A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: Is it possible to apply a robustness framework?

Attribution studies investigate the causes of recent global warming. For a few decades the scientific community generally adopted dynamical models – the so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) – for such an investigation. These models show the essential role of anthropogenic forcings in driving the temperature behaviour of the last half century. In the last period even other (data-driven) methodological approaches were adopted for attribution studies. This allows the scientific community to compare the results coming from these different approaches and to possibly increase their robustness. For such a purpose, the paper explores the possibility of applying a robustness framework, so far used only in the case of multi-model GCM ensembles, to a strategy including models from different methodological orientations, assessing such an application especially in the light of the independence issue.     

Sustainable tyre remanufacturing: an agent-based simulation modelling approach

This paper addresses sustainable benefits of remanufacturing tyres. An agent-based simulation approach is used to tackle this research problem by identifying different agents such as tyre, collector, recycler and remanufacturer. Details related to every agent are provided to show the decisions taken by these agents and the impact that may have on tyres' remanufacturing industry. Relying on input data from published reports and papers by academics and professional organisations, experiments are conducted on various scenarios to show the benefits of increasing the retread percentage of passenger car tyres. The results show that retreaded tyre can capture almost 25% of replacement (sales) market, resulting in significant reduction in scrap tyres and raw material consumption. This percentage can further be increased by increasing the number of retreads per used tyre and the life of tread rubber. The output results help in finding the profit break‐even point at various levels of retread. The results also show other decision-making implications, particularly related to rejection rate and ways to reduce it.     

Radiocaesium accumulation in stemwood: integrated approach at the scale of forest stands for contaminated Scots pine in Belarus

Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident, root uptake from the surface layers of contaminated forest soils plays a major role in radiocaesium ((137)Cs) transfer to the trees and accumulation in perennial compartments, including stemwood. Trustworthy long-term predictions (modelling) of stemwood contamination with (137)Cs should accordingly be based on a reliable picture of this source-sink relationship. Considering the complexity of the processes involved in (137)Cs cycling in forest stands, elementary ratios like transfer factors (TF) were shown to be not very relevant for that purpose. At the tree level, alternatives like the wood immobilisation potential (WIP) have therefore been proposed in order to quantify the current net (137)Cs accumulation in stemwood. Our objective was here to compare WIP values determined for a series of contaminated forest stands in Belarus with the corresponding pools of (137)Cs available in the soil for root uptake. The comparison reveals that both indices are quite proportional, whatever the forest ecosystem features. This corroborates the relevancy of WIP as an indicator of the current (137)Cs root uptake by the trees, which could accordingly help to improve the existing models of (137)Cs cycling and the long-term management of contaminated forest ecosystems.     

Detection and visualization of storm hydrograph changes under urbanization: an impulse response approach

Urbanization often alters catchment storm responses, with a broad range of potentially significant environmental and engineering consequences. At a practical, site-specific management level, efficient and effective assessment and control of such downstream impacts requires a technical capability to rapidly identify development-induced storm hydrograph changes. The method should also speak specifically to alteration of internal watershed dynamics, require few resources to implement, and provide results that are intuitively accessible to all watershed stakeholders. In this short paper, we propose a potential method which might satisfy these criteria. Our emphasis lies upon the integration of existing concepts to provide tools for pragmatic, relatively low-cost environmental monitoring and management. The procedure involves calibration of rainfall-runoff time-series models in each of several successive time windows, which sample varying degrees of watershed urbanization. As implemented here, only precipitation and stream discharge or stage data are required. The readily generated unit impulse response functions of these time-series models might then provide a mathematically formal, yet visually based and intuitive, representation of changes in watershed storm response. Nominally, the empirical response functions capture such changes as soon as they occur, and the assessments of storm hydrograph alteration are independent of variability in meteorological forcing. We provide a preliminary example of how the technique may be applied using a low-order linear ARX model. The technique may offer a fresh perspective on such watershed management issues, and potentially also several advantages over existing approaches. Substantial further testing is required before attempting to apply the concept as a practical environmental management technique; some possible directions for additional work are suggested.     

