灰色系统模型在大气环境质量预测中的应用

把大气环境作为一个灰色系统,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对大气中的降尘及总悬浮物做出科学的预测,并进行灰色模型的精度检验。      

环境预测中灰色模型的EXCEL解法

提出了利用EXCEL应用软件建立GM（1,N）预测模型的建模方法,并结合实例介绍了建立河流高锰酸盐指数GM（1,3）模型的操作过程。     

矿井粉尘浓度的灰色预测法

采用粉尘浓度统计值建立GM(1,1)模型,进而对粉尘浓度进行预测,说明这种方法的有效性和实用性.     

Cumulative impact of GM herbicide-tolerant cropping on arable plants assessed through species-based and functional taxonomies

Background, aim and scope

In a gradualist approach to the introduction of crop biotechnology, the findings of experimentation at one scale are used to predict the outcome of moving to a higher scale of deployment. Movement through scales had occurred for certain genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops in the UK as far as large-scale field trials. However, the land area occupied by these trials was still <1% of the area occupied by the respective non-GM crops. Some means is needed to predict the direction and size of the effect of increasing the area of GMHT cropping on ecological variables such as the diversity among species and trophic interactions. Species-accumulation curves are examined here as a method of indicating regional-scale impacts on botanical diversity from multiple field experiments.

Materials and methods

Data were used from experiments on the effect of (GMHT) crops and non-GM, or conventional, comparators in fields sown with four crop types (beet, maize, spring and winter oilseed rape) at a total of 250 sites in the UK between 2000 and 2003. Indices of biodiversity were measured in a split-field design comparing GMHT with the farmers’ usual weed management. In the original analyses based on the means at site level, effects were detected on the mass of weeds in the three spring crops and the proportion of broadleaf and grass weeds in winter oilseed rape, but not on indices of plant species diversity. To explore the links between site means and total taxa, accumulation curves were constructed based on the number of plant species (a pool of around 250 species in total) and the number of plant functional types (24), inferred from the general life-history characteristics of a species.

Results

Species accumulation differed between GMHT and conventional treatments in direction and size, depending on the type of crop and its conventional management. Differences were mostly in the asymptote of the curve, indicative of the maximum number of species found in a treatment, rather than the steepness of the curve. In winter oilseed rape, 8% more species were accumulated in the GMHT treatment, mainly as a result of the encouragement of grass species by the herbicide when applied in the autumn. (Overall, GMHT winter oilseed rape had strong negative effects on both the food web and the potential weed burden by increasing the biomass of grasses and decreasing that of broadleaf weeds.) In maize, 33% more species—a substantial increase—were accumulated in the GMHT than in the conventional, consistent with the latter’s highly suppressive weed management using triazine herbicides. In the spring oilseed rape and beet, fewer species (around 10%) were accumulated in the GMHT than the conventional. The GMHT treatments did not remove or add any functional (life history) types, however. Differences in species accumulation between treatments appeared to be caused by loss or gain of rarer species. The generality of this effect was confirmed by simulations of species accumulation in which the species complement at each of 50 sites was drawn from a regional pool and subjected to reducing treatment at each site. Shifts in the species-accumulation parameters, comparable to those measured, occurred only when a treatment removed the rarer species at each site.

Discussion

Species accumulation provided a set of simple curve-parameters that captured the net result of numerous local effects of treatments on plant species and, in some instances, the balance between grass and broadleaf types. The direction of effect was not the same in the four crops and depended on the severity of the conventional treatment and on complex interactions between season, herbicide and crop. The accumulation curves gave an indication of potential positive or negative consequences for regional species pools of replacing a conventional practice with GMHT weed management. In this and related studies, a range of indicators, through which diversity was assessed by both species and functional type, and at both site and regional scales, gave more insight into effects of GMHT treatment than provided by any one indicator.

Conclusions

Species accumulation was shown to discriminate at the regional scale between agronomic treatments that had little effect on species number at the field scale. While a comprehensive assessment of GM cropping needs to include an examination of regional effects, as here, the costs of doing this in all instances would be prohibitive. Simulations of diversity-reducing treatments could provide a theoretical framework for predicting the likely regional effects from in-field plant dynamics.

Recommendations and perspectives

Accumulation curves potentially offer a means of linking within-site effects to regional impacts on biodiversity resulting from any change in agricultural practice. To guide empirical measurement, there is a scope to apply a methodology such as individual-based modelling at the field scale to explore the links between agronomic treatments and the relative abundance of plant types. The framework needs to be validated in practice, using species-based and functional taxonomies, the latter defined by measured rather than inferred traits.     

