陕西关中地区水文气候状况对全球变暖的响应问题探讨

利用1953－1999年陕西关中地区年平均气温、年降永量和同期中国年平均气温距平资料，分析对比关中地区近50年气温变化与周期中国气温变化、气温与降水之间的关系，对关中地区日趋严重的水资源退化问题进行了探讨，揭示了全球变化的背景下关中地区气候变化的区域性特点及其气候干暖化趋势。关中地区未来气候将更趋干暖化，生态环境将更加脆弱。建议在西部大开发当中，把生态环境建设放在首要位置。     

浅析全球变暖的成因与人类健康

论述了全球变暖是当前人类所面临的一个最为严重的环境问题。这种日趋恶化的环境的产生与人类的各种活动是息息相关的, 环境的恶化必将给人类的健康带来最为严重的后果。     

A Paradigm of International Environmental Law: The Case for Controlling the Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes

The production of large quantities of wastes globally has created a commercial activity involving the transfrontier shipments of hazardous wastes, intended to be managed at economically attractive waste-handling facilities located elsewhere. In fact, huge quantities of hazardous wastes apparently travel the world in search of “acceptable” waste management facilities. For instance, within the industrialized countries alone, millions of tonnes of potentially hazardous waste cross national frontiers each year on their way for recycling or to treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) because there is no local disposal capacity for these wastes, or because legal disposal or reuse in a foreign country may be more environmentally sound, or managing the wastes in the foreign country may be less expensive than at home. The cross-boundary traffic in hazardous wastes has lately been under close public scrutiny, however, resulting in the accession of several international agreements and laws to regulate such activities. This paper discusses and analyzes the most significant control measures and major agreements in this new commercial activity involving hazardous wastes. In particular, the discussion recognizes the difficulties with trying to implement the relevant international agreements among countries of vastly different socioeconomic backgrounds. Nonetheless, it is also noted that global environmental agreements will generally be a necessary component of ensuring adequate environmental protection for the world community—and thus a need for the careful implementation of such agreements and regulations.     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

The epistemic authority of solution-oriented global environmental assessments

The effectiveness and influence of solutions oriented global environmental assessments (SOAs) rests on their legitimacy. Based on the GEA literature this piece reviews the legitimacy of GEAs and discusses its implications, and challenges and for the legitimacy of SOAs. This article is part of a special issue on solution-oriented GEAs.     

Solution-oriented global environmental assessments: Opportunities and challenges

This article provides an introduction to the Special Issue dedicated to “Solution-oriented Global Environmental Assessments: Opportunities and Challenges”. In the follow-up to the Paris climate agreement and the adoption and early implementation of the global Sustainable Development Goals involving many synergies and trade-offs, the need to shift the focus from environmental problem analysis towards the exploration of specific solution options can be observed in international environmental governance debates. To remain policy-relevant, credible and legitimate, global environmental assessments (GEAs) must carefully adapt to a rapidly evolving governance landscape. This Special Issue sheds light on the potential utility and implications of increased solution-orientation of GEAs. It builds on the research project “The Future of Global Environmental Assessment Making” that was jointly initiated in 2013 by UN Environment and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change. The article collection includes research on the coevolution of GEAs and the increasingly solution-oriented governance context; conditions of success for contemporary GEAs; the treatment of divergent viewpoints, stakes and stakeholders in solution-oriented GEAs; knowledge aggregation; and the enhanced measurement of GEA effectiveness in the emerging governance landscape.     

The Effect of Local Biomass Projects on Energy Balance and GHG Emission: A Life Cycle Approach

Emerging attention has been given to the use of biomass in local areas for its contribution to reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating global warming. The objective of the present study is to develop a method that quantitatively assesses the effects of local biomass projects on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. A practical method based on a life cycle approach is proposed and applied to a case of bioethanol project in Miyako Islands of Japan. The project is aiming to produce bioethanol from molasses within the islands, and to replace the entire gasoline consumed in the islands to E3 fuel (i.e., a mixture of 3% ethanol and 97% gasoline by volume). The assessment using the developed method revealed that, first, the complete shift from gasoline to E3 fuel allows for decreases in fossil fuel consumption and GHG emission. Second, the performance of the project is improved by the integration of the ethanol plant and the sugar factory. Moreover, the assessment found that, in small-scale bioethanol projects, the contribution of capital goods to life cycle fuel consumption and GHG emission is not negligible.     

