Travelling without a helmet: tourists' vulnerabilities and responses to disasters in Indonesia

Tourists are particularly vulnerable when natural disasters occur in regions that they are visiting. It is assumed that they lack awareness and understanding of the actions that they need to take in such circumstances. This study examines the responses of tourists in times of disaster, building on empirical data collected through large‐scale surveys conducted in Bali and Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in 2015. Both are important tourist destinations in the country that have suffered major disasters in recent years. The different types of responses to these events are framed using a grid/group analysis stemming from cultural theory. The study resulted in three key findings: (i) current disaster management planning largely follows a single rationale; (ii) tourists are not a homogeneous group, but rather a complex, diverse, and dynamic body of stakeholders; and (iii) the focus of disaster management planning should shift from a single rationale to a polyrational methodology. Disaster managers need to consider, therefore, these different aspects in the context of preparedness.     

Habitat segregation mediates predation by the benthic fish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cottus gobio</Emphasis> on the exotic amphipod species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus roeseli</Emphasis>

Predation is often considered as one of the most important biotic factor determining the success of exotic species. The freshwater amphipod Gammarus roeseli has widely colonized Western Europe, where it is frequently found in sympatry with the native species (Gammarus pulex). Previous laboratory experiments revealed that G. roeseli may have an advantage over G. pulex through differential predation by native fish (brown trout). Morphological anti-predator defences (spines) were found responsible for lower rates of predation on the invasive G. roeseli. Here, using both field surveys and laboratory experiments, we tested if a differential of predation exists with other fish predators naturally encountered by gammarids. The main predators present in our field site were nocturnal benthic feeders (mainly bullheads, Cottus gobio). Fish diet analysis showed that, compared to its global availability in the river, G. roeseli was less consumed than G. pulex. In the field, however, G. roeseli was found mainly in the aquatic vegetation whereas G. pulex was found in all habitat types. Laboratory experiments in microcosms revealed that G. roeseli was less prone to predation by C. gobio only when vegetation was present. Depending on the type of predator, the differential of predation could therefore be mediated by antipredator behaviour, and a better usage of refuges, rather than by morphological defences.     

Personality, individual differences, and demographic antecedents of self-reported household waste management behaviours

The present study sought to extend recent conceptual frameworks of waste management behaviours by examining personality, individual differences, and socio-demographic antecedents of self-reported waste recycling, reuse, and reduction behaviours. A total of 203 participants from a British community sample completed a questionnaire consisting of measures of their self-reported waste management behaviour, Machiavellianism, political cynicism, the Big Five personality traits, and socio-demographics. The results of structural equation modelling showed that individuals who were less Machiavellian, less politically cynical, older, and more conscientious were more likely to report positive waste management behaviours. In combination, these predictors explained 22.0% of the variance in waste management behaviours. Thus, these variables may improve the predictive validity of existing conceptual models of waste management behaviours. The results are discussed in relation to those models.     

Estimating dyad association probability under imperfect and heterogeneous detection

In animal behaviour studies, association indices estimate the proportion of time two individuals (i.e. a dyad) spend in association. In terms of dyads, all association indices can be interpreted as estimators of the probability that a dyad is associated. However, traditional indices rely on the assumptions that the probability to detect a particular individual (p) is either approximately one and/or homogeneous between associated and not associated individuals. Based on marked individuals we develop a likelihood based model to estimate the probability a dyad is associated (ψ) accounting for p < 1 and possibly varying between associated and not associated individuals. The proposed likelihood based model allows for both individual and dyadic missing observations. In addition, the model can easily be extended to incorporate covariate information for modeling p and ψ. A simulation study showed that the likelihood based model approach yield reasonably unbiased estimates, even for low and heterogeneous individual detection probabilities, while, in contrast, traditional indices showed moderate to strong biases. The application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a real data set collected from a population of Commerson's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus commersonii) in Patagonia Argentina. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the proposed model and its applicability in animal behaviour and ecological studies.     

Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.     

Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications

Understanding and being able to predict forest fire occurrence, fire growth and fire intensity are important aspects of forest fire management. In Canada fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to help predict these elements of forest fire activity. In this paper a review of the CFFDRS is presented with the main focus on understanding and interpreting Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. The need to interpret the outputs of the FWI System with consideration to regional differences is emphasized and examples are shown of how the relationship between actual fuel moisture and the FWI System’s moisture codes vary from region to region. Examples are then shown of the relationship between fuel moisture and fire occurrence for both human- and lightning-caused fire for regions with different forest composition. The relationship between rate of spread, fuel consumption and the relative fire behaviour indices of the FWI System for different forest types is also discussed. The outputs of the CFFDRS are used every day across Canada by fire managers in every district, regional and provincial fire management office. The purpose of this review is to provide modellers with an understanding of this system and how its outputs can be interpreted. It is hoped that this review will expose statistical modellers and other researchers to some of the models used currently in forest fire management and encourage further research and development of models useful for understanding and managing forest fire activity.

Rats on the run: removal of alien terrestrial predators affects bush rat behaviour

Predators can strongly influence the microhabitat use and foraging behaviour of prey. In a large-scale replicated field experiment in East Gippsland, Australia, we tested the effects of reduced alien red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and alien wild dog (Canis lupus familiaris) abundance (treatment) on native bush rat (Rattus fuscipes) behaviour. Bush rats are exposed to two main guilds of predators, namely mammalian carnivores and birds of prey. Tracking rat movements using the spool-and-line technique revealed that, in treatment sites, rats used ground cover, which provides shelter from predators, less often than at unmanipulated fox and wild dog abundance (non-treatment sites). In treatment sites, rats more frequently moved on logs where they would have been exposed to hunting foxes and dogs than in non-treatment sites. Furthermore, in treatments, rats showed a preference for understorey but not in non-treatments. Hence, bush rats adapted their behaviour to removal of alien terrestrial predators. Giving-up densities (GUDs) indicated no treatment effects on the marginal feeding rate of bush rats. Interestingly, GUDs were higher in open patches than in sheltered patches, suggesting higher perceived predation risk of bush rats during foraging at low versus high cover. The lack of treatment effects on GUDs but the clear response of bush rats to cover may be explained by the impact of predators other than foxes and wild dogs.     

Cryptic prey colouration increases search time in brown trout (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmo trutta</Emphasis>): effects of learning and body size

Little is known about how cryptic colouration influences prey search in near-surface aquatic habitats, although such knowledge is critical for understanding the adaptive value of colour crypsis as well as the perceptive constraints influencing foraging behaviour in these environments. This study had two main aims: (1) to investigate how background colour matching by prey affects foraging efficiency by brown trout parr and (2) to investigate how foraging ability on cryptic and conspicuous prey is affected by fish size at age (reflecting dominance). We addressed these questions by training wild brown trout parr to forage individually on live brown-coloured maggots on a cryptic (brown) or conspicuous (green) background. A separate experiment confirmed the absence of trout preference for brown or green substrate. The results show that prey background colour matching increases search time in brown trout. Search time generally decreased by learning, but conspicuous prey remained an easier prey to find throughout the six training trials. Thus, perceptive constraints appear to limit search efficiency for cryptic prey, suggesting that cryptic colouration can confer survival benefits to prey in natural environments. Smaller fish generally found conspicuous prey faster than larger individuals, whereas search time for cryptic prey was not influenced by body size. This suggests that smaller individuals compensate for inferior competitive ability by increasing foraging activity rather than improving cognitive ability. The technique of varying cognitive demands in behavioural tasks could be used more in future studies aimed at distinguishing motivational effects from cognitive explanations for variation in behavioural performance.     

正确认识市场经济和“政府行为”的关系

环境监测是一项政府行为,如何在社会主义市场经济条件下,正确处理“政府行为”与市场经济的矛盾,已成为各级环保部门共同探讨并需要妥善解决的问题。本文根据经济学的有关理论,对环境监测这一领域在社会主义市场经济中所处的地位、作用做了全面的论述,并对如何理解环境监测“政府行为”提出看法和见解。     

鸭绿江口的溶解无机氮

本文讨论了１９９６年５月鸭绿江溶解无机氮的含量和分布变化特征，并同其他一些河口作了比较，鸭绿江口ＮＯ３－Ｎ，ＮＯ２－Ｎ，ＮＨ４－Ｎ的平均含量分别为５０．３．０．４５和３．０５μｍｏｌ／Ｌ，而丹东上游鸭绿江支流瑗河下降的溶解无机氮浓度很高，达２０３．４μｍｏｌ／Ｌ，主要由农业施用氮肥大量从耕用地中流失所致。