基于无偏灰色模型的煤矿百万吨死亡率预测

为预测中国煤炭行业安全生产状况发展趋势,构建无偏灰色预测模型对我国煤矿百万吨死亡率数据进行模拟预测。通过对我国2005—2010年度煤炭行业的百万吨死亡率有关数据进行模拟,并与传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测模拟结果进行对比分析。计算结果表明:无偏灰色模型消除了传统GM(1,1)模型本身固有偏差,预测精度较高,分析结果可靠,其中,平均绝对误差为0.030 6%,平均相对误差为2.71%,均低于传统GM(1,1)模型。预测数据显示近年来我国煤矿百万吨死亡率正逐步下降,2011年和2012年分别降至0.536%和0.411%,符合煤矿安全生产"十二五"规划要求。     

基于多因素灰色预测模型的生活污水量预测研究

生活污水作为城市水环境的主要污染源,进行生活污水排放量的预测是十分必要的.污水排放量预测方法有多种,不同的方法有各自不同的特点.为提高预测精度,采用灰色预测与多元线性回归相结合的方法,综合各种因素建立多因素灰色预测模型.并以人口和人均纯收入作为影响因素,将该模型应用于苏州横泾街道生活污水排放量的趋势预测中.结果表明：该模型能反映系统的实际情况,建模精度高,平均相对误差只有0.069 8％,值得在污水排放预测中推广应用.     

基于灰色理论GM（1，1）模型的陕西省工业废水排放量预测

该文根据2003～2009年陕西省工业废水的排放情况进行分析,采用灰色系统理论,引入二阶弱化算子D2,建立陕西省工业废水排放量GM（1,1）预测模型。采用残差大小和均方差比值对缓冲序列预测数据进行精度分析,误差较小,精度较高,模型可靠,可满足预测要求。运用预测模型对陕西省“十二五”期间工业废水排放量进行预测,得到2011-2015年工业废水排放量。对预测结果进行分析,计算出废水达标排放量年均增长量为395．42万吨;与工业总产值相联系,知工业废水排放量随着工业总产值的增加相应有所增加。     

山洞油库地下管沟油气泄漏聚集量的预测研究

在分析山洞油库具体空间结构和狭长受限空间内油气蔓延规律与特性的基础上,分别采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和一元线性回归模型对山洞油库地下管沟中的油气聚集量进行了预测,并应用MATLAB软件对预测模型进行编程以简化数学运算,通过对比分析两种预测模型的预测结果与预测误差可以得出:对山洞油库油气聚集量这种近似呈线性增长的预测对象而言,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型比一元线性回归模型具有更高的预测精度,且可确定油气达到爆炸下限的时间以及反映油气浓度变化的规律,以为山洞油库安全状态评估与决策提供依据。     

Methodological scheme for designing the monitoring of genetically modified crops at the regional scale

According to EC regulations the deliberate release of genetically modified (GM) crops into the agro-environment needs to be accompanied by environmental monitoring to detect potential adverse effects, e.g.unacceptable levels of gene flow from GM to non-GM crops, or adverse effects on single species or species groups thus reducing biodiversity. There is, however, considerable scientific and public debate on how GM crops should be monitored with sufficient accuracy, discussing questions of potential adverse effects, agro-environmental variables or indicators to be monitored and respective detection methods; Another basic component, the appropriate number and location of monitoring sites, is hardly considered. Currently, no consistent GM crop monitoring approach combines these components systematically. This study focuses on and integrates spatial agro-environmental aspects at a landscape level in order to design monitoring networks. Based on examples of environmental variables associated with the cropping of Bt-Maize (Zea maize L.), herbicide-tolerant (HT) winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), HT sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), and starch-modified potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), we develop a transferable framework and assessment scheme that comprises anticipated adverse environmental effects, variables to be measured and monitoring methods.These we integrate with a rule-based GIS (geographic information system) analysis, applying widely available spatial area and point information from existing environmental networks. This is used todevelop scenarios with optimised regional GM crop monitoring networks.     