An integrated approach to modeling resource utilization for rural communities in developing countries

Resource consumption in developing countries has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. What has been understudied however, has been the feedback affects of resource consumption on resource availability to both households and communities. Heavy reliance on natural resources and intensive smallholder agriculture common to many rural communities in developing countries has forced people to fulfill short-term needs to the detriment of long-term ecological and livelihood sustainability. This paper introduces a conceptual framework to examine how individuals and households fulfill daily caloric needs and the aggregate effects on resource availability and consumption. Data were collected from a large number of published case studies of rural land-use dynamics, growth and yield models, and human livelihoods were reviewed from scientific journals, reports published by NGOs, and government reports. Using inputs defined by the user, the model tracks annual fuelwood and agricultural land use based on meeting individual energy demands. A case-study-based analysis was patterned after smallholder agriculturalists at the family and community level. Three scenarios are presented in this paper using data from Uganda to illustrate the application of this model.     

Carbon sinks and sources in China's forests during 1901-2001

This paper reports the annual carbon (C) balance of China's forests during 1901-2001 estimated using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem C-budget model (InTEC). Annual carbon source and sink distributions are simulated for the same period using various spatial datasets including land cover and leaf area index (LAI) obtained from remote sensing, soil texture, climate, forest age, and nitrogen deposition. During 1901-1949, China's forests were a source of 21.0+/-7.8 Tg C yr(-1) due to disturbances (human activities). Its size increased to 122.3+/-25.3 Tg C yr(-1) during 1950-1987 due to intensified human activities in the late 1950s, early 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. The forests became large sinks of 176.7+/-44.8 Tg C yr(-1) during 1988-2001, owing to large-scale plantation and forest regrowth in previously disturbed areas as well as growth stimulation by nondisturbance factors such as climatic warming, atmospheric CO(2) fertilization, and N deposition. From 1901 to 2001, China's forests were a small carbon source of 3.32 Pg C, about 32.9+/-22.3 Tg C yr(-1). The overall C balance in biomass from InTEC generally agrees with previous results derived from forest inventories of China's forests. InTEC results also include C stock variation in soils and are therefore more comprehensive than previous results. The uncertainty in InTEC results is still large, but it can be reduced if a detailed forest age map becomes available.     

Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.     

Supply responses in tropical forestry: A Malaysian case study

The rapid exhaustion of Malaysia's commercial primaeval forest base has raised questions regarding the management and economic responses in the sector. The article assesses the institutional and management structure of Malaysian forestry which, together with the social and political barriers at work, prevent an orderly programme of harvesting and reforestation. The supply is then set out in terms of an econometric model, formulated both in static and dynamic terms to measure, among other things, the responses of output to price changes. The model, which is the first of its kind to be tested for the Malaysian forestry sector, is applied on three wood-based commodities — sawlogs, sawnwood and plywood. To learn of possible regional variations, the model is also applied to data of the country's three principal components — Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah. The results indicate that short-run price elasticities of supply are low, and in some cases, even contrary to expectations based on economic theory. Allowing for data inconsistencies, the slow responses of output to changes in price may be attributed to the method of wood disposal, its timing as well as the social and political barriers to entry at work in the sector.     

Eclogites with a short-lived granulite facies overprint in the Moldanubian Zone, Czech Republic: petrology, geochemistry and diffusion modelling of garnet zoning

The petrology and geochemistry of a newly discovered suite of high-pressure garnet + clinopyroxene-bearing rocks from the Monotonous Series of the Moldanubian Zone of the Bohemian Massif, southwest Czech Republic have been investigated. Three types [common eclogites, quartz ± kyanite ± (clino)zoisite eclogites and garnet-hornblende-clinopyroxenites] are distinguished by petrography and geochemistry. All underwent a significant degree of partial breakdown under granulite and amphibolite facies conditions during exhumation. Important features include the growth of orthopyroxene in breakdown domains after garnet and omphacite and anorthite + spinel ± corundum ± exceedingly peraluminous sapphirine replacing kyanite. Garnet zoning and inclusion patterns support a prograde evolution from low pressures for at least some of the samples. The post-eclogite stage granulite facies overprint indicates that high temperatures prevailed during exhumation, but preservation of zoning in some garnets and the results of diffusion modelling suggest that this overprint took place over a very short time-scale. The geochemical and petrological results allow characteristic differences to be recognized between these eclogites and metabasites found in other tectonic units of South Bohemia and consequently the assigning of all high-pressure rocks to a single, now disrupted, tectonic unit is a gross simplification that seriously misrepresents the tectono-metamorphic history of the region.