排放和气象对疫情前后武汉不同类型点位大气污染物的影响

采用随机森林算法剥离了排放和气象对6种大气污染物(SO₂、 NO₂、 CO、 PM₁₀、 PM_2.5和O₃)浓度的贡献,识别了疫情前后武汉市中心城区、郊区、工业区、三环线交通点和城市背景点这5种类型点位的大气污染物浓度变化.结果表明,与管控前相比,管控期间PM_2.5/CO、 PM₁₀/CO和NO₂/CO分别减小了10.8～21.7、 9.34～24.7和14.4～22.1倍,表明排放对PM_2.5、 PM₁₀和NO₂贡献减小;O₃/CO增加了50.1～61.5倍,表明二次生成增加明显.解除管控后排放对各类污染物的贡献均增加.管控期间,受一些不可间断工序的运行影响,工业区PM_2.5降幅最小(20.5%).与管控期间相比,解除管控后居民生活、交通出行和工业生产等基本恢复,使5种类型站点PM_2.5     

Ivemark syndrome with agenesis of the corpus callosum: a case report with a review of the literature

Asplenia associated with situs ambiguus, symmetric liver, bilateral trilobulated lungs, and a complex heart defect was diagnosed on autopsy in a 14-day-old infant. Furthermore, examination of the brain displayed agenesis of the corpus callosum (ACC) with pachygyria and hydrocephalus. The characteristic association of asplenia with visceroatrial heterotaxia is traditionally named after the Swedish pediatrician, Ivemark. Although exceptional, association of Ivemark syndrome with callosal agenesis has been reported recently. The concept of ‘developmental fields’ describes morphogenetically reactive units of the embryo determining and controlling the development of complex structures in a hierarchical manner. Lateralization defects such as situs inversus, asplenia or polysplenia due to defective left–right axis development, as well as decussation defects such as ACC, are considered as defects of the primary developmental field. Therefore, additional callosal agenesis in Ivemark syndrome may be a coherent and synchronic defect in the primary developmental field rather than a causally independent malformation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Responses of plant, insect and spider biodiversity to local and landscape scale management intensity in cereal crops and grasslands

The aim of this study was to determine the relative effects of landscape scale management intensity, agroecosystem type, local management intensity and edges on diversity patterns of functional groups of plants, carabid beetles, spiders and grasshoppers. Nine landscapes were selected differing in percent intensively used agricultural area (IAA), each with a pair of organic and conventional winter wheat fields and a pair of organic and conventional mown meadows. Within fields, plants were surveyed in the edge and in the interior. Carabid beetles and spiders were captured by funnel traps, while grasshoppers were sweep-netted in the meadows. Diversity patterns of study organisms were affected both by local variables (local management, agroecosystem type and within-field position) and by landscape scale management intensity. Species richness of grasses, presumably because of sowing low-diversity mixtures, and hunting spiders decreased with percent cover of IAA. Meadows differed from wheat fields in that they had higher species richness of forbs and grasses, as well as higher densities of hunting spiders. In contrast, more carabid individuals, especially of non-carnivore species, were captured in wheat fields. In field edges with their reduced management intensity and increased immigration, species richness of plants, carabids and spiders was higher than in the interiors regardless of agroecosystem type and management. Organic management enhanced forb richness and cover in both agroecosystem types. Organic management also increased grass cover in wheat fields, but not in meadows, and promoted species richness of non-carnivore carabids and hunting spiders, but not grasshoppers. The results show that agri-environmental management needs to be targeted to the agroecosystem's field size, because higher edge area led to higher species richness. Organic management affected several functional groups positively (forbs, non-carnivore carabids, hunting spiders), while lower landscape scale management intensity only increased species richness of grasses and spiders. The great differences in responses of functional groups to local cereal and grassland as well as landscape management suggest implementing more scale and group specific targets for agri-environmental schemes to improve their efficiency.     

