Adaptation of Climate Model Projections of Streamflow to Account for Upstream Anthropogenic Impairments

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.     

Waste management in a more unequal world: centring inequality in our waste and climate change discourse

ABSTRACT

Climate change is expected to contribute to global inequality, and exacerbate ecological risk for the world's poor. Despite recent trends within waste management academic discourse, which has begun to engage with inequality, and its underlying socio-economic and socio-political causes, discussions of inequality have so far remained absent from our investigations on climate change's impacts on waste management systems and practices. The purpose of the discussion is to call for a centring of inequality within our waste and climate discourse. I identify two main pathways for scholarly investigation, specifically, developing alternative waste management solutions for contexts in which waste management systems fail, which do not just perpetuate existing inequalities, and addressing the growing inequality in waste management technology and practice between the Global North and the Global South.     

Constructing and justifying risk and accountability after extreme events: public administration and stakeholders’ responses to a wildfire disaster

ABSTRACT

The impacts of extreme weather events, causing severe storms and wildfires, cascade across administrative borders within a country, challenging the steering capacity of governance networks at different political scales. This paper examines how accountability and risk were constructed and negotiated in the aftermath of Sweden’s largest wildfire. It draws on results from an interview study with executives of organizations and landowners involved, and an analysis of government reports about the wildfire’s cause and consequences. Although the fire was human-caused, public administrative bodies paid considerable attention to the local emergency services and their poor handling of the wildfire, caused by lack of knowledge of forest fire behavior. The study confirms many of the challenges associated with governance networks. It finds that issues about who to hold accountable, in what forum and for what issue are not fully addressed, being overwhelmed by demands for better knowledge of forest fire prevention and improved coordination and collaboration. To conclude, the paper calls for a better-informed public administration, forest sector and interrelated networks that take responsibility for their actions or lack thereof.     

Planning for cooler cities: a plan quality evaluation for Urban Heat Island consideration

ABSTRACT

City strategic plans and enabling policies provide a framework for and inform future development across multiple scales. An exemplar city strategic plan will be one based on evidence, enabled by complementary policy outcomes, and built on the knowledge of the existing landscape. This study evaluated the plan quality of eighteen metropolitan strategic plans for city members in the 100 Resilient Cities initiative. A protocol was developed containing thirty-two indicators to assess plans capacity to act as a strategic planning tool to develop, analyse and implement strategies for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The evaluation indicated that strategies addressing the UHI are rarely included in metropolitan plans. Strategic plans showed a lack of evidence-base to inform the potential actions. Urban warming is often linked to extreme weather events anticipated under climate change, not the UHI as a systemic and increasing phenomenon. We recommend that the pathway to addressing UHI mitigation and adaptation may lie in its nexus to aspects of climate change that concurrently can serve to support liveable and resilient cities.     

Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) set an ambitious target to achieve a conservation assessment for all known plant species by 2020. We consolidated digitally available plant conservation assessments and reconciled their scientific names and assessment status to predefined standards to provide a quantitative measure of progress toward this target. The 241,919 plant conservation assessments generated represent 111,824 accepted land plant species (vascular plants and bryophytes, not algae). At least 73,081 and up to 90,321 species have been assessed at the global scale, representing 21–26% of known plant species. Of these plant species, at least 27,148 and up to 32,542 are threatened. Eighty plant families, including some of the largest, such as Asteraceae, Orchidaceae, and Rubiaceae, are underassessed and should be the focus of assessment effort if the GSPC target is to be met by 2020. Our data set is accessible online (ThreatSearch) and is a baseline that can be used to directly support other GSPC targets and plant conservation action. Although around one‐quarter of a million plant assessments have been compiled, the majority of plants are still unassessed. The challenge now is to build on this progress and redouble efforts to document conservation status of unassessed plants to better inform conservation decisions and conserve the most threatened species.     

Carbon dioxide and methane emission from subsurface peatlands and its controlling factors北大核心CSCD

Peatland is an efficient carbon dioxide (CO2) sink on the continent and plays an important role in global carbon cycle. Climate change and human activities, two of the notable global environmental issues, have accelerated the degradation of peatlands during recent years. Global warming will increase the rate of aerobic decomposition in the surface of peatlands. Carbon stored in the subsurface of peatlands will be metabolized if the climatic conditions become favorable for decomposition. This study reviewed the carbon circle of subsurface peatland in natural environment and in environments disturbed by human activity or climate change. Furthermore, the major factors (environmental and human factors) that affect the carbon cycle were also discussed. According to a previous study, subsurface peatland will rapidly participate in the carbon cycle when the peatland is degraded. Water level, vegetation, and temperature were the main natural factors affecting the carbon cycle, whereas drainage, farming, and grazing were the main anthropogenic factors. Further studies should focus on different soil layer carbon dynamics, inorganic carbon content, and conservation and restoration of peatlands. The study methods should be a combination of macro with micro scale and focus on developing deep peat research techniques. Most of the previous studies focused on greenhouse gas emission and their response factors in short-term experiments. Thus, the mechanism and process of subsurface carbon are not clear and needs further study. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Global fallout Pu recorded in lacustrine sediments in Lake Hongfeng, SW China

Studies on the distribution and isotope compositions of fallout Pu are important for source characterization of possible future non-fallout Pu contamination in aquatic environments, and useful for dating of recent sediments to understand the pollution history of environmental contaminants. We present the historical record of atmospheric Pu fallout reconstructed from a sediment core from Lake Hongfeng, China. The Pu activity profile was in agreement with the 137Cs profile. Inventories were 50.7 Bq m(-2) for 239+240Pu and 1586 Bq m(-2) for 137Cs. The average 240Pu/239Pu atom ratio was 0.185+/-0.009, indicating that Pu originated from global stratospheric fallout rather than from direct tropospheric or close-in fallout from the Chinese nuclear testing conducted in the 1970s. Our data suggested that Lake Hongfeng would be an ideal setting for monitoring atmospheric fallout and environmental changes in this region.     

