The effects of sport fishing growth on behavior of commercial fishermen in Balbina reservoir, Amazon, Brazil

An important alternative for sustainable use of tucunaré stocks and improvement in fishermen welfare in Balbina reservoir, Central Amazon, would be to train commercial fisherman to also become tourist guides for sport fishing. In this study, we modeled fishermen response to this question, in order to evaluate the acceptance of such an idea. Thus, we surveyed 47 fishermen, who currently comprise approximately 75% of the total fishermen population. This survey was implemented during December of 2001 and January of 2002. We used a probity analysis to run two models. The first model includes the variables: family size, school level, fishing time, residence time and boat ownership. On the other hand, the second model includes the number of children under and above eight years old but not the family size. Both models are significant and the most relevant variables are: fishing time (years of participation of fisherman is in the activity) and residence time (length of residency of particular fishermen live at the village nearby the reservoir).     

推行定置管理促进安全文明生产

定置管理是优化生产现场为研究对象。研究生产要素中人、物、场所的状况以及三者在生产活动中的相互关系。使人、物、场所处于最佳结合状态。定置管理不仅有效地促进了厂区的文明化，强化了运输处的现场综合治理，同时，也推动了运输处广大职工的精神文明建设。提高了广大职工安全生产意识，它已成为运输处企业管理的一项基础性工作，同时，也保证了文明生产和安全生产。     

Spatial based compromise programming for multiple criteria decision making in land use planning

Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L _p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.     

长江禁捕典型省域渔民生态种养采纳意愿及其驱动路径研究

当前,构建以渔民生态种养为主的生计转型长效机制,确保渔民“稳得住,能致富”是政府部门和学术界共同关注的重点。本文基于“生计恢复力”理论构建了“缓冲—自组织—学习”三维分析框架,借助必要条件分析（NCA）和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）两种分析方法,从组态视角对长江退捕渔民生态种养采纳意愿的关键驱动条件、作用路径和潜在替代关系进行研究。研究发现：(1)NCA与QCA分析结果显示,单一条件无法形成渔民生态种养采纳意愿程度高的必要条件,但fsQCA组态分析显示,自组织能力尤其是对奖补惠及和政策新闻的关注能单独引致解释结果的产生。(2)渔民生态种养采纳意愿存在三种驱动路径,分别是自组织主导型、自组织—学习驱动型和缓冲—学习驱动型。同时,渔民生态种养采纳意愿存在三种抑制类型,分别是学习抑制型、自组织—学习抑制型及缓冲—自组织抑制型。(3)在特定条件下,自组织能力可以与其他两种能力的条件组合等效替代,以“殊途同归”的方式提升渔民生态种养采纳意愿。     

一种城市生态系统健康评价方法及其应用

利用集对分析方法,将评价城市生态系统健康状况的多个指标系统合成一个与最优评价集的相对贴近度,用来描述城市生态系统健康状况.运用集对分析方法,以北京、大连、上海、武汉、厦门、广州等城市为例,对1995～2003年间的城市生态系统健康进行了评价.结果表明,不同时期各城市生态系统健康状况排序有所变化,但厦门和广州一直名列前茅.此外,对北京1992～2003年间城市生态系统健康状况的变化情况进行了具体分析,结果显示,北京城市生态系统健康状况随着时间的推移而不断改善.     

区域生态环境质量的集对评价模型及应用

建立了利用集对分析方法进行区域生态环境评价的新模型,并通过实例研究了区域生态环境质量状况。与未确知测度评价方法进行比较,取得了满意的结果,实例应用表明:该评价模型结构严谨,评价结果合理、精细、分辨率高,为区域生态环境评价提供了一种简单而适用的评价方法。     

Reliability evaluation of fire alarm systems using dynamic Bayesian networks and fuzzy fault tree analysis

In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events.     

饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析

根据常规事故树定量计算中基本事件概率的不确定性问题,通过引入模糊集的概念,将常规事故树中基本事件的发生概率模糊化,用三角形模糊数代替确定性发生概率,应用模糊数截集方法,推导了模糊事故树的相关算法.采用模糊事故树方法得到饮食业油烟道火灾事故发生概率,并进行了敏感性分析,找出对顶事件发生概率影响较大的基本事件,确认减小油烟道火灾事故发生的相关措施.研究表明,饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析是切实可行的,有助于对饮食业油烟道火灾的认识、预防和扑救工作.     

浅析低瓦斯煤矿瓦斯防治安全评价

笔者结合煤矿安全评价工作的经验,通过运用预先危险分析对低瓦斯煤矿瓦斯防治进行分析,得出瓦斯爆炸是最严重的瓦斯事故。进而通过对瓦斯爆炸的事故树分析,得出了导致瓦斯爆炸的27个基本事件。应用事故树分析中的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,对瓦斯爆炸进行了研究。结果表明,瓦斯爆炸不发生所必须的最低限度的基本事件集合即最小径集有6个,其中严格控制瓦斯浓度,杜绝一切火源,是预防煤矿瓦斯爆炸的最重要途径。从源头上防止瓦斯爆炸的发生,提高我国煤矿安全生产水平。     

自然环境对风力发电机组安全运行的影响分析

风力发电机组野外运行的特点决定了自然环境条件对其运行状况有着重要的影响,本文综述了气压、气温、台风、雷击、盐雾等自然条件对风力发电机组的影响状况,并对其产生的机理进行了分析,给出在各种自然环境下的风电机组设计和运行应对措施,以提高风电机组对自然环境条件的适应性。希望本文能对国内风电机组的设计制造、运行维护提供一定的参考和帮助。