基于随机森林与地统计预测城市土壤PAHs分布

收集南京城区采样点位置信息和环境变量等数据,应用地统计和随机森林方法,以及两种方法相结合分别预测土壤多环芳烃（polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons,PAHs）含量,并比较不同方法预测精度.结果表明：随机森林与地统计方法结合能大幅度提高城市土壤污染物制图精度,整合克里金与随机森林预测残差模型拟合优度R²相比克里金插值法提高74.8%.PAHs空间制图结果能够较好拟合污染物的变化范围,识别污染高值区与低值区的空间分布.随机森林输出特征重要性发现影响南京城区土壤PAHs分布的主控因子为土壤碳和土壤粒度以及工厂密度.本研究可为城市污染物高分辨率和高精度制图以及污染防控治理提供参考.     

基于随机森林的耕地利用效率测度模型构建及其应用

构建合适的量化分析模型是科学把握耕地利用状况及利用效率的基础性工作,可为制定合理有效的耕地资源管控政策,实现耕地利用与生态环境的协调发展提供决策依据。为了更准确地反映耕地利用系统的复杂性、动态性及差异性等特征,鉴于随机森林的基本思想,运用随机抽样Bootstrap法在合理构建分类树的基础上,构造了耕地利用效率测度的RF模型,进而以中国粮食主产区172个城市为例训练该模型并将其运用至2003-2015年的耕地利用效率测度中,同时将BP神经网络和熵权法作为对比验证其一致性、代表性和优越性。结果表明：（1）耕地利用效率测度的RF模型不受量纲限制,运行所需参数少,运算过程简化,能够较为精确地模拟各评价指标间的复杂联系,科学量化各评价指标对耕地利用效率的贡献。（2）对同一空间单元的效率值而言,RF>BPNN>EW,RF与BPNN所得效率值的总体分布格局相似,且均与EW的测度结果存在较大差异。（3）从评价结果与现实的匹配度和精度表征参数来看,RF的测度结果与自然和社会经济发展等客观事实更相符,具有较高的适用性与可靠性。同时,与其余两种常用模型相比,RF能够降低计算复杂度,提高训练效率,其测度结果的相关系数R为0.8685,M_RPD为2.3533,且具有最小M_MSE0.0174和M_MAE0.0211,更适用于复杂非线性特征的耕地利用效率研究。     

基于随机森林模型的中国近地面NO2浓度估算

NH₃针对传统近地面NO₂浓度空间模拟过程中NO₂浓度与其影响要素之间关系的复杂非线性机制解释不充分的缺陷,本研究基于随机森林（RF）算法、融合多源地理要素开展了近地面NO₂浓度空间分布模拟研究.以卫星OMI对流层NO₂柱浓度数据和多源地理要素（道路交通、气象因子、土地利用/覆盖、地形高程、人口数量）为输入变量,近地面NO₂浓度为输出变量,利用RF算法构建近地面NO₂浓度反演模型.通过对比地面观测数据与传统土地利用回归模型（LUR）检验RF模型的有效性,基于所构建的最优RF模型在不同时间尺度下模拟分析中国大陆地区近地面NO₂浓度空间分布特征.结果表明：（1）集成多源地理要素的RF回归模型精度高,月均模型整体拟合度R² 0.85,RMSE 6.08μg/m³,交叉验证的R² 0.84,RMSE 6.33μg/m³,显著高于LUR模型（拟合R² 0.53,RMSE 10.48μg/m³,交叉验证的R² 0.53,RMSE 10.49μg/m³）; （2）地面NO₂浓度与预测变量呈现显著的复杂非线性与时间尺度依赖关系,卫星OMI柱浓度对模型影响程度最大,重要性指标IncMSE介于97.40%~116.54%,多源地理特征变量对RF模型同样具有不可忽视的贡献力（IncMSE在23.34%~47.53%之间）;（3）中国大陆地区NO₂污染程度较高,年均模拟浓度为24.67μg/m³,存在明显季节性空间差异,NO₂浓度冬季（31.85μg/m³） > 秋季（24.86μg/m³） > 春季（23.24μg/m³） > 夏季（18.75μg/m³）,呈现以华北平原为高值中心、向外围逐渐减轻的空间分布格局.较已有研究揭示对流层NO₂柱浓度宏观分布特征,本研究对近地面NO₂污染特征的研究成果对于合理制定污染防控策略、降低居民暴露健康损害具有指导意义.     

