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排序方式: 共有175条查询结果,搜索用时 16 毫秒
121.
根据2000--2012年全国城镇生活污水排放量数据,建立了相应的GM(1,1)模型和预测函数。通过后验差检验等对预测函数进行了评估,并对2013--2017年城镇生活污水排放量进行了预测,结果表明,2013--2017年全国城镇生活污水的排放量逐年增加,呈上升趋势,从2013年的477.2736亿t上升到2017年的624.1022亿t;灰色预测模型和方法简单易用,利用较少的数据即可进行精度较高的预测。 相似文献
122.
为掌握我国煤炭行业整体安全生产状况,构建动态无偏灰色马尔科夫模型,通过处理我国1999—2008年度煤矿百万吨死亡率数据,对2009—2011年度煤矿百万吨死亡率数据进行预测。用无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型代替传统灰色GM(1,1)模型,拟合得到煤矿百万吨死亡率数据的变化趋势,在此基础上应用马尔科夫模型进行预测,并在每一次预测中更新原始数据,最后对预测结果进行对比分析。计算结果表明:动态无偏灰色马尔科夫模型既能消除传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的固有偏差,又能提高预测精度尤其是中长期预测精度。其中,平均绝对误差为3.35%,平均相对误差为3.85%,均低于传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和一般灰色马尔科夫模型。动态无偏灰色马尔科夫模型对于煤矿百万吨死亡率数据的平均预测精度超过96%。 相似文献
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This study aims to recognize and select the appropriate strategy for implementing green manufacturing (GM) in Indian manufacturing industry by developing an instrument which could measure the progress of an organization towards the GM philosophy. This study identifies and analyses the key enablers behind the successful achievement of environmental sustainability in Indian manufacturing industry. Based on extensive literature review and discussions with experts, the critical success factors (CSFs) of GM have been identified. After examining the internal consistency of enablers, weightage is identified for finalizing the priority by analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The pairwise comparison method of AHP identified that top management commitment, green procurement practices and societal concern for protection of natural environment art the most important enablers, and competitiveness and availability of clean technology have comparatively less importance for the studied manufacturing industries. The purpose of this paper is to rank the enablers on identified weightage and develop the framework for offering the useful insights and guides about how industries should link CSFs of GM to improve the environmental and operational performance. 相似文献
126.
以黑龙江省生态环境监测网监测结果为基础,总结归纳了"十三五"期间黑龙江省生态环境质量变化特征,并采用随机森林和GM(1,1)预测模型对"十四五"期间黑龙江省生态环境质量状况进行了预测。结果表明:"十三五"期间,黑龙江省环境空气、水环境和声环境质量全面好转。其中,环境空气主要污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2和CO的年均质量浓度均呈现出明显下降的趋势,"哈大绥"重点区域PM10、SO2、NO2和CO年均质量浓度呈现下降趋势。地表水水质总体呈波动变化趋势,水质状况均为轻度污染。"十四五"期间,黑龙江省生态环境质量将处于稳中向好的趋势。环境空气主要污染物及地表水主要污染指标年均质量浓度均呈现明显的下降趋势,道路交通声环境质量也将得到进一步改善。 相似文献
127.
Ryan C. Lewis John D. Meeker Karen E. Peterson Joyce M. Lee Gerry G. Pace Alejandra Cantoral Martha Maria Téllez-Rojo 《Chemosphere》2013
Exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals such as bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates is prevalent among children and adolescents, but little is known regarding important sources of exposure at these sensitive life stages. In this study, we measured urinary concentrations of BPA and nine phthalate metabolites in 108 Mexican children aged 8–13 years. Associations of age, time of day, and questionnaire items on external environment, water use, and food container use with specific gravity-corrected urinary concentrations were assessed, as were questionnaire items concerning the use of 17 personal care products in the past 48-h. As a secondary aim, third trimester urinary concentrations were measured in 99 mothers of these children, and the relationship between specific gravity-corrected urinary concentrations at these two time points was explored. After adjusting for potential confounding by other personal care product use in the past 48-h, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) positive associations in boys for cologne/perfume use and monoethyl phthalate (MEP), mono(3-carboxypropyl) phthalate (MCPP), mono(2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (MEHHP), and mono(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (MEOHP), and in girls for colored cosmetics use and mono-n-butyl phthalate (MBP), mono(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), MEHHP, MEOHP, and mono(2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl) phthalate (MECPP), conditioner use and MEP, deodorant use and MEP, and other hair products use and MBP. There was a statistically significant positive trend for the number of personal care products used in the past 48-h and log-MEP in girls. However, there were no statistically significant associations between the analytes and the other questionnaire items and there were no strong correlations between the analytes measured during the third trimester and at 8–13 years of age. We demonstrated that personal care product use is associated with exposure to multiple phthalates in children. Due to rapid development, children may be susceptible to impacts from exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals; thus, reduced or delayed use of certain personal care products among children may be warranted. 相似文献
128.
环境振动的灰色预测模型 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用GIM(1)的非时序直接建模法预测研究建筑施工的环境振动 ,并将GIM(1)模型与GM (1,1)模型进行比较分析 ,结果表明GIM(1)模型的拟合精度优良 ,对原始资料中白化信息的利用更加丰富 ,拓宽了GIM (1)模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围 相似文献
129.
Methodological scheme for designing the monitoring of genetically modified crops at the regional scale 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Graef F Züghart W Hommel B Heinrich U Stachow U Werner A 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2005,111(1-3):1-26
According to EC regulations the deliberate release of genetically modified (GM) crops into the agro-environment needs to be
accompanied by environmental monitoring to detect potential adverse effects, e.g.unacceptable levels of gene flow from GM
to non-GM crops, or adverse effects on single species or species groups thus reducing biodiversity. There is, however, considerable
scientific and public debate on how GM crops should be monitored with sufficient accuracy, discussing questions of potential
adverse effects, agro-environmental variables or indicators to be monitored and respective detection methods; Another basic
component, the appropriate number and location of monitoring sites, is hardly considered. Currently, no consistent GM crop
monitoring approach combines these components systematically. This study focuses on and integrates spatial agro-environmental
aspects at a landscape level in order to design monitoring networks. Based on examples of environmental variables associated
with the cropping of Bt-Maize (Zea maize L.), herbicide-tolerant (HT) winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), HT sugar beet
(Beta vulgaris L.), and starch-modified potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), we develop a transferable framework and assessment
scheme that comprises anticipated adverse environmental effects, variables to be measured and monitoring methods.These we
integrate with a rule-based GIS (geographic information system) analysis, applying widely available spatial area and point
information from existing environmental networks. This is used todevelop scenarios with optimised regional GM crop monitoring
networks. 相似文献
130.
基于MATLAB的湘江流域工业固体废物灰色预测 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
对灰色预测原理及其建模步骤作了系统介绍。借助MATLAB软件建立等维灰数递补残差修正动态模型预测湘江流域未来10年工业固体废物年产量,以期为湘江流域今后工业固体废物的管理、污染防治工作提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)用此模型进行预测,相对误差均在5%以下,预测精度较高,取得了较理想的预测效果;(2)湘江流域未来10年工业固体废物年产量预测值呈指数趋势增长,年增长率为8%~12%,到2016年湘江流域工业固体废物年产量预计将达到7645.01万t。 相似文献