氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期评价及关键参数对比

发展氢燃料电池汽车被认为是解决能源安全和环境污染问题的理想解决方案之一,为量化探究氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的化石能源消耗和排放情况,运用GaBi软件建模,以新能源汽车相关技术路线为参考,构建我国氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的数据清单并对其全生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值情况进行定量评价计算和预测分析,对不同类型的双极板、不同能量控制策略和不同制氢方式对环境的影响分别进行了对比研究,并对关键数据进行了不确定分析.结果表明,预计到2030年我国每台氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期的化石能源消耗量（ADP_f）、全球变暖潜值（GWP,以CO₂ eq计）和酸化潜值（AP,以SO₂ eq计）分别为1.35×10⁵ MJ、9108 kg和15.79 kg.动力系统生产制造阶段的化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值均高于使用阶段,主要原因是燃料电池堆栈和储氢罐的制造过程.金属双极板、石墨复合双极板和石墨双极板的制造工艺中石墨复合双极板的综合环境效益最好.能量控制策略的优化会使得氢能消耗降低,当氢能消耗降低22.8%时,动力系统的生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值分别降低10.4%和8.3%.相比于甲烷蒸气重整制氢,基于混合电网电解水制氢的动力系统生命周期全球变暖潜值高出53.7%[KG-*6],而基于水电电解水制氢降低39.6%.降低动力系统生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值的措施包括优化能量控制策略降低氢能消耗、规模化发展可再生能源发电电解水制氢产业和聚焦突破燃料电池堆栈关键技术实现性能提升.     

Development of inherent safety and health index for formulated product design

The numerous formulated products which are introduced to the market consist of chemical ingredients that may cause various safety and health hazards to the consumers. Therefore, it is extremely important to practice a systematic methodology to formulate products with acceptable safety and health performances. This work presents an index-based methodology to assess the safety and health hazards of the ingredients during the early formulation stage of product design. Hence, new inherent safety and health sub-indexes are introduced to improve the current safety and health hazards that are needed in formulated product design. The inherent safety and health sub-indexes are assigned with scores based on the degree of potential hazards. A higher score indicates a higher safety risk or severe health effect, and vice versa. The proposed methodology will greatly assist the users to identify the adverse safety and health effects caused by the ingredients. Hence, it is pivotal to eliminate or reduce the safety and health impacts from product usage. A case study on common ingredients used in the formulation of paint is presented on this study to describe the proposed method.     

THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF A SUBALPINE LAKE1

ABSTRACT Atmospheric scientists have predicted that large-scale climatic changes will result from increasing levels of tropospheric CO₂ We have investigated the potential effects of climate change on the primary productivity of Castle Lake, a mountain lake in Northern California. Annual algal productivity was modeled empirically using 25 years of limnological data in order to establish predictive relationships between productivity and the climatic variables of accumulated snow depth and precipitation. The outputs of monthly temperature and precipitation from three general circulation models (GCMs) of doubled atmospheric CO₂ were then used in the regression model to predict annual algal productivity. In all cases, the GCM scenarios predicted increased algal productivity for Castle Lake under cenditions of doubled atmospheric CO₂The primary cause of enhanced productivity was the increased length of the growing season resulting from earlier spring ice-out.     

Joint implementation: Biodiversity and greenhouse gas offsets

One of the most pressing environmental issues today is the possibility that projected increases in global emissions of greenhouse gases from increased deforestation, development, and fossil-fuel combustion could significantly alter global climate patterns. Under the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in Rio de Janeiro during the June 1992 Earth Summit, the United States and other industrialized countries committed to balancing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in the year 2000. Included in the treaty is a provision titled Joint Implementation, whereby industrialized countries assist developing countries in jointly modifying long-term emission trends, either through emission reductions or by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (carbon sequestration). The US Climate Action Plan, signed by President Clinton in 1993, calls for voluntary climate change mitigation measures by various sectors, and the action plan included a new program, the US Initiative on Joint Implementation. Wisconsin Electric decided to invest in a Jl project because its concept encourages creative, cost-effective solutions to environmental problems through partnering, international cooperation, and innovation. The project chosen, a forest preservation and management effort in Belize, will sequester more than five million tons of carbon dioxide over a 40-year period, will become economically selfsustaining after ten years, and will have substantial biodiversity benefits.     

Numerous experiments for the impact of warming climate on the phenology and grain yield of winter wheat

Based on the environmental and crop data at Zhenjiang City, in Jiangsu Province, middle east of China, the growing process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-Wheat model assuming the daily average temperature is 1℃ to 2℃ higher than at the present, which are mostly possible for the change of climate because of enrichment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The simulation results show that warming climate can promote development rate and shorten phenological stages of wheat, and the grain yield will be higher than present. Its impact on the kernel weight and grains per square meter were different for the plantings of various sowing dates. The results of this study suggest that substantial changes in agricultural production and management practices are needed to respond to the climatic changes expected to take place in China.     

