环境质量的模糊综合评判—灰色关联分析

本文简要分析了环境质量评价中目前广泛应用的各种评价方法与模型。在此基础上提出环境质量综合评判－灰色关联优势分析复合模型，应用于黄山风景区景观生态环境质量的综合评价，取得了满意的结果。     

Ecological modelling of nitrate pollution in small river basins by spreadsheets and GIS

With the increasing importance and awareness of water quality in the small basins, the modelling system is developed for monitoring and predictions of surface water pollution. The compartment model deals with basin characteristics extended by land cover attributes. The parameters of the model are estimated by experimental data of water quality together with land cover types that serve as nutrient detention media or transformers. The study examines methodology to determine the potential areas of nitrate pollution from point and non-point sources by remote sensing techniques. Classification of water, agricultural, forest and urban areas is processed with satellite images (LANDSAT 7). Whereas the agricultural and urban areas act as sources of pollution, forest zones operate as sinks. The nitrate levels are decreased downstream, if the proportion of the forest inside contribution zones increases. The modelling system is used to simulate amounts of nitrates in each compartment of the stream during the monitored period of one year. The number of compartments and their lengths are estimated on the basis of morphology of the basin. Simulation of the dynamic model is carried out with the TabSim. Geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing tools are used to manage and estimate nitrate inflows from point and non-point sources of pollution. The article presents the spatial and time variation of the nitrate (NO₃⁻) within the basin of the stream Rakovnický (the west part of Bohemia, the whole area of 368 km²). It is shown that the model approach extended by the GIS and remote sensing can support decision-making process for better management practices in the basins.     

Efficient and sustainable management of complex forest ecosystems

A large range of models has been developed for the analysis of optimal forest management strategies, with the well-known Faustmann models dating back to the mid-19th century. To date, however, there has been relatively little attention for the implications of complex ecosystem dynamics for optimal forest management. This paper examines the implications of irreversible ecosystem responses for efficient and sustainable forest management. The paper is built around two forest models that comprise two ecosystem components, forest cover and topsoil, the interactions between these components, and the supply of the ecosystem services ‘wood’ and ‘erosion control’. The first model represents a forest that responds in a reversible way to overharvesting. In the second model, an additional ecological process has been included and the ecosystem irreversibly collapses below certain thresholds in forest cover and topsoil depth. The paper presents a general model, and demonstrates the implications of pursuing efficient as well as sustainable forest management for the two forest ecosystems. Both fixed and variable harvesting cycles are examined. Efficient and sustainable harvesting cycles are compared, and it is shown that irreversible ecosystem behaviour reduces the possibilities to reconcile efficient and sustainable forest management through a variable harvesting cycle.     

Modelling algal blooms in the Dutch coastal waters by integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata approaches

In this paper, an integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata model was developed to predict possible algal blooms in Dutch coastal waters basing on the irradiance, nutrients and neighbourhood conditions. The numerical module used Delft3D-WAQ to compute the abiotic conditions, and fuzzy cellular automata approach was applied to predict the algal biomass that was indicated by chlorophyll a concentration. The simulated results of year 1995 were compared with that from BLOOM II model, and the advantages, disadvantages as well as future improvement were presented. In general, through this study, it is seen that the integrated modelling deserves more research inputs because: (1) the hydrodynamic processes and nutrients concentrations can be simulated in details by numerical method; (2) the irregular and sparse water quality and biological data, and the empirical knowledge from experts can be explored by the fuzzy logic technique; (3) the spatial heterogeneity, local interactions and the emerge of patchiness could be well captured through the cellular automata paradigm.     

The People and Landscape Model (PALM): Towards full integration of human decision-making and biophysical simulation models

A model for simulating resource flows in a rural subsistence community is described. The People and Landscape Model (PALM) consists of a number of agents representing households, the landscape, and livestock. The landscape is made up of a number of homogeneous land units, or ‘fields’, each represented by an object containing data, methods and properties relevant to the field. Each field object consists of a number of soil layer objects, each of which contains routines to calculate its water balance and carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Organic matter decomposition is simulated by a version of the CENTURY model, while water and nitrogen dynamics are simulated by versions of the routines in the DSSAT crop models. The soil processes are simulated continuously, and vegetation types (crops, weeds, trees) can come and go in a field depending on its management. Crop growth and development are simulated by a generic model based on the DSSAT crop models, and which can be parameterised for different crops. Similarly, livestock growth and resource use is simulated by a generic model which can be parameterised for buffalo, cows, goats, sheep, chickens and pigs.     

