Application of catastrophe loss modelling to promote property insurance in developing countries

Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance‐based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries.     

安徽省农作物干旱损失动态评估模型及其试用

利用安徽省78个气象站1971-2005年资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型和一季稻作物系数计算作物需水量,得到针对一季稻的农业干旱指标;在分析了1980年以来一季稻主要发育期变化不大的基础上,利用多年农业气象观测资料,采用詹森乘法作物-水分模型新解法进行一季稻干旱敏感性系数分解,得到一季稻逐旬敏感性系数;建立了基于农业干旱强度、作物敏感性和区域脆弱性的一季稻旱灾损失评估模型。试用结果表明,模型的相对误差大部分为20%～35%,绝对误差为2.9～4.0,基本满足业务应用。由于各地水稻品种不同,抗灾能力也有差异,因此模型误差仍偏大,需进一步修正模型,并加强抗灾能力对减轻灾害损失贡献的研究。     

长江三峡库区移民道路工程地质环境质量损益经济评价研究

工程地质环境质量损益经济评价,是环境经济学的分支——地质环境经济学的重要组成部分,其核心是将工程与地质环境间相互关系的地学信息转换为易于政府决策部门使用的经济信息,以保证实现人类工程活动与地质环境保护相统一。三峡库区地质环境条件相对恶劣,对道路工程建设不利。因此,移民道路工程能否合理利用和保护地质环境将直接关系到移民道路地质环境质量损益经济评价的提标体系、评价模型等,丰富了地质环境经济学理论。评价结果,阐明了移民道路工程合理开发利用和保护库区地质环境的途径,对库区正在进行的移民活动,具有现实的指导意义。     

高架复合道路交通噪声的声屏障A计权声插入损失的计算

对解决高架复合道路声屏障的声插入值损失的计算问题,本文阐述了高架复合道路在不同位置设立的声屏障,在车辆类型不同,车速不同及车流量不同的条件下对交通噪声Ａ计权声插入损失的计算方法,理论模型的计算结果与实测值基本相符,误差在１．５ｄＢ（Ａ）以内,该模型在车流量较低的夜间,对衡量设立声屏的高架复合道路噪声及其对环境的影响程度有重要实际意义。     

水污染造成湖泊水环境价值损失研究--以福地湖为例

运用以水污染损失率为基础的评价方法 ,对水环境价值损失计算方法进行了详细的介绍 ,并以福地湖为例 ,计算其水环境价值的损失量。结果表明 ,近两年来 ,福地湖由于污染造成的水环境价值损失急速增加     

城市污水厂污泥高温好氧堆肥氮素转变行为研究

采用两段式高温好氧堆肥工艺 ,研究了污泥堆肥中氮素转变规律。研究表明 ,硝化作用受到温度和NH+ 4 N含量的影响显著。一次发酵中 ,堆料平均温度高于 4 0℃ ,硝化作用受到强烈抑制 ;二次发酵后期 ,由于NH+ 4 N浓度降低 ,故硝化过程减缓。不同调理剂及操作条件对氮素损失影响较大 ,利用腐熟堆肥作为调理剂可以减少氮素损失。适当降低堆料温度、增加初始含水率及适当减少初始挥发份含量等措施均可在一定程度上减少氮素损失     

密云水库上游流域非点源氮流失特征研究

利用密云水库上游流域2001年、2004年地表水质监测数据,从流域土地利用和景观格局特征出发,分析了非点源氮流失的时空差异以及影响因素。结果表明:雨季中水体中氮污染物的浓度明显高于雨季后的浓度,硝态氮(NO3--N)是是氮在地表水环境的主要存在形式,而且与总氮(TN)呈很好的线性关系;村庄、农地等人类活动比较剧烈的流域,氮的季节变异较大;而在有稳定水源或径流季节变异较小的流域,氮的季节变异较小;不同的景观分布格局也对氮的流失产生影响,源景观更靠近监测点氮污染物浓度要高于汇景观更靠近监测点的氮污染物浓度;在坡度较大的东北和西北地区,(TN)和(NO3--N)的浓度要明显大于坡度较小的库北地区。     

Evaluating the potential of biodiversity offsets to achieve net gain

Evaluating the outcomes and tracking the trajectory of biodiversity offsets is essential to demonstrating their effectiveness as a mechanism to conciliate development and conservation. We reviewed the literature to determine the principles that should underpin biodiversity offset planning and the criteria for offset evaluation at the project level. According to the literature, the core principles of equivalence, additionality, and permanence are used as criteria to evaluate conservation outcomes of offsets. We applied the criteria to evaluate offsets of a large iron ore mining project in the Atlantic Forest in Brazil. We examined equivalence in terms of the amount of area per biodiversity value affected and fauna and flora similarity, additionality in terms of landscape connectivity, and permanence in terms of guarantees to ensure protection and restoration offsets lasting outcomes. We found an offset ratio (amount of affected area:offset area) of 1:1.8 for forests and 1:2 for grasslands. Ecological equivalence (i.e., similarity between affected and offset areas) was found for forested areas, but not for ferruginous rupestrian grasslands or for fauna. Landscape metrics showed that connectivity improved relative to the preproject situation as a result of locating restoration offsets in the largest and best-connected forest patch. Permanence of offsets was addressed by establishing covenants and management measures, but financial guarantees to cover maintenance costs after mine closure were lacking. Offsets should be equivalent in type and size, provide conservation outcomes that would not be obtained without them (additionality), and be lasting (permanence). To monitor and evaluate offsets, it is necessary to determine how well these 3 principles are applied in the planning, implementation, and maintenance of offsets. Achieving measurable conservation outcomes from offsets is a long-term endeavor that requires sustained management support, and is information intensive. Thus, offsets require ongoing monitoring and evaluation as well as adaptive management.     

自然资源价值论及其在环境影响评价中的应用

对自然资源价值理论进行了论述,运用环境经济学方法分析了现行环境影响评价之不足,提出应用自然资源价值对环境损益进行定量分析,是提高环境影响评价有效性的必然途径.最后介绍了自然资源的价值评价方法.     

污染损失率法评价矿山井下空气质量

使用污染损失率法对矿山井下空气质量进行了评价.参考空气质量标准,确定了污染损失率公式中的待定参数.根据确定的污染损失率公式,选取矿山井下常见空气污染物TSP、CO、NOx、O3,对金属矿山井下空气质量进行了评价.结果表明:评价结果与实际环境质量比较吻合,评价方法含义明确,计算简便.