不同施肥措施对热带地区稻菜轮作体系土壤CH4和N2O排放的影响

研究稻菜轮作模式下土壤甲烷（CH₄）和氧化亚氮（N₂ O）排放对不同施肥措施的响应,对补充我国热带地区CH₄和N₂ O排放研究的不足具有重要的指导意义.在辣椒季设置4种施肥处理：磷钾肥（PK）、氮磷钾肥（NPK）、等氮条件下50%有机肥替代化肥（NPK+M）和100%有机肥替代（M）,水稻种植季未设置施肥处理,研究辣椒季不同施肥条件下CH₄和N₂ O的排放规律以及对早稻生长季水稻产量、CH₄和N₂ O排放的后续影响.采用密闭静态箱-气相色谱法测定稻菜轮作土壤CH₄和N₂ O,同时测定作物产量,并估算全球增温潜势（GWP）和温室气体排放强度（GHGI）.结果表明：①辣椒季和早稻季4种施肥处理下土壤CH₄的累积排放量分别为0.9~2.7 kg ·hm^-2和5.5~8.4 kg ·hm^-2,与NPK处理相比,辣椒季NPK+M和M处理CH₄累积排放量分别减少35.3%和7.6%;而早稻季NPK+M和M处理CH₄累积排放量均增加37.5%和55.1%,其中早稻季M处理达到显著水平.②辣椒季和早稻季4种施肥处理下N₂ O的累积排放量分别为0.5~3.0 kg ·hm^-2和0.3~0.5 kg ·hm^-2,相对NPK处理,辣椒季NPK+M和M处理降低33.7%和16.0%的N₂ O累积排放量,其中NPK+M处理达到显著差异,早稻季NPK+M处理N₂ O累积排放量降低23.5%,M处理却增加9.1%,但均未达到显著水平.③ 4种施肥处理下辣椒和早稻的产量分别为3055.6~37722.5 kg ·hm^-2和5850.9~6994.4 kg ·hm^-2,与NPK处理相比,NPK+M和M处理显著增加辣椒产量.各施肥处理GWP为508.0~1864.4 kg ·hm^-2,NPK+M和M处理相对NPK处理分别下降25.7%和5.7%,其中NPK+M处理达到显著差异.辣椒季各处理的GWP对总GWP的贡献率为69.2%~78.1%,N₂ O对总GWP的贡献率为77.3%~85.3%.辣椒季和早稻季GHGI分别为0.03~0.09 kg ·kg^-1和0.04~0.24 kg ·kg^-1,与NPK处理相比,辣椒季M和NPK+M处理使GHGI显著下降71.5%和54.7%,早稻季NPK+M和M处理GHGI值分别下降44.0%和20.8%,其中NPK+M处理达到显著差异.综合作物产量及温室气体减排效果考虑,化肥和有机肥配施（NPK+M）可推荐为海南稻菜轮作模式下一种最优的减排稳产的施肥措施.     

Bringing the Heat Home: Television Spots about Local Impacts Reduce Global Warming Denialism

ABSTRACT

Efforts to educate the general public about global warming and the potential policy solutions that could mitigate its effects have relied on the diffusion of facts. But, cognitive scientists have documented that psychologically distant events like global warming elicit less concern and motivation to act relative to immediate, proximal and certain events. This paper documents a quasi-experiment that tested the effect on attitudes of a television campaign that emphasized the temporally, geographically and socially proximal impacts of global warming on the ecosystems and business activity of a historically conservative area of the United States. The campaign aired on one cable provider. Subscribers of that and of competing providers in the same zip-codes were polled after the campaign. Respondents exposed to the campaign were more likely to believe that global warming is happening, to accept the scientific consensus, to be more concerned about impacts and more supportive of policy solutions.     

解决全球变暖问题,发达国家与发展中国家的分歧

本文论述了全球变暖对经济发展的影响。论述了在联合国气候变化峰会上,发达国家与发展中国家发生严重分歧。说明了我国坚持共同但有区别的责任原则,实现互利共赢,促进共同发展。会议无果而终。