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121.
A Markov model for assessing ecological stability properties 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ecological systems are frequently modeled as dynamic systems. It is natural then to use the techniques of dynamic systems theory to analyze such models. However, the methods and results that are produced by dynamic systems theory do not always capture the aspects of ecological systems that are of greatest interest to managers and decision-makers. We identify some of the challenges of using dynamic systems theory to explore ecological systems and propose an alternative approach that emphasizes the understanding of transient effects in light of uncertainty and variability. We illustrate this method by an examination of a model for phosphorus levels in fresh water lakes. 相似文献
122.
Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework. 相似文献
123.
Calculations of large-scale displacement distances were made to evaluate the combined effect of small-scale movement pattern of a Collembola, Protaphorura armata. The effect of presence of food and conspecific density on turning angle, step length and activity/motility was investigated. Calculations of net square displacement were made both by assuming correlated random walk (CRW) and by resampling data to account for correlation structures in movement patterns that violate the assumptions of CRW. 相似文献
124.
Andrew O. Finley Sudipto Banerjee Ronald E. McRoberts 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(2):241-258
In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply,
there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small
area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based
approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability
of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s
posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The
paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot
data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries
of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest
and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification
accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.
相似文献
Ronald E. McRobertsEmail: |
125.
为了在矿井通风网络发生阻变型故障时,能够快速准确判断出故障位置和故障量,提出1种基于随机森林的通风网络故障位置和故障量诊断方法。利用矿井通风仿真系统IMVS将唐安矿模拟故障生成空间数据集并进行数据预处理,构建基于随机森林的故障诊断模型,并利用该诊断模型对唐安矿矿井通风网络模拟故障位置和故障量进行判断和预测。引用多种方法对模型进行度量,通过唐安矿模拟实验验证基于随机森林的故障诊断模型的有效性。将随机森林和决策树的故障诊断准确率进行对比,研究结果表明:随机森林较决策树故障准确率有进一步的提高,并发现故障地点失误诊断多是相邻巷道,在一定程度上工作人员对故障地点的判断并不受其影响。 相似文献
126.
H. T. Schreuder R. Czaplewski R. G. Bailey 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1999,56(3):269-291
A forest ecological inventory and monitoring system combining information derived from maps and samples is proposed based on ecosystem regions (Bailey, 1994). The system extends the design of the USDA Forest Service Region 6 Inventory and Monitoring System (R6IMS) in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The key uses of the information are briefly discussed and expected results are illustrated with examples. The system is flexible, allowing regions based on ecological considerations to be modified. Sampling intensities that are affordable are likely to be insufficient to provide meaningful estimates for key parameters relating to rare and endangered species, watersheds, and other ecological units. Methods are proposed for collecting additional information in follow-up surveys and combining it with relevant information obtained in R6IMS. Near-continuous information on weather and possible pollution variables recorded by instruments at sampling sites is needed to develop meaningful models to understand what is happening in the ecoregions. R6IMS and the proposed additions constitute a dynamic system which will be modified further as data are analyzed. 相似文献
127.
基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖流域平原区景观格局动态模拟预测 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
利用“3S”技术及CA-Markov模型,按照是否实施跨流域调水工程2种预案情况,以2005年为起始时刻,对新疆艾比湖流域平原区2020年景观格局进行模拟预测。结果显示:在调水工程未实施的情况下,2020年研究区的生态环境将进一步恶化,其突出表现为艾比湖湖泊水面将持续萎缩、裸露湖底盐漠面积进一步扩大,水资源短缺及生态环境恶化的结果将严重制约研究区社会经济的发展;在调水工程实施的情况下,2020年研究区内艾比湖湖泊水面将稳定增加至800 km^2以上、裸露湖底盐漠面积相应有所减少,生态环境恶化趋势得到改善,区域水资源短缺问题将有所缓解,可有效地促进研究区内社会经济的发展。 相似文献
128.
在海水烟气脱硫中试实验台上进行了填料形式、填料高度变化对脱硫效率和系统压降影响规律的实验研究;研究中将喷淋空塔和分别填装A型、B型、C型3种填料的吸收塔进行了综合性能对比,并进行了填料高度分别为0.6、1.2和1.8 m的对比实验。结果表明,填料塔的脱硫效率高于喷淋空塔;当空塔气速为3 m/s时,填装C型填料的吸收塔的综合性能最优;当空塔气速小于2.5 m/s时,填装A型填料的吸收塔的综合性能最优;在满足相同脱硫效率的指标下,虽然增加填料高度降低了海水喷淋量,并且系统压降出现一定比例下降,但是在工程设计中必须综合考虑塔高、填料支架载荷等因素选择合适的填料堆积高度。 相似文献
129.
130.