Assessment of herbaceous plant habitats in water-constrained environments: predicting indirect effects with fuzzy logic

Herbaceous plant production plays a key role in determining the function of rangeland ecosystems in the semi-arid and Mediterranean regions. Therefore, assessment of herbaceous plant habitats is important for understanding the ecosystem functioning in these regions and for applied purposes, such as range management and land evaluation. This paper presents a model to assess herbaceous plant habitats in a basaltic stony environment in a Mediterranean region. The model is based on geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing and fuzzy logic, while four indirect variables, which represent major characteristics of herbaceous habitats, are modeled: rock cover fraction; wetness index (WI); soil depth; and slope orientation (aspect). A linear unmixing model was used to measure rock cover on a per pixel basis using a Landsat TM summer image. The wetness index and local aspect were determined from digital elevation data with 25 m × 25 m pixel resolution, while soil data were gathered in a field survey. The modeling approach adopted here is process-based and assumes that water availability plays a crucial role in determining herbaceous plant production in Mediterranean and semi-arid environments. The model rules are based on fuzzy logic and are written based on the hypothesized water requirements of the herbaceous vegetation. The results show that on a polygon basis there is positive agreement between the model proposed here and previous mapping of the herbaceous habitats carried out in the field using traditional methods. Intrapolygon tests show that the use of a continuous raster data model and fuzzy logic principles provide an added value to traditional mapping. Moreover, herbaceous biomass measurements at two time intervals—mid- and peak winter season—corresponded with the habitat assessment predictions achieved using a new scenario that is proposed in this research. This scenario suggests that rockiness increases herbaceous production on south-facing slopes, while in other slope aspects the rock cover has lower impact on herbaceous growth. Due to its simplicity, the model suggested here can be used by planners and managers, to adjust range activities over large areas. The process-based approach should allow adaptation of the model to other regions more effectively than models that were formulated on a purely empirical basis. The model could also be used to study the relationship between water availability and ecosystem productivity on a regional scale.     

Application of a coupled ecosystem-chemical equilibrium model, DayCent-Chem, to stream and soil chemistry in a Rocky Mountain watershed

Atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species have the potential to acidify terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, but nitrate and ammonium are also critical nutrients for plant and microbial productivity. Both the ecological response and the hydrochemical response to atmospheric deposition are of interest to regulatory and land management agencies. We developed a non-spatial biogeochemical model to simulate soil and surface water chemistry by linking the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DayCent) with a low temperature aqueous geochemical model, PHREEQC. The coupled model, DayCent-Chem, simulates the daily dynamics of plant production, soil organic matter, cation exchange, mineral weathering, elution, stream discharge, and solute concentrations in soil water and stream flow. By aerially weighting the contributions of separate bedrock/talus and tundra simulations, the model was able to replicate the measured seasonal and annual stream chemistry for most solutes for Andrews Creek in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park. Simulated soil chemistry, net primary production, live biomass, and soil organic matter for forest and tundra matched well with measurements. This model is appropriate for accurately describing ecosystem and surface water chemical response to atmospheric deposition and climate change.     

计算机辅助确定外因火灾位置方法

系统介绍用计算机辅助确定矿井外因火灾位置方法的原理,给出该方法的具体步骤,剖析其定性分析、定量分析和定量分析结果评价三大步骤中的各技术关键,并借助一个实例验证了该方法实用的可行性     

斜坡稳定性的二级模糊推断

根据对斜坡稳定性影响的大小,选取了七个主要因于,引用了山西明水河流域几个斜坡样点实测数据．应用模糊近似推论方法及信息分配原理,对斜坡稳定性进行了单因子灰色隶属度分析及综合二级模糊近似推论,该方法克服了传统单因子评价的弊端,能比较真实地反映实际,为布设护坡工程提供了理论依据。     

伊春河河水水溶性腐殖酸内源释放模型

以水溶性腐殖酸含量很高的伊春河为例，利用冬季冰封无外源输入的条件，在有产室内模拟研究的基础上，通过现场采样及测定，建立了伊春河河水水溶性腐殖酸的内源释放模型，根据同期采集样品进行的验证表明，该模型能够准确地反映河流沉积物中水溶性瘁殖酸向河水中释放的速率以及速率与流速等条件的定量关系。