港口石油化工码头及其库区灾害事故应急系统研究

通过对石油化工码头及其库区危险因素的分析,提出编制应急预案重点要考虑的问题是:明确重大危险源性质与布局;灾害事故的类型及规模;灾害事故等级的划分;一旦发生灾害事故,谁来指挥,谁来救灾,拿什么救灾,怎么救灾的应急反应机制和整个应急过程的通讯联络。为使应急预案具有可操作性,提出了预案编制要点。石油化工码头及库区灾害事故应急系统除编制灾害事故应急预案外,还应实施由重大危险源电子地图信息管理,油品(化学品)的理化特性、应急处理方法及防护措施基本信息查询,可燃有毒气体泄漏扩散模拟预测和池火热辐射强度模拟预测等组成的危险源管理地理信息系统和灾害事故灾情快速预测系统。     

岷江上游生态脆弱性的模糊评价

岷江上游是四川省乃至我国西南的重要生态屏障，但由于自然条件和人为活动的影响，该区域已成为典型的生态脆弱区。选取了反映该地区生态脆弱性的14个代表性指标，根据四川省和全国的对比结果拟定了相应的分级和评价标准，并采用模糊综合评价法对其生态脆弱度进行了评价，得出了该区域处于高度脆弱状态的结果，加强岷江上游生态脆弱区的整治势在必行。     

基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟

地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大 ,192 3年日本关东大地震中 ,大火烧毁了 4 4 .7万栋房屋 ,烧死5 .6万余人。笔者计算了建筑物发生地震次生火灾概率的大小 ,并在此基础上对建筑物发生地震次生火灾的危险性进行了模拟。通过对基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟 ,为预防地震次生火灾的发生提供有力的依据 ,同时为地震次生火灾发生后进行应急救灾提供了有力的支持。     

Risk-Based Analysis of Environmental Monitoring Data: Application to Heavy Metals in North Carolina Surface Waters

The state of North Carolina's Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) conducts routine water quality monitoring throughout the state to assess the health of aquatic systems. The current study reports the results of a retrospective (1990–2000) ecological risk assessment of six heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, and zinc) in 17 North Carolina basins that was conducted to estimate the risk of heavy metal toxicity to freshwater organisms and assess the sufficiency of NCDENR's monitoring data to identify water-quality-related ecological threats. Acute and chronic ecotoxicological thresholds (ETs) were calculated for each metal based upon the 10th percentile of species sensitivity distributions and were normalized for water hardness. Statewide probabilities (expressed as percentages) of a random sample exceeding acute or chronic ETs among the six metals ranged from 0.01% to 12.19% and 0.76% to 21.21%, respectively, with copper having the highest and arsenic and mercury the lowest risk. Basin-specific probabilities varied significantly depending upon water hardness and presumably watershed development. Although the majority of specific sites where data were collected were at low risk for metal toxicity, some specific sites had a high probability of toxic events associated with one or more metals. Analytical detection limits for metals were frequently higher than estimated chronic ET, limiting the ability to assess the risk of chronic toxicity in soft-water basins. Results suggest risk-based criteria may be useful for assessing and validating the sufficiency of monitoring programs and prioritizing management goals.     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

NUTRIENT CONTRIBUTION OF NONPOINT SOURCE RUNOFF IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: A Geographic Information System (GIS) based non‐point source runoff model is developed for the Las Vegas Valley, Nevada, to estimate the nutrient loads during the years 2000 and 2001. The estimated nonpoint source loads are compared with current wastewater treatment facilities loads to determine the non‐point source contribution of total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and total suspended solids (TSS) on a monthly and annual time scale. An innovative calibration procedure is used to estimate the pollutant concentrations for different land uses based on available water quality data at the outlet. Results indicate that the pollutant concentrations are higher for the Las Vegas Valley than previous published values for semi‐arid and arid regions. The total TP and TN loads from nonpoint sources are approximately 15 percent and 4 percent, respectively, of the total load to the receiving water body, Lake Mead. The TP loads during wet periods approach the permitted loads from the wastewater treatment plants that discharge into Las Vegas Wash. In addition, the GIS model is used to track pollutant loads in the stream channels for one of the subwatersheds. This is useful for planning the location of Best Management Practices to control nonpoint pollutant loads.     

INTEGRATING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM,A SCIENTIFIC VISUALIZATION SYSTEM,AND A PRECIPITATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.     

基于GIS的环境应急指挥系统的研究

叙述了环境突发事件应急处理工作程序和流程,环境应急指挥基于GIS系统下各模块的功能作用。应急指挥系统的应用对减少突发环境污染事故的发生以及事故造成的社会、环境危害,提高中国应对突发事故的能力具有重要的社会效益。     

建立在GIS平台上的环境应急监测管理系统模型设计——以廊坊市为例

以廊坊市为例研究了以GIS技术系统为支持平台的环境应急监测管理系统(EEMMS),结合实际给出了该系统的框架模型。EEMMS系统模型的应用可为突发性环境污染事故应急监测提供快速、可行的工作方法和模式,为环境事故应急指挥系统决策提供及时、有效、科学的技术支持。