A framework of enabler’s relationship for implementation of green manufacturing in Indian context

This study aims to recognize and select the appropriate strategy for implementing green manufacturing (GM) in Indian manufacturing industry by developing an instrument which could measure the progress of an organization towards the GM philosophy. This study identifies and analyses the key enablers behind the successful achievement of environmental sustainability in Indian manufacturing industry. Based on extensive literature review and discussions with experts, the critical success factors (CSFs) of GM have been identified. After examining the internal consistency of enablers, weightage is identified for finalizing the priority by analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The pairwise comparison method of AHP identified that top management commitment, green procurement practices and societal concern for protection of natural environment art the most important enablers, and competitiveness and availability of clean technology have comparatively less importance for the studied manufacturing industries. The purpose of this paper is to rank the enablers on identified weightage and develop the framework for offering the useful insights and guides about how industries should link CSFs of GM to improve the environmental and operational performance.     

Proposed Definition of Environmental Damage Illustrated by the Cases of Genetically Modified Crops and Invasive Species

Abstract: The introduction of non‐native plant species and the release of genetically modified (GM) crops can induce environmental changes at gene to ecosystem levels. Regulatory frameworks such as the Convention on Biological Diversity or the EU Deliberate Release Directive aim to prevent environmental damage but do not define the term. Although ecologists and conservationists often refer to environmental effects of GM crops or invasive species as damage, most authors do not disclose their normative assumptions or explain why some environmental impacts are regarded as detrimental and others are not. Thus far, a concise definition of environmental damage is missing and is necessary for a transparent assessment of environmental effects or risks. Therefore, we suggest defining environmental damage as a significant adverse effect on a biotic or abiotic conservation resource (i.e., a biotic or abiotic natural resource that is protected by conservational or environmental legislation) that has an impact on the value of the conservation resource, the conservation resource as an ecosystem component, or the sustainable use of the conservation resource. This definition relies on three normative assumptions: only concrete effects on a conservation resource can be damages; only adverse effects that lead to a decrease in the value of the conservation resource can be damages; and only significant adverse effects constitute damage to a conservation resource. Applying this definition within the framework of environmental risk assessment requires further normative determinations, for example, selection of a threshold to distinguish between adverse and significant adverse effects and approaches for assessing the environmental value of conservation resources. Such determinations, however, are not part of the definition of environmental damage. Rather they are part of the definition's operationalization through assessment procedures, which must be grounded in a comprehensible definition of environmental damage.     

基于GM（1,1）模型的秦皇岛市大气污染物SO2预测

根据2004—2009年大气中SO2污染物的监测数据,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了未来6年秦皇岛市大气中SO2的变化趋势。结果显示,灰色系统GM(1,1)模型合理,精度较高,相对误差为-1.875%～1.228%,与环保部门公布的数据吻合程度较好。     

基于灰色-马尔科夫链理论的建筑施工事故预测研究

我国建筑事故预测中具有统计数据少、数据波动性大等特点,缺乏具有高精度、可操作性强的预测模型。将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫原理相结合,充分发挥了灰色系统理论适用于小样本数据拟合和马尔可夫适合处理数据波动大的系统过程的优势,通过GM(1,1)模型的建立,提出一种适合建筑事故统计数据特点的灰色马尔可夫预测方法。将该方法应用于1994—2007年建筑施工事故次数分析,以此为基础对2008—2009年的建筑施工事故次数进行预测。研究结果表明:基于灰色马尔可夫理论建筑事故预测结果精度可达90%以上。     

基于无偏灰色模型的煤矿百万吨死亡率预测

为预测中国煤炭行业安全生产状况发展趋势,构建无偏灰色预测模型对我国煤矿百万吨死亡率数据进行模拟预测。通过对我国2005—2010年度煤炭行业的百万吨死亡率有关数据进行模拟,并与传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测模拟结果进行对比分析。计算结果表明:无偏灰色模型消除了传统GM(1,1)模型本身固有偏差,预测精度较高,分析结果可靠,其中,平均绝对误差为0.030 6%,平均相对误差为2.71%,均低于传统GM(1,1)模型。预测数据显示近年来我国煤矿百万吨死亡率正逐步下降,2011年和2012年分别降至0.536%和0.411%,符合煤矿安全生产"十二五"规划要求。