设施遭恐怖袭击的风险分析方法探讨

“9.11”事件以来 ,恐怖袭击的威胁引起各国政府、媒体和公众的广泛关注 ,预测和减缓恐怖袭击的风险成为安全科学的新课题。笔者依据经典的风险理论 ,探究易受攻击性和损失严重性的概念及其表征参数 ,并通过易受攻击性和损失严重性等级矩阵确定设施遭恐怖袭击的风险水平。     

论建筑事故经济损失的分担

长期以来,我国建筑事故频繁发生,给国家、企业和个人造成了很大的经济损失,也给社会带来了不安定因素。笔者认为建筑事故经济损失的分担不仅是经济、安全问题,也是一个法律问题。在事故发生后不仅要查清人员的伤亡情况、事故经过、原因分析、责任人处理、人员教育、措施制定、事故经济损失,还要弄清法律问题,要依法问责或依法问罪,也是行政法律问题,依法行政处罚和处分,还是民事法律问题,依法承担民事赔偿。笔者认为企业最好采用保险和非保险转嫁方式把事故造成的经济损失转移出去,减轻自己的负担。只有在找不到其他更好的处置方法,或是为了经济上的节约而并不影响自身的财务稳定且有控制风险的能力,或不知道风险的存在,或虽知风险存在,但由于预测失误、忽略而导致损失,才自己承担。当事故发生后要通过法定程序来确定的建筑事故经济损失是由保险公司、合同另一方和企业分担。     

放射性环境中优势细菌对水泥砂浆的腐蚀影响

微生物腐蚀是指由微生物或其代谢产物所引起的材料破坏和恶化。为了研究放射性环境土壤中优势微生物对水泥砂浆腐蚀的影响,以湖南铀尾矿场址土壤中富集培养筛选的优势细菌菌群作为砂浆试件的腐蚀质,采用浸泡腐蚀的方式,通过测试特定腐蚀龄期砂浆试件的质量损失、强度损失、碳化深度,并采用扫描电子显微镜和X射线衍射仪进行微观分析,来研究微生物对砂浆的腐蚀作用。结果表明:随腐蚀龄期增长,细菌试验组的试件抗压强度明显低于无菌对照组,腐蚀龄期为168 d时,细菌试验组的抗压耐腐蚀系数降到0.86,而无菌对照组在0.9以上;细菌试验组质量损失率和碳化深度均高于无菌对照组,腐蚀龄期为168 d时,细菌试验组碳化深度达2.0 mm,是无菌对照组的2倍;微观结构显示,有细菌存在的条件下更易生成钙矾石晶体,从而影响砂浆的力学性能及耐久性。研究表明,优势细菌的存在能加速水泥砂浆的腐蚀。     

Prediction of methanol loss in liquid hydrocarbon phase during natural gas hydrate inhibition using rigorous models

Methanol is the most widely used natural gas hydrate inhibitor and it is only effective as a hydrate inhibitor in the aqueous phase. Methanol is not regenerated in natural gas inhibition process due to its intermittent application in most cases. However, a significant cost is associated with the process because of methanol loss while utilizing this inhibitor. In this work, several intelligent models along with a new mathematical correlation are presented in terms of methanol concentration in aqueous phase and temperature to precisely forecast the methanol loss in the saturated hydrocarbons phase. An excellent match was noticed between the calculated results and literature data.     

基于Logistic模型的水污染经济损失计量研究——以大沽夹河为例

首先讨论了水资源的价值及其计量.水污染经济损失,究其实质是由于水资源受污染而导致其使用价值降低或消失而造成的.在回顾已有的水污染经济损失计算模式的基础上,针对计算中存在的不足,提出了运用logistic模型来研究水污染造成的经济损失.并根据烟台市环保局提供的大沽夹河流域2002-2004年水质监测资料,研究该流域由于水污染而带来的经济损失,得出相应的结论.最后提出了一些防止和控制水污染的有效措施,以引起人们的警惕.     

Spillover of Agriculturally Subsidized Predators as a Potential Threat to Native Insect Herbivores in Fragmented Landscapes

Abstract:  Habitat loss and fragmentation can have strong negative impacts on populations of some native species. Spillover of generalist natural enemies from the surrounding landscape matrix is one mechanism potentially generating such effects, yet this has been rarely studied in insects. We examined the influence of habitat conversion to agriculture on the abundance and potential effects of predatory coccinellid beetles on native insect herbivores within 12 grassland remnants in central Nebraska (U.S.A.). Results of sweep sampling revealed that coccinellids were three to six times more abundant at native grassland sites embedded within cropland-dominated landscapes compared with control sites in grassland-dominated landscapes over the 3 years of the study. Exclusion experiments further demonstrated that predation intensity was strongly related to coccinellid abundances across sites and that coccinellids can dramatically reduce densities of a native aphid herbivore. In contrast to studies of specialized insect parasitoids, which have generally found reduced enemy pressure in fragmented landscapes, our results suggest that native herbivores may in some cases experience increased consumer pressure in landscapes with increasing habitat loss because of spillover of generalist predators from surrounding cropland habitats.     

