Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: Precautionary Science and Conflicts of Interests

Risk governance of GM plants and GMfood products is presently subject to heatedscientific and public controversies. Scientistsand representatives of the biotechnologyindustry have dominated debates concerningsafety issues. The public is suspicious withregard to the motives of scientists, companies,and political institutions involved. Thedilemmas posed are nested, embracing valuequestions, scientific uncertainty, andcontextual issues. The obvious lack of data andinsufficient information concerning ecologicaleffects call for application of thePrecautionary Principle (PP). There are,however, divergent opinions among scientistsabout the relevance of putative hazards,definition of potential ``adverse effects,' andwhether actions should be taken to preventharm. The reliance on the concept ofsubstantial equivalence in safety evaluation ofGM food is equally controversial. Consequently,value assumptions embedded in a scientificframework may be a barrier for employment ofthe PP. One of our major conclusions is thatprecautionary GMP usage requires riskassessment criteria yet undeveloped, as well asbroader and more long-term conceptions of risk,uncertainty, and ignorance. Conflicts ofinterest and public participation are otherissues that need to be taken intoconsideration. GMP governance regimes that arejustifiable from a precautionary and ethicalpoint of view must transcend traditionalscientific boundaries to include alternativescientific perspectives as well as publicinvolvement.     

基于灰色预测模型与一元线性回归模型的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测比较

在介绍灰色预测模型和一元线性回归模型的基础上,结合某煤矿实际,采用两种模型对瓦斯涌出量进行了预测,并对两种模型的预测值进行比较,结果表明:对基本符合线性关系的数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型较一元线性回归模型的预测精度要高。     

环境振动的灰色预测模型研究

利用 GIM( 1 )的非时序直接建模法来预测研究建筑施工的环境振动 ,并将 GIM( 1 )模型与 GM( 1 ,1 )模型进行比较分析。结果表明 GIM( 1 )模型的拟合精度优良 ,对原始资料中白化信息的利用更加丰富 ,拓宽了 GIM( 1 )模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围     

珠三角地区近20年城镇化与景观生态安全耦合协调分析

针对城镇化进程加快导致的珠三角地区生态景观胁迫程度日趋严峻,亟需加强区域生态保护的现状,构建新型城镇化与景观生态安全的耦合协调模型,定量测度2000—2020年珠三角地区城镇空间扩展与景观生态安全耦合协调时空格局以及发展状态,运用多元回归分析和灰色预测模型揭示其驱动机理,并预测2040年城镇空间扩展和景观生态安全耦合的发展趋势。结果表明：珠三角地区9市城镇化与景观生态安全的耦合协调度在20年间呈现缓慢波动上升的趋势,耦合协调度由2000年的0.305~0.436升至2020年的0.385~0.545,现处于拮抗耦合阶段,未来20年将继续向着协调同步、有序发展的方向前进。珠三角地区经济发展不平衡,城镇开发建设和生态环境保护难以同步发展,景观生态状况不乐观,生态环境滞后型的地市逐渐增多,尚未全面形成良好的协调发展状态。对外开放程度、经济发展水平、科技投入水平等因素对耦合协调度的影响较为显著（P<0.05）,今后对于区域可持续发展需要加强耦合协调的机理研究,持续关注城镇空间拓展与景观生态安全的协调发展趋势及特征。

     

Adult-onset GM2 gangliosidosis diagnosed in a fetus

Amniocentesis and subsequent tests are reported on a fetus conceived of a rare mating type: its mother has an intermediate level of β hexosaminidase A (HEX A), characteristic of carriers of Tay-Sachs disease (TSD), while the father suffers from an adult-onset GM₂ ganglio-sidosis (AOG) with severe HEX A deficiency. Activity of HEX A in the cultured fetal cells was very low when measured by the heat-inactivation method, thus showing the typical biochemical phenotype of TSD fetuses. However, upon separation of HEX isozymes by ion exchange chromatography, residual HEX A (17 per cent of total HEX) was demonstrated. Also in contrast to TSD fetuses, this fetus' fibroblasts were able to synthesize the precursor of a chains of HEX, and ultrastructural examination of its brain revealed few atypical lamellar bodies, unlike those found in TSD fetuses of the same gestational age. It is therefore concluded that the fetus was not affected with TSD, but rather with AOG.     

