Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

Carbon Monitoring Costs and their Effect on Incentives to Sequester Carbon through Forestry

Technically, forestry projects have thepotential to contribute significantly tothe mitigation of global warming, but manysuch projects may not be economicallyattractive at current estimates of carbon(C) prices. Forest C is, in a sense, a newcommodity that must be measured toacceptable standards for the commodity toexist. This will require that credible Cmeasuring and monitoring procedures be inplace. The amount of sequestered C that canbe claimed by a project is normallyestimated based on sampling a number ofsmall plots, and the precision of thisestimate depends on the number of plotssampled and on the spatial variability ofthe site. Measuring C can be expensive andhence it is important to select anefficient C-monitoring strategy to makeprojects competitive in the C market. Thispaper presents a method to determinewhether a forestry project will benefitfrom C trading, and to find the optimalmanagement strategy in terms of forestcycle length and C-monitoring strategyA model of an Acacia mangiumplantation in southern Sumatra, Indonesiais used to show that forestry projects canbe economically attractive under a range ofconditions, provided that the project islarge enough to absorb fixed costs.Modeling results indicate that between 15and 38 Mg of Certified Emission Reductions(CERs) per hectare can be captured by thesimulated plantation under optimalmanagement, with optimality defined asmaximizing the present value of profitsobtained from timber and C. The optimalcycle length ranged from 12 to 16 years andthe optimal number of sample plots rangedfrom 0 to 30. Costs of C monitoring (inpresent-value terms) were estimated to bebetween 0.45 (Mg C)^-1 to 2.11 (MgC)^-1 depending on the spatialvariability of biomass, the variable costsof C monitoring and the discount rate.     

Why a 100-Year Time Horizon should be used for GlobalWarming Mitigation Calculations

Global warming mitigation calculationsrequire consistent procedures for handlingtime in order to compare `permanent' gainsfrom energy-sector mitigation options with`impermanent' gains from many forest-sectoroptions. A critical part of carbonaccounting methodologies such as thosebased on `ton-years' (the product of thenumber of tons of carbon times the numberof years that each ton is held out of theatmosphere) is definition of a timehorizon, or the time period over whichcarbon impacts and benefits are considered. Here a case is made for using a timehorizon of 100 years. This choice avoidsdistortions created by much longer timehorizons that would lead to decisionsinconsistent with societal behavior inother spheres; it also avoids a rapidincrease in the implied value of time ifhorizons shorter than 100 years are used.Selection of a time horizon affectsdecisions on financial mechanisms andcarbon credit. Simple adaptations canallow a time horizon to be specified andused to calculate mitigation benefits andat the same time reserve a given percentageof weight in decision making forgenerations beyond the end of the timehorizon. The choice of a time horizon willheavily influence whether mitigationoptions such as avoided deforestation areconsidered viable.     

"三S"技术应用与环境科技发展

叙述了遥感，全球定位系统和地理信息系统和环境科技发展的关系，以及在环境科技中的实际应用，提出了在大力开展集ＲＳ，ＧＰＳ，ＧＩＳ于一体，适合环境科学应用的，综合多功能的“三Ｓ”技术，以适应可持续发展的需要。     

Carbon Management in Agricultural Soils

World soils have been a major source of enrichment of atmospheric concentration of CO₂ ever since the dawn of settled agriculture, about 10,000 years ago. Historic emission of soil C is estimated at 78 ± 12 Pg out of the total terrestrial emission of 136 ± 55 Pg, and post-industrial fossil fuel emission of 270 ± 30 Pg. Most soils in agricultural ecosystems have lost 50 to 75% of their antecedent soil C pool, with the magnitude of loss ranging from 30 to 60 Mg C/ha. The depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is exacerbated by soil drainage, plowing, removal of crop residue, biomass burning, subsistence or low-input agriculture, and soil degradation by erosion and other processes. The magnitude of soil C depletion is high in coarse-textured soils (e.g., sandy texture, excessive internal drainage, low activity clays and poor aggregation), prone to soil erosion and other degradative processes. Thus, most agricultural soils contain soil C pool below their ecological potential. Adoption of recommend management practices (e.g., no-till farming with crop residue mulch, incorporation of forages in the rotation cycle, maintaining a positive nutrient balance, use of manure and other biosolids), conversion of agriculturally marginal soils to a perennial land use, and restoration of degraded soils and wetlands can enhance the SOC pool. Cultivation of peatlands and harvesting of peatland moss must be strongly discouraged, and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems encouraged especially in developing countries. The rate of SOC sequestration is 300 to 500 Kg C/ha/yr under intensive agricultural practices, and 0.8 to 1.0 Mg/ha/yr through restoration of wetlands. In soils with severe depletion of SOC pool, the rate of SOC sequestration with adoption of restorative measures which add a considerable amount of biomass to the soil, and irrigated farming may be 1.0 to 1.5 Mg/ha/yr. Principal mechanisms of soil C sequestration include aggregation, high humification rate of biosolids applied to soil, deep transfer into the sub-soil horizons, formation of secondary carbonates and leaching of bicarbonates into the ground water. The rate of formation of secondary carbonates may be 10 to 15 Kg/ha/yr, and the rate of leaching of bicarbonates with good quality irrigation water may be 0.25 to 1.0 Mg C/ha/yr. The global potential of soil C sequestration is 0.6 to 1.2 Pg C/yr which can off-set about 15% of the fossil fuel emissions.     