模拟酸雨对福州平原稻田土壤细菌丰度及多样性的影响

为了探讨酸雨对稻田土壤细菌的影响,以福州平原某稻田为研究对象,测定和分析模拟不同酸度酸雨处理下早、晚稻土壤细菌群落组成及其丰度.结果表明：模拟酸雨处理提高了早稻土壤细菌的多样性,但却降低了晚稻土壤细菌的多样性;酸雨改变了稻田土壤细菌的丰度及群落结构,经模拟不同酸度的酸雨处理,稻田土壤细菌的优势菌属及其丰度并不一致;早稻pH3.5处理组与早稻对照组之间的物种多样性及群落结构差异最大,晚稻pH2.5处理组与晚稻对照组之间的物种多样性及群落结构差异最大;在酸雨作用下,溶杆菌属（Lysobacter）和产黄杆菌属（Rhodanobacter）的丰度明显升高,而马赛菌属（Massilia）的丰度则显著降低,说明溶杆菌属（Lysobacter）和产黄杆菌属（Rhodanobacter）为耐受酸雨的主要菌属,马赛菌属（Massilia）则为受酸雨影响最大的菌属;细菌属H16的相对丰度与土壤电导率（EC）呈极显著负相关（P<0.01）,Lysobacter的相对丰度与土壤pH值呈极显著负相关（P<0.01）,Arenimonas的相对丰度与土壤总有机碳（SOC）呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）.     

炉渣与生物炭施加对稻田土壤铁还原菌群落结构及甲烷排放影响

为了探究炉渣及生物炭施加处理对稻田土壤铁还原菌群落结构及甲烷排放的影响,在福州某平原稻田中分别进行施加生物炭、炉渣、生物炭+炉渣3种处理,测定早、晚稻生长期稻田甲烷排放通量和可培养铁还原菌数量,并比较施加处理与不施加处理稻田土壤铁还原菌群落结构组成之间的差异.结果表明：废弃物施加能够改变稻田土壤铁还原菌数量,晚稻生物炭施加组的铁还原菌数量显著高于其他3组（P<0.05）;废弃物施加在一定程度上抑制了稻田土壤甲烷的排放,其中早稻混合施加组对甲烷排放的降低作用最为明显;福州平原稻田土壤中铁还原菌种类丰富,分布于10个门,其中厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）和变形菌门（Proteobacteria）为优势菌门相对丰度占比之和大于95%.共鉴定出20个属,其中相对丰度较高的菌属为芽孢杆菌属（Bacillus）、厌氧粘细菌属（Anaeromyxobacter）、梭状芽孢杆菌属（Clostridium）等10个属,占样品中已知铁还原菌属的62.07%~66.58%;生物炭和炉渣主要通过改变土壤pH值及含水量影响稻田土壤铁还原菌群落结构,混合施加的影响比单一施加更为显著;芽孢杆菌属（Bacillus）的相对丰度与稻田土壤甲烷的排放通量呈显著负相关,是稻田中抑制甲烷产生与排放的主要铁还原菌属.     

三重属性的承载力约束下中国水资源利用效率动态演进特征分析

基于水资源"资源禀赋-社会经济-生态环境"三重属性约束建立承载力测算模型,创新性地将水资源承载力作为投入要素,构建SFA效率测算模型,运用2003～2017年中国31个省份面板数据,应用Kernel密度估计和Markov链对水资源使用效率的动态演进特征进行分析.结果表明:①中国大部分省份水资源承载力在稳步提升,西北、华北、东北和华中地区呈较低水平,西南、华南等地区呈较高水平;②中国所有省份水资源利用效率均保持稳定增长,西部地区比中、东部地区增长幅度更大,整体呈现东高西低,南高北低的空间态势;③中国水资源利用效率动态演进存在多极化和趋同化现象,部分省份存在梯度效应,同时具有俱乐部收敛特征,流动性差,马太效应凸显.为实现水资源、社会和环境的协调耦合,降低区域间资源使用效率差异,提升水资源利用效率,提出需要充分考虑水资源承载力,统筹全国及区域水资源供需协调发展战略,构建水权交易市场等建议.