Dissipation of four forest-use herbicides at high latitudes

Background, aim, and scope  Large-scale deforestation is occurring in subarctic North America following clearing by salvage logging or insect attack. Numerous shrubs, herbs, and deciduous tree species tend to dominate areas on which stands of white spruce have grown. In the absence of economically advantageous mechanical methods, several herbicides have value in efforts to reforest by planting white spruce. Glyphosate, imazapyr, triclopyr, and hexazinone are all capable of selectively removing many competing species, but there is concern about whether they would degrade naturally or persist owing to the frigid climate. Materials and methods  We established test plots with all four herbicides in upland and river bottom sites at 65°N and 58°N latitudes. The northern site has extremely cold winters, with soils that freeze to a depth of 1–2 m, and precipitation of 275 mm/year. The southern site has heavy rain and snowfall, amounting to 2,250 mm/year evenly distributed. Soil seldom freezes deeply. On each test plot, one of the four herbicides was applied at twice the normal operational use rate to facilitate detection. They were applied at the normal timing, with hexazinone, imazapyr, and triclopyr applied in June and glyphosate applied in fall. Soils were sampled immediately after treatment and those samples used as references for dissipation data gathered over the next 11–14 months from soil 0- to 15- and 15- to 45-cm depths. Results  Dissipation rates did not follow first-order rates because freezing conditions slowed most microbial activity. All products dissipated to close to or below detection limits within the time of the study. Dissipation from vegetation was substantially more rapid and depended on the nature of the plants treated as well as the product used. While soil residues dissipated more slowly than in temperate regions, they did display consistent dissipation patterns during above-freezing conditions and also the influence of microbial activity. Mobility was very limited with all products but hexazinone. Discussion  These products dissipate during summer in high latitudes much as they would in temperate climates. Winter changes are small, but are not unlike some changes reported elsewhere under freezing conditions. Unlike many other studies, soil water did not influence dissipation heavily, but the high latitude and semi-arid climate also did not create severely droughty soils. Residues in plants were much higher than those in soils, but denatured the vegetation quickly, leading to unsuitability for forage in any case. Conclusions  Low toxicity of these products and their metabolites combined with consistent dissipation and low mobility suggest that toxic hazard of their use at high latitudes need not be a matter of serious concern to humans, terrestrial wildlife, or aquatic systems. They are safe for use in management and rehabilitation of boreal forests when used properly. Recommendations and perspectives  Dissipation at rates approaching those in warmer climates offer a hypothesis that microflora native to high latitudes may be adapted to destruction of such molecules at lower temperatures than may be indicated by experiments with microflora adapted to warmer climates. Residues pose no observable risk to wildlife or humans in the area of use when products are applied properly. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available for authorized users.     

Comparative analysis of two tobacco surveillance questionnaires used in NHANES: accuracy of self-reported smoking status

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) uses two tobacco use surveillance questionnaires. One is administered during an at-home interview (HI) and the other, during an examination session at a mobile examination center (MEC). NHANES data for the years 1999–2012 were used to evaluate the consistency of responses to tobacco surveillance questions in HI and MEC interview. In addition, accuracy of self-reported smoking status was evaluated. Of those who reported to be daily cigarette smokers during HI, 18.7% reported to be either some-day smokers or nonsmokers during MEC interview. Of those who reported to be some-day cigarette smokers during HI, 22.1% reported to be daily smokers and 17.5% reported to be nonsmokers. Also, 4.1% of those who reported to be nonsmokers during HI reported to be either daily or some-day smokers during MEC interview. Using serum cotinine measurements taken during MEC interview, 27.1% were found to be smokers and 72.9% were found to be nonsmokers. In general, a moderate to high agreement, as measured by the κ statistic, was found between the self-reported responses to tobacco use questions during the home and MEC interviews as well as between smoking statuses based on self-reported and serum cotinine measurements.     

Exploration of spatial morphometry and socioeconomic variables in modelling urban land use change

The incorporation of land use (LU) data with socioeconomic data is a main issue in modelling. This is as a result of difference in data model and scale. This study proposed and tested the change–pattern approach, which allows the incorporation of these data sets in modelling LU change. Focusing on LU dynamics for a selected part of the Thames Gateway within the City of London, the approach tested two different methods of input selection for the modelling operations. Variables selected from these two methods serve as inputs into several neural networks tested in order to identify the direction of change for each of the LU types within the study area. The result shows that direction of LU change across the study area could be identified when spatial morphology of the area and socioeconomic variables are considered. Some classes of change could be identified fairly accurately using landscape metrics indicating level of fragmentation, extent of LU patches, shape complexity of LU patches in combination with some socioeconomic variables.