基于模糊粗糙集的化工园区多米诺事故救援时机分析

本文旨在通过粗糙集约简手段研究化工园区多米诺事故救援时机问题。首先将初始事故等级、间距系数、环境等级、临近企业脆弱性、初始事故发生时间等5个因素作为多米诺事故发生条件,应用Kmeans聚类方法实现模糊粗糙集数据离散化,之后应用属性约简及属性值约简方法分析案例信息,最后提取规则并从以上5个因素角度确定火灾多米诺事故的救援最佳时机,结果表明救援规则简洁明了,可执行性较高。     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

基于邻接关系的土地利用变化空间关联规则研究

空间关联规则可在海量空间数据中挖掘出空间对象之间相互作用、空间依赖、因果或共生的模式。将空间关联规则方法引入土地利用变化时空特征分析中,以浙江省桐庐县2004~2009年的两种典型地类变化(城镇用地的转入、耕地的转出)为例,结合GIS的空间统计和空间分析功能,首先通过土地利用转移矩阵分析土地利用面积变化的整体情况,再采用经典Apriori算法挖掘这两种典型地类变化与其周边邻接的地类变化间的关联性规律。研究表明:(1)桐庐县土地利用呈现明显的非农化趋势,这主要归因于城镇化进程以及其作为特色发展的生态建设;(2)城镇用地的发展主要依靠耕地和农村居民点的转型,表现为集中连片的扩展方式,且城镇用地与交通水利建设用地的发展具有明显的共生现象;(3)耕地的同种转变类型在空间上呈现连片集聚分布,且耕地发展易受相邻地类的驱动或制约,尤其是林地和农村居民点。空间关联规则挖掘能够定量分析在空间邻接的情况下地类间的转变倾向以及变化的关联规律,为土地利用变化时空分析提供有用信息。     

Comments on optimizing the selection of the number of groups in a classification tree

In a recent issue of this journal Guidi et al. (2009) proposed a Random Simulation Test (RST) to assist with the determination of the optimal number of clusters to be extracted from a hierarchical classification tree. This short note illustrates the potential influence that the richness of a simulated new site has on the determination of the optimal level to cut the dendrogram. This is discussed in the context of the need for clear objectives and criteria against which a classification tree can be evaluated. A simple modification of the RST is proposed that the simulated new site of the matrix has an appropriate number of positive entries that lies within the range of the observed matrix. The impact of this modification is then evaluated using an ecological community site-by-species matrix.     

煤矿设计中环境保护篇章编制应注意的问题

依据建设项目环境保护设计规定中对各设计阶段提出的环境保护要求，结合目前矿区各阶段设计文件中涉及的环境保护篇章，分析了煤矿环境保护篇章编制过程中存在的问题，并提出相应的改进措施。     

Subpopulation Triage: How to Allocate Conservation Effort among Populations

Abstract:  Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes ( Vulpes macrotis mutica ). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species.     

湿热处理餐厨废弃物不饱和脂肪酸

为了研究湿热水解技术对餐厨废弃物中脂类物质的影响,促进餐厨废弃物的资源化处理利用,通过实验研究,分析了餐厨废弃物固相中油酸、亚油酸、α-亚麻酸和花生四烯酸4种不饱和脂肪酸在90～140℃湿热条件下处理随时间的变化规律。结果表明：实验所取餐厨废弃物经湿热处理后固相中油酸和亚油酸的含量相对较高,约为30％,花生四烯酸的含量较低,约为0．3％,随着加热时间延长,亚油酸在湿热环境下发生化学分解,其含量不断降低,而花生四烯酸的含量显著增加。当加热温度为100～120℃,加热时间为30-60min时,餐厨废弃物脂类含量比较稳定,作为适宜的湿热处理条件。值得注意的是,湿热处理后的餐厨废弃物中花生四烯酸的含量只约为0．3％,不能满足饲料标准中2％的要求。     

基于Ti/SnO2阳极氧化法的典型染料废水电化学氧化规律

采用Ti／SnO2电极间接阳极氧化法处理直接深棕M和活性艳蓝KNR模拟染料废水,研究电解质种类、pH、电压、NaCl投加量及电解时间对其降解效果的影响;在最佳组合条件下,通过分析uV—Vis光谱以及降解过程中氮元素的存在形式,研究上述2种染料的降解规律。结果表明,在pH为3,电压20V,NaCl投加量为2．5g／L的条件下,电解30min后,直接深棕M和活性艳蓝KNR的脱色率分别达到80％和95％,60min后直接深棕M的COD去除率可达75％,活性艳蓝KNR的COD去除率达到90％;电解60min后,直接深棕M的偶氮双键完全破坏,萘环和苯环结构被逐步降解,活性艳蓝KNR溶液电解2min,其分子结构中的蒽醌共轭体系被破坏,随反应的进行,蒽醌结构逐渐被破坏,染料逐步降解。     

考虑礼让规则与出口切分的瓶颈处行人动力学规律研究*

为研究礼让规则和出口切分对瓶颈处行人微观行为及通行效率的影响,充分调研并设计行人动力学规律实验,使用图像识别技术从采集的实验视频中获取行人运动轨迹与坐标数据。研究表明:行人平均速度与视野内行人平均最近距离呈正相关、与视野内平均人数、相对角度呈负相关;同向从众、反向避让的行人行为特征导致行人在通过瓶颈时会出现明显分层现象,平均层间距150 mm。考虑礼让规则时,通行效率与初始人员数量呈负相关,但行人反应时间间隔的不确定性导致瓶颈整体通行效率下降,适当瓶颈宽度可避免“成拱”现象发生并提高瓶颈空间利用率,进而提高通行效率;非拥挤状态下竞争规则比礼让规则的通行效率更高;将宽2 m的瓶颈划分多个出口瓶颈整体通行效率变化不大,但单个出口通行效率明显提高,且面对多出口选择时行人表现出右侧出口选择倾向性。