Conservation Biology of Caecilian Amphibians

Abstract:  Most of the available data on declining populations of amphibians pertain to frogs and, to a lesser extent, salamanders. In keeping with their generally less understood biology, the population trends and conservation status of caecilian amphibians (Gymnophiona) are also much less known. We reviewed reports of threats to and declines of populations of caecilians. Despite a lack of field-study details (e.g., localities, dates, and sampling methods) and quantitative data, there are several recent reports of threats to and declines and extinctions of caecilians. A range of causal explanations (habitat loss, pollution, chytridiomycosis, and scientific collecting) for these perceived declines have been proposed but little or no associated evidence has been given. Although caecilians are often considered rare and thought to require pristine habitat, published, quantitative data demonstrate that at least some species can occur in high abundance in disturbed, synanthropic environments. Few estimates of caecilian population parameters have been made and very few field methods have been tested, so the assumed rarity of any taxa remains inadequately demonstrated. Distribution and taxonomic data are also inadequate. Because they are generally poorly known and often cryptic, caecilians can be overlooked in standard faunal surveys, meaning that lack of opportunistic collection over several years might not represent evidence of decline. The conservation status of most species must be considered data deficient. More precise assessments will require a substantial increase in all areas of caecilian research, especially those involving new fieldwork. Future reports of caecilian conservation biology need to be explicit and more quantitative.     

温度对金钟藤光合特性的影响

研究了在温度升高(15~35℃)的过程中,离体金钟藤(Merremiaboisiana(Gagn.)vanOoststr.)的一些光合生理指标的变化。结果表明,在15~30℃时,随着温度升高,金钟藤的最大光合速率、光补偿点、气孔导度、胞间CO2摩尔分数、光量子利用率、蒸腾速率都随之升高。在外界环境的光照,CO2摩尔分数和湿度一致的条件下,温度升高能促使金钟藤生长加速,合成更多的有机物。所以,全球气候变暖可能是金钟藤爆发成为有害植物的重要原因之一。     

Long series relationships between global interannual CO2 increment and climate: evidence for stability and change in role of the tropical and boreal-temperate zones

Interannual variability in global CO₂ increment (averaged from the Mauna Loa and South Pole Stations) shows certain strong spatial relationships to both tropical and temperate temperatures. There is a fairly strong positive year-round correlation between tropical mean annual temperatures (leading by 4 months) and annual CO₂ throughout the time series since 1960, agreeing with the generally held view that the tropics play a major role in determining inter-annual variability in CO₂ increment, with a major CO₂ pulse following a warm year in the tropics. This ‘almost no lag’ climatic response is very strong during winter and relatively stable in time. However, the correlation with tropical temperature appears to have weakened in the first years of the 1990s in correspondence of the Pinatubo eruption and the positive phase of the AO/NAO. A secondary concurrent temperature signal is linked to summer variations of north temperate belt. Northern summer temperatures in the region 30–60 °N—and especially in the land area corresponding to the central east USA—have become relatively more closely correlated with CO₂ increment. This trend has become increasingly stronger in recent years, suggesting an increasing role for growing season processes in the northern midlatitudes in affecting global CO₂ increment. Once non-lagged annual tropical temperature variations are accounted for, terrestrial ecosystems, especially the temperate-boreal biomes, also show a coherent large scale lagged response. This involves an inverse response to annual temperature of preceding years centered at around 2 years before. This lagged response is most likely linked to internal biogeochemical cycles, in particular N cycling. During the study period north boreal ecosystems show a strengthening of the lagged correlation with temperature in recent years, while the lagged correlation with areas of tropical ecosystems has weakened. Residuals from a multiple correlations based on these climatic signals are directly correlated with SO, confirming an additional important role of upwelling in interannual variability of CO₂ increment. Cooler summers following the Pinatubo eruption and the possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO/AO) are discussed as factors responsible for the shift in the relative importance of different regions over time during the series of data.     

全球升温下中国温度区域变化的稳定性

利用中国气象中心160站点的气温观测资料,对中国20世纪后半期的气温变化进行方差分析,结果发现气温变化幅度有显著的纬度效应:纬度越高,方差值越大,说明气温变化的幅度也越大。在季节上,气温变化幅度差异显著,普遍是冬季大,夏季小。气温变化幅度的纬度效应在区域分布上,冬季的纬度效应出现在35°N以北,35°N以南不存在纬度效应;夏季的纬度效应表现在34°N以南,34°N以北没有明显的纬度效应。30°N～35°N之间的地带是冬夏季节差异最小的地带,从这一地带开始,不管往南还是往北,气温变化的季节差异都趋于增大。这种格局与我国升温的区域分布是一致的,说明我国最近半个世纪以来的气温变化是持续升高的。最后对气温变化的区域差别进行了机制上的探讨。