Consensus Conferences – A Case Study: Publiforum in Switzerland with Special Respect to the Role of Lay Persons and Ethics

This paper focuses on experiences from a case study dealing with the Swiss type of a consensus conference called “PubliForum” concerning “Genetic Technology and Nutrition” (1999). Societal and ethical aspects of genetically modified food meanwhile can be seen as prototypes of topics depending on the involvement of the public through a participatory process. The important role of the lay perspective in this field seems to be accepted in practice. Nevertheless, there is still some theoretical controversy about the necessity and democratic legitimacy of participatory processes in general, and especially about those dealing with technological or environmental problems (sustainable development) concerning society. From an ethical point of view, a lot of heterogeneous problems concerning contents and procedures of public participation can be pointed out, not only on the theoretical level but also in practice, e.g., concerning the communication process between laypersons and experts. The intention of our paper is to give hints and to clarify criteria that support the communication process leading to a dialog of autonomous citizens and which especially consider ethical aspects in the field. One important result is that there must be an orientation for all members of a consensus conference having clear rules and knowing their different roles that support transparency, credibility, and fairness of the whole procedure and a “good product”: a substantial final document or citizens’ report. This paper presents results of the project Ethical Bio-TA Tools as funded by the European Commission, DG Research, under FP5, Quality of Life Programme.     

GM(1,1)模型群在黄河水质预测中的应用研究

灰色预测对统计数据较少问题可以进行预测,一般3-4个数据就可以建模,由于建模序列长短不同,会得到不同的预测方程,即对实际问题发展趋势某种程度的把握.实际预测时若能将不同的预测结果综合考虑进去,效果更佳.介绍了GM(1,1)模型建立的方法与步骤,并依据黄河潼关断面过去10年(1996-2005年)水质状况,利用GM(1,1)模型群预测了未来7年(2006-2012年)的水质发展状况.     

改进GM(1,1)模型在城市环境噪声预测中的应用

本文从传统GM(1,1)预测模型构造原理出发分析其存在的不足,指出模型适用于具有较强指数规律的序列,只能描述单调变化过程,而且预测数据序列中出现连续两个相等值时将使得a等于0,会使预测数据发散致使预测失效.文中通过采用平均斜率的概念计算a(k)序列,并利用MATLAB编程实现数据处理.广州市环境噪声污染数据的计算表明,新方法有满意的拟合和预测效果,从而为提高建模精度提供了新的途径.     

The Food Debate: Ethical versus Substantial Equivalence

Substantial equivalence (SE) has beenintroduced to assess novel foods, includinggenetically modified (GM) food, by means ofcomparison with traditional food. Besides anumber of objections concerning its scientificvalidity for risk assessment, the maindifficulty with SE is that it implies that foodcan be qualified on a purely substantial basis.SE embodies the assumption that only reductivescientific arguments are legitimate fordecision-making in public policy due to theemphasis on legal issues. However, the surge ofthe food debate clearly shows that thistechnocratic model is not accepted anymore.Food is more than physico-chemical substanceand encompasses values such as quality andethics. These values are legitimate in theirown right and require that new democraticprocesses are set up for transverse,transdisciplinary assessment in partnershipwith society. The notion of equivalence canprovide a reference scale in which to examinethe various legitimate factors involved:substance (SE), quality (QualitativeEquivalence: QE), and ethics (EthicalEquivalence: EE). QE requires that newqualitative methods of evaluation that are notbased on reductive principles are developed. EEcan provide a basis for the development of anEthical Assurance as a counterpart of QualityAssurance in the food sector. In France, asecond circle of expertise is being set up toaddress the social issues in food public policybeside classical risk assessment by the firstcircle of expertise. Since ethics is likely tobecome an organizing principle of the secondcircle, the equivalence ethical framework canprove instrumental in this context.     

GIM（1）灰色模型预测环保投资趋势的可行性探析

环保投资作为环保系统的一个子系统，并不一定具有指数函数规律。本文利用ＧＩＭ（１）灰色模型，探析了它在环保投资趋势预测应用中的可行性。初步应用表明，在序列不完全满足光滑化条件时，ＧＩＭ（１）灰色模型对系统变量的“白化”能力较ＧＭ（１，１）强，而与ＧＳＭ（１）灰色模型相当，信息利用率高，是分析、预测环保投资动态发展趋势一条切实可行的途径。