秸秆与化肥减量配施对菜地土壤温室气体排放的影响

采用静态箱/气相色谱法,2016年11月至2017年9月通过田间原位试验,设置了无物料还田(CK)、常规化肥(F)、秸秆还田配施100%化肥(100FS)、秸秆还田配施70%化肥(70FS)、秸秆还田配施60%化肥(60FS)、秸秆还田配施50%化肥(50FS),对比分析了在化肥减量的基础上,配施秸秆处理的菜地(莴笋-卷心菜-辣椒轮作)土壤CO_2、CH_4、N_2O动态变化特征及温室效应,研究秸秆与化肥减量配施对菜地温室气体排放的影响.结果表明,土壤CO_2、CH_4、N_2O排放具有一定的季节变化规律,排放高峰主要集中在4~8月,且在施肥灌水后均会出现气体的排放峰.秸秆与化肥配施较常规施肥(F)处理提高了土壤N_2O排放量,累积排放量及其排放系数,其中100FS处理的效果最为明显,辣椒季的累积排放通量明显高于莴笋季和卷心菜季,高达60.76 kg·hm~(-2)(P0.05),N_2O的排放系数(以N_2O-N/N计)为0.138 kg·kg-1,而秸秆与化肥减量配施较100FS处理可以降低氮肥的N_2O排放系数.与对照CK和F处理相比,70FS处理降低了土壤CO_2排放量和累积排放量,分别为55.28~1 831.62 mg·(m2·h)-1和7 502.13~25 988.55 kg·hm~(-2),而其他秸秆与化肥配施处理均增加了CO_2累积排放通量,尤其是60FS和50FS处理.对土壤CH_4排放而言,辣椒季的排放波动较大,除CK外,各处理的土壤CH_4累积排放量多为负值,表现为大气中CH_4汇;秸秆与化肥减量30%~50%配施处理均降低了辣椒季的土壤CH_4排放量和累积排放通量,而100FS处理提高了CH_4排放量和累积排放通量.与CK和F处理相比,除70FS外,100FS、60FS和50FS均显著提高了GWP.总体上,从温室气体排放角度,在常规化肥施用的基础上减量30%再与秸秆配施可以降低土壤CO_2和CH_4排放,缓解温室气体的增温潜势,而对土壤N_2O减排效果不显著.     

1951—2014年中国北方地区季节气温突变与变暖停滞年份的时空变异性

利用中国北方357个气象站1951—2014年的季（月）平均最低气温,平均气温和平均最高气温数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了中国北方地区三类气温季节突变与变暖停滞年份时空变异性。结果表明：平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温各季节整体随纬度降低突变和变暖停滞年份变晚,突变至变暖停滞周期缩短。东北春、冬季突变和变暖停滞整体最早（20世纪70年代至80年代、1993—2002年）,华北次之,西北最晚（20世纪80年代至21世纪前10 a、1996—2010年）;夏、秋季突变华北最早（20世纪70年代和90年代）,东北次之,西北最晚（20世纪90年代至21世纪前10 a）,变暖停滞年份地区差异较小。平均最高气温未突变和平均最低气温未停滞站点较多,均主要分布在山地、高纬度地区和华北平原南部,其周边区域突变及停滞年份相对偏晚。同类气温突变和变暖停滞年份整体上分别按冬（1981—1990年）、春、秋、夏季（1994—2008年）和冬（1995—2008年）、秋、夏、春季（1998—2010年）顺序依次变晚,冬→春→秋→夏季突变至变暖停滞周期依次缩短。春、夏和冬季均为平均最低气温整体突变最早（1972—1999、1987—1999、1971—2000年）,平均气温次之,平均最高气温最晚（1975—2008、1994—2008、1972—2006年）,秋季与之不同。春、夏季整体按平均最低气温（1994—2008、1997—2008年）、平均气温、平均最高气温（均为1997—2010年）停滞依次变晚,秋、冬季与之相反。各季节突变至变暖停滞周期整体按平均最低气温（9~18 a）、平均气温和平均最高气温（5~12 a）依次缩短。夏季三类气温均在华北南部（低纬度）突变最早,与研究区整体规律相悖,该地区大部分站点未停滞,亦与突变早停滞也早的整体规律不同。     