流固耦合下U型金属波纹管损耗因子研究

利用模态分析的方法对有、无介质以及波高、波厚对波纹管损耗因子的影响进行了研究,根据数值分析结果,得到了波纹管不同参数对损耗因子的影响变化曲线。结果表明,介质压力在3.2 MPa处存在一个损耗因子峰值;集中力的拉/压力对损耗因子的影响规律是相反的,拉力增加损耗因子减小而压力增加损耗因子增加;波高与损耗因子之间近似存在一种线性关系;壁厚为0.8 mm时损耗因子值最小。最后,通过试验验证了有限元模型和数值分析的可靠性和准确性。     

Effects of wastewater discharge on formation of Fe plaque on root surface and radial oxygen loss of mangrove roots

Effects of wastewater discharge on radial oxygen loss (ROL), formation of iron (Fe) plaque on root surface, and their correlations in Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Poir and Excoecaria agallocha L. were investigated. ROL along a lateral root increased more rapidly in control than that in strong wastewater (with pollutant concentrations ten times of that in municipal sewage, 10NW) treatment, but less Fe plaque was formed in control for both plants. For B. gymnorrhiza receiving 10NW, Fe plaque formation was more at basal and mature zones than at root tip, while opposite trend was shown in E. agallocha. At day 0, the correlation between ROL and Fe plaque was insignificant, but negative and positive correlations were found in 10NW and control, respectively, at day 105, suggesting that more ROL was induced leading to more Fe plaque. However, excess Fe plaque also served as a ‘barrier’ to prevent excessive ROL in 10NW plants.     

mRNA expression of a cadmium-responsive gene is a sensitive biomarker of cadmium exposure in the soil collembolan Folsomia candida

The gene expression of environmental organisms is useful as a biomarker of environmental pollution. One of its advantages is high sensitivity. We identified the cDNA of a novel cadmium-responsive gene in the soil collembolan Folsomia candida. The deduced protein, designated “metallothionein-like motif containing protein” (MTC), was cysteine-rich and contained a metallothionein-like motif with similarity to metallothionein, but had a much longer sequence than metallothionein and contained repeated sequences of amino acids. Expression of MTC mRNA was sensitively induced by cadmium exposure at 0.3 mg/kg of dry food, a concentration at which toxic effects are not observed, but expression was not affected by γ-ray exposure (an inducer of oxidative stress). These findings suggest that MTC is involved in cadmium-binding processes rather than in oxidative-stress responses. In conclusion, we suggest that gene expression of MTC may be a candidate biomarker for detecting low levels of cadmium contamination in soil.     

Linking NE1545 gene expression with cell volume changes in Nitrosomonas europaea cells exposed to aromatic hydrocarbons

Nitrosomonas europaea, a model ammonia oxidizing bacterium, was exposed to a wide variety of aromatic hydrocarbons in 3 h batch assays. The expression of NE1545, a phenol sentinel gene involved in fatty acid metabolism, was monitored via quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and a Coulter Counter technique was used to monitor changes in cell volume. Decreases in cell volume and NE1545 gene expression correlated strongly with exposure to aromatic hydrocarbons that possessed a single polar group substitution (e.g. phenol and aniline). Aromatic hydrocarbons that contain no polar group substitutions (e.g. toluene) or multiple polar group substitutions (e.g. p-hydroquinone) caused negligible changes in NE1545 expression and cell volume. The oxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons by N. europaea from configurations without a single polar group to one with two polar groups (e.g. p-cresol oxidized to 4-hydroxybenzyl alcohol) and from configurations with no polar groups to one with a single polar group (e.g. ethylbenzene oxidized to 4-ethylphenol) greatly influenced NE1545 gene expression and observed changes in cell volume. Nitrification inhibition in N. europaea by the aromatic hydrocarbons was found to be completely reversible; however, the decreases in cell volume were not reversible suggesting a physical change in cell membrane composition. Ammonia monooxygenase blocking studies showed that the chemical exposure that was responsible for the cell volume decrease and up-regulation in gene expression and not the observed inhibition. N. europaea is the first bacterium shown to experience significant changes in cell volume when exposed to μM concentrations of aromatic hydrocarbons, three orders of magnitude lower than previous studies with other bacteria.