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91.
Nonlinear state-space models have been increasingly applied to study population dynamics and data assimilation in environmental sciences. State-space models can account for process error and measurement error simultaneously to correct for the bias in the estimates of system state and model parameters. However, few studies have compared the performance of different nonlinear state-space models for reconstructing the state of population dynamics from noisy time series. This study compared the performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and Bayesian nonlinear state-space models (BNSSM) through simulations. Synthetic population time series were generated using the theta logistic model with known parameters, and normally distributed process and measurement errors were introduced using the Monte Carlo simulations. At higher levels of nonlinearity, the UKF and BNSSM had lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the EKF. The BNSSM performed reliably across all levels of nonlinearity, whereas increased levels of nonlinearity resulted in higher RMSE of the EKF. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs algorithm was used to fit the theta logistic model to synthetic time series to estimate model parameters. The estimated posterior distribution of the parameter θ indicated that the 95% credible intervals included the true values of θ (=0.5 and 1.5), but did not include 1.0 and 0.0. Future studies need to incorporate the adaptive Metropolis algorithm to estimate unknown model parameters for broad applications of Bayesian nonlinear state-space models in ecological studies. 相似文献
92.
We have developed a knowledge discovery system based on high-order hidden Markov models for analyzing spatio-temporal data bases. This system, named CarrotAge , takes as input an array of discrete data – the rows represent the spatial sites and the columns the time slots – and builds a partition together with its a posteriori probability. CarrotAge has been developed for studying the cropping patterns of a territory. It uses therefore an agricultural drench database, named Ter-Uti , which records every year the land-use category of a set of sites regularly spaced. The results of CarrotAge are interpreted by agronomists and used in research works linking agricultural land use and water management. Moreover, CarrotAge can be used to find out and study crop sequences in large territories, that is a main question for agricultural and environmental research, as discussed in this paper. 相似文献
93.
利用噬菌体随机十二肽库对金属N i2 进行了结合肽筛选,经5轮生物淘洗、噬菌体扩增和DNA测序,获得8条多肽序列,分析发现其中富含组氨酸(4~6个/肽).结果表明,组氨酸的存在对蛋白质和金属N i2 的结合起着关键作用.图1表1参11 相似文献
94.
Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed. 相似文献
95.
Heather?R. Britt Bradley?P.?CarlinEmail author Traci?L.?Toomey Alexander?C.?Wagenaar 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2005,12(4):411-426
Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes,
drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides.
Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the
density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common.
In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis,
Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available
in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial
heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally
autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density
and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful
for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing
from the fixed effects portion of the model. 相似文献
96.
In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters.
Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte
Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions
to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local
Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data
on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin. 相似文献
97.
Many agricultural, biological, and environmental studies involve detecting temporal changes of a response variable, based on data observed at sampling sites in a spatial region and repeatedly over several time points. That is, data are repeated measures over time and are potentially correlated across space. The traditional repeated-measures analysis allows for time dependence but assumes that the observations at different sampling sites are mutually independent, which may not be suitable for field data that are correlated across space. In this paper, a nonparametric large-sample inference procedure is developed to assess the time effects while accounting for the spatial dependence using a block bootstrap. For illustration, the methodology is applied to describe the population changes of root-lesion nematodes over time in a production field in Wisconsin. 相似文献
98.
河流水质的动态马尔柯夫评价 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
根据马尔柯夫过程的原理,在水质级别评价结果的基础之上,构造水质变化的概率转移矩阵,并对转移概率赋权计算绝对进步度,然后在此基础上引出相对进步度的概念,用相对进步度来评价河流水质在一段时期内的变化程度.运用该方法计算了中国四大河流2005年的水质相对进步度,并对计算结果进行了分析. 相似文献
99.
100.
合理的补偿标准是节水灌溉技术补偿政策的核心,也是促进农户技术采用的关键内容。论文以石羊河下游民勤县为例,通过选择实验调研和RPL(Random Parameters Logit)模型估计,量化了节水灌溉技术采用的外部效益,并结合特定技术与农户谈判能力讨论了兼顾公平与效率的补偿标准。结果表明:民勤县城乡居民均希望实施节水灌溉技术来改善生态环境,技术采用的外部效益约为1 052.25元/hm2;以膜下滴灌技术为例,合理的补偿标准应在789.15元/hm2左右。从现行政策看,过低的补贴标准难以保障农户切身利益,导致政策响应不足。据此建议,完善成本收益核算体系,将技术采用的外部效益纳入补偿标准的核算中,提升补偿政策的公平性,同时也要根据技术类型及其采用面积进行精准化补偿,保障资金有效利用。 相似文献