series of biased random walk models, against an independent experimental release of D. hesperus. We find that in this system, the short-term dispersal of these insects is described well by our individual-based model, but can also be described by a 2D grid-based biased random walk model when mortality is accounted for.     

Towards a complex model of disaster behaviour

This paper outlines why a move towards a complex adaptive systems model of behaviour is required if the goal is to generate better understanding of how individuals and groups interact with their environment in a disaster setting. To accomplish this objective, a bridge must be built between the broader social sciences and behavioural economics to incorporate discipline‐specific insights that are needed to move towards complexity. This is only possible through a deeper understanding of behaviour and how the environment in which they occur can influence actions. It is then that one can counteract the poor behavioural predictions, flawed policies based on myth, inefficient design, and suboptimal outcomes that have flourished in the absence of a complex adaptive systems model. This paper provides a conceptual framework that draws on concepts from across the natural and social sciences, such as behavioural economics, endocrinology, psychology, sociobiology, and sociology in order to build an interactive theory of disaster behaviour.     

Identifying fishing trip behaviour and estimating fishing effort from VMS data using Bayesian Hidden Markov Models

Recent advances in technologies have lead to a vast influx of data on movements, based on discrete recorded position of animals or fishing boats, opening new horizons for future analyses. However, most of the potential interest of tracking data depends on the ability to develop suitable modelling strategies to analyze trajectories from discrete recorded positions. A serious modelling challenge is to infer the evolution of the true position and the associated spatio-temporal distribution of behavioural states using discrete, error-prone and incomplete observations. In this paper, a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (HBM) using Hidden Markov Process (HMP) is proposed as a template for analyzing fishing boats trajectories based on data available from satellite-based vessel monitoring systems (VMS). The analysis seeks to enhance the definition of the fishing pressure exerted on fish stocks, by discriminating between the different behavioural states of a fishing trip, and also by quantifying the relative importance of each of these states during a fishing trip. The HBM approach is tested to analyse the behaviour of pelagic trawlers in the Bay of Biscay. A hidden Markov chain with a regular discrete time step is used to model transitions between successive behavioural states (e.g., fishing, steaming, stopping (at Port or at sea)) of each vessel. The parameters of the movement process (speed and turning angles) are defined conditionally upon the behavioural states. Bayesian methods are used to integrate the available data (typically VMS position recorded at discrete time) and to draw inferences on any unknown parameters of the model. The model is first tested on simulated data with different parameters structures. Results provide insights on the potential of HBM with HMP to analyze VMS data. They show that if VMS positions are recorded synchronously with the instants at which the process switch from one behavioural state to another, the estimation method provides unbiased and precise inferences on behavioural states and on associated movement parameters. However, if the observations are not gathered with a sufficiently high frequency, the performance of the estimation method could be drastically impacted when the discrete observations are not synchronous with the switching instants. The model is then applied to real pathways to estimate variables of interest such as the number of operations per trip, time and distance spent fishing or travelling.     

Social network properties within a fish assemblage invaded by non-native sunbleak Leucaspius delineatus

Network theory is commonly used to reveal social interactions and the organisation of interconnected nodes—but has not yet been applied to animal invasions. Non-native species invasions are now considered one of the foremost threats to natural ecosystems and biodiversity. This is the first attempt to assess social network properties within a freshwater fish assemblage invaded by a non-native fish species. We show that invasive sunbleak Leucaspius delineatus is socially more strongly interconnected with native species than the native species with each other. The social networks also reveal characteristics of a ‘small world’ such as low clustering coefficients C and short path lengths L. The findings may indicate potential traits of successful invaders and the implication for the spread of pathogens between individuals within a group of animals that contain a non-native invasive species. The success of establishment and subsequent invasion may be highlighted not only by the capacity of the new species to adapt to the new environment, but also in its capacity to penetrate the social circle of the native community.     

Measuring love and care for nature

This study aimed to develop a psychometrically sound measure of the construct of love and deep caring for nature as an expression of people’s personal and explicitly emotional relationship with nature. Expert opinion and pre-pilot surveys were employed for refinement of the item pool, and a sample of 307 university students was used in a major pilot study aiming to further purify scale items. A field trial was conducted using a sample of 261 tourists at leisure with nature. The final 15-item Love and Care for Nature (LCN) scale is differentiated from established measures of similar constructs, and demonstrates high internal consistency and sound validity. This research extends the psychological frameworks of environmental altruism, and has also taken the philosophical concept of biophilia, as love for nature, into the operational realm by making it perceptible and measurable.     

Copper oxide nanoparticles can induce toxicity to the freshwater shredder Allogamus ligonifer

Increased commercialisation of nanometal-based products augments the possibility of their deposition into aquatic ecosystems; this, in turn, may pose risks to aquatic biota and associated ecological functions. Freshwater invertebrate shredders mostly use microbially-colonized plant litter as food resource and play an important role in aquatic detritus food webs. We assessed lethal effects of nanoCuO on the shredder Allogamus ligonifer (Trichoptera, Limnephilidae) by determining the concentration that induced 50% of death (LC₅₀), and sublethal effects of nanoCuO on the feeding behaviour and growth of the shredder by exposing the animals to: (i) stream water supplemented with nanoCuO and microbially-colonized leaves, and (ii) stream water (without nanoCuO) and microbially-colonized leaves pre-exposed to nanoCuO. Results from acute lethal tests showed that the 96 h LC₅₀ of nanoCuO was very high (569 mg L⁻¹). In the absence of nanoparticles, leaf consumption rate was 0.27 mg leaf DM mg⁻¹ animal DM d⁻¹ and the shredder growth rate was 56 μg animal DM mg⁻¹ animal DM d⁻¹. A significant inhibition in leaf consumption rate (up to 47%) and invertebrate growth rate (up to 46%) was observed when shredders were exposed to the higher tested sublethal concentration of nanoCuO (75 mg L⁻¹) through either contaminated stream water or pre-contaminated food. The exposure to increased nanoCuO concentration via water or pre-contaminated food led to higher accumulation of copper in the larval body. Leached water-soluble ionic copper from the nanoCuO adsorbed or accumulated in the shredder (up to 10.2% of total Cu) seemed to influence the feeding behaviour and growth of the shredder.