Past and Present Effectiveness of Protected Areas for Conservation of Naturally and Anthropogenically Rare Plant Species

Abstract:  The Global Strategy of Plant Conservation states that at least 60% of threatened plant species should be within protected areas. This goal has been met in some regions with long traditions of plant protection. We used gap analysis to explore how particular groups of species of conservation interest, representing different types of natural or anthropogenic rarity, have been covered by protected areas on a national scale in Estonia during the last 100 years. Species-accumulation curves indicated that plant species that are naturally rare (restricted global or local distribution, always small populations, or very rare habitat requirements) needed almost twice as many protected areas to reach the 60% target as plant species that are rare owing to lack of suitable management (species depending on grassland management, moderate forest disturbances, extensive traditional agriculture, or species potentially threatened by collecting). Temporal analysis of the establishment of protected areas suggested that grouping plant species according to the predominant cause of rarity accurately reflected the history of conservation decision making. Species found in very rare habitats have previously received special conservation attention; species dependent on traditional extensive agriculture have been largely ignored until recently. Legislative initiative and new nature-protection schemes (e.g., Natura 2000, network of protected areas in the European Union) have had a positive influence on all species groups. Consequently, the species groups needing similar action for their conservation are sensitive indicators of the effectiveness of protected-area networks. Different species groups, however, may not be uniformly conserved within protected areas, and all species groups should fulfill the target of 60% coverage within protected areas.     

Sustainable development frontiers and divides: Transnational actors and US/China greenhouse gas emissions

Perpetuation of the South-North divide over climate change threatens to undermine the sustainability of the planet's vulnerable ecosystems. The current focus of international attention is on the USA and the PRC since both countries are in a position to negate or clinch the global warming mitigation efforts of the rest of the world community and because the two governments are primarily responsible for the entrenched global impasse over greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement. This contribution illustrates how transnational non-state actors, specifically Chinese American transmigrants, can make a difference in surmounting the US-China divide over GHG emissions, even in a time of state stalemate. Specific opportunities to shape sustainable development outcomes are explored by reference to energy efficiency, renewable energy, transportation, GHG capture, and public education projects. The discussion shows that, by teaming up with the NGOs, universities, foundations and firms engaged in or contemplating involvement in GHG emission mitigation projects in China, Chinese Americans from many walks of life who can manoeuvre skilfully along the climate change frontier occupy a potentially decisive position in terms of supporting sustainable development.     

中国松嫩草原羊草植硅体对全球变暖和氮沉降模拟的响应研究

在松嫩草原应用红外线增温和人工施氮的方法对羊草群落模拟全球变暖和氮沉降,提取羊草中的植硅体,分析探讨植硅体的形态及数量变化规律.羊草中的植硅体可以划分为4个大类和12个亚类,以及较小的植硅体碎片,其中帽型植硅体含量高达70%.尖顶帽型和平顶帽型植硅体与刺帽型植硅体可能有不同的发育机制,并且尖型植硅体对施氮更为敏感;与对照相比,增温处理对羊草植硅体的发育有促进作用(长宽增加0.1～2.6μm),而施氮处理则有一定的抑制作用(长宽减小0.1～1.4μm),增温和施氮交叉作用,则施氮对羊草植硅体发育表现出的抑制作用明显减弱;施氮处理中出现其他处理中未见到的空心棒型(占棒型总量的46%),而且除棒型、帽型、尖型以外的植硅体含量增加到10%,从而推测,对于以羊草为优势植物的松嫩草原,施氮的影响可能要强于增温,如果两者同时作用,增温能在一定程度上缓解施氮的影响.实验中的羊草植硅体对模拟全球变化很敏感,说明植硅体对环境因子的改变很敏感,其作为古环境的代用指标应是可靠的.