山西省CO2排放影响因素研究及情景分析

山西作为我国的能源大省,其碳排放强度更是持续位于全国最高水平,分析山西省CO₂排放影响因素,探究其发展模式,对于山西省的低碳发展意义重大.基于STIRPAT模型,将山西省能源CO₂排放的影响因素确定为人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、第二产业占GDP比重、能源强度.在岭回归拟合分析的基础上,利用灰色GM（1,1）模型对山西省CO₂排放驱动因素值进行预测,以提高能源CO₂排放预测的准确性,并结合情景分析方法,为山西省的CO₂减排设计了10种不同的发展情景.结果表明:①人口对山西省CO₂排放影响最大,其次是城镇化率和第二产业占GDP比重.②在当前经济发展阶段,能源强度和人均GDP等因素对山西省的CO₂排放影响不大,但能源强度对CO₂排放的抑制作用不可忽略.③山西省CO₂减排最佳的情景方案为适当控制人口数量和城镇化进程、加快产业结构的转型和技术的革新、降低第二产业占GDP比重和能源强度,并且大力推广新能源和清洁可再生能源的开发使用以优化能源消费结构.在该情景下,山西省2020年的CO₂排放量可以控制在5.16×108 t.      

基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病,在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型,在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子,将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设,提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象,进行数据拟合和预测分析,其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据,并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数,检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面,改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级,曲线拟合度较高,预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

地表水COD浓度灰色预测的GPPM（1）模型

根据地表水中ＣＯＤ浓度的时序数据,建立了ＧＰＰＭ（１）预测模型,结果表明ＧＰＰＭ（１）模型的预测精度优于常规灰色ＧＭ（１,１）模型,它为环境系统的拟合,预测和决策提供了新的方法途径。     

基于改进灰色模型的管壁蜡沉积厚度预测研究

为对含蜡原油管道中的蜡沉积厚度进行准确预测,在函数cot(x2)变换的基础上,结合平移变换思想,利用cot(x2+c)变换建立新的改进GM(1,1)模型。以现场管道结蜡数据和室内环道结蜡数据为例,对比改进GM(1,1)模型、基于函数cot(x2)变换建立的GM(1,1)模型及传统GM(1,1)模型之间的预测精度,并分析平移量c对改进GM(1,1)模型预测精度的影响。结果表明:改进GM(1,1)模型的预测精度最高,其次是基于函数cot(x2)变换建立的GM(1,1)模型,而传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度最低;随着平移量的增大,改进GM(1,1)模型的平均相对预测误差呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,因此合理的平移量有助于模型精度的提高。应用改进GM(1,1)模型来预测管道蜡沉积厚度是可行的,该方法可为含蜡原油管道蜡沉积厚度的准确预测提供参考和借鉴。     

Contribution of sociodemographic characteristics, occupation, diet and lifestyle to DDT and DDE concentrations in serum and adipose tissue from a Bolivian cohort

The organochlorine pesticide p,p′-Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was widely used in the early 1960s-70s for vector control in tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Due to its persistence, DDT has a high potential to bioaccumulate in the food chain and living organisms and is a major public health concern, especially in South America.The main purpose of the present study was to investigate predictors of serum and adipose tissue concentrations of p,p′-DDT and its main metabolite, p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p′-DDE), in an adult cohort (n = 112) from Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia, using multiple linear regression models. These models explained 29.3-47.8% of the variability in adipose tissue concentrations of p,p′-DDT and p,p′-DDE, respectively, and 32.9-47.0% of that in serum. Main exposure predictors included age, occupational class, residence, diet, smoking habit, and accumulated breastfeeding time.This is one of the few studies to explore predictors of human exposure to these chemicals using a multivariate approach in a South American population. Results show that predictors of human exposure to p,p′-DDT and p,p′-DDE in Santa Cruz de la Sierra may diverge from those found in other populations of the world, due to particular sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics of this region.