能源强度与中国制造业产业结构优化实证

制造业的能源消耗和产业结构优化关系一直是学术界研究的焦点之一。该文利用Geweke因果检验方法,并采用1993—2013年20年间的数据,对中国制造业产业结构优化与制造业能源利用效率之间的关系进行统计和分析。首先,对中国制造业产业结构优化的情况进行描述性分析,将产业结构优化划分成产业结构合理化和高级化两个方面,研究发现中国制造业产业结构优化中高级化都呈现良好的趋势,但制造业产业结构合理化却呈现出"倒U"变化趋势,这与国家的宏观政策具有一定相关性。其次,计算制造业的能源强度,并利用LMD方法对能源强度进行分解,分解为结构效应和技术效应两个方面,研究发现中国制造业能源强度变化受到技术效应影响波及时间较长,结构效应变化造成短期影响较大。最后,利用Gewke因果检验的方法对能源强度和制造业产业结构优化之间的长期因果关系、即时因果关系及整体因果关系进行统计检验,研究发现:中国制造业产业结构优化与能源消耗之间形成两条不同反馈循环,一条为制造业产业结构合理化、结构效应及技术效应之间的短期反馈循环,另一条为产业结构优化内部和技术效应之间的长期反馈循环,这两条循环相互促进和影响,最终形成闭合横"8"字均衡循环。据此,研究给出相应的政策和建议:一是制造业产业结构优化调整是实现能源的"开源节流"的有效手段;二是制定差异化的能源政策和产业结构调整政策是实现"减少能源压力、保证经济发展"双赢局面的重要保障和前提。     

Immigration and electricity consumption: The case of Northern Cyprus

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the impact of immigration and economic growth on electricity consumption in the case of North Cyprus using annual data from 1977 to 2007. The results suggest that both economic growth and immigration are in a long-run equilibrium relationship with electricity consumption.     

Disaggregated energy consumption,environment, and economic growth nexus of emerging South and East Asian Countries: An ARDL approach

This study examines the nexus between disaggregated energy consumption (EC), CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in emerging South and East Asian countries over the period of 1994 to 2019. The long-run equilibrium relationship is determined by using the “Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model” and the “Generalized least square (GLS) technique.” The panel causality test developed by “Dumitrescu and Hurlin, 2012” determines the direction of causation between variables. Disaggregated EC and CO₂ emissions positively affect economic growth in the research. The PMG estimate also validates the GLS findings, which produce the same results as the PMG estimation. To check the robustness, we also use FMOLS and DOLS estimators. The results confirm the feedback hypothesis for South and East Asian nations regarding energy uses, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. In contrast, there is unidirectional causality between industrial development and economic growth. These findings will help governments in South and East Asia craft effective energy policy regulations for their financial institutions.     

焦化废水A~2/O处理过程中的组成和毒性变化规律

焦化废水中含有大量毒性物质,具有较强的生物毒性。本文以实验室构建的A2/O焦化废水处理系统为研究对象,考察废水处理过程化学成分和急性毒性的变化。采用紫外扫描和三维荧光光谱分析考察了处理系统各阶段出水的物质组分,并采用固相萃取和超滤膜分离等手段对水样各组分的发光细菌急性毒性进行研究。结果表明,伴随着芳香族物质等毒物的去除,焦化废水的急性生物毒性在该处理系统中被逐步削减,最终出水的毒性当量仅为原水的28%;不同组分的生物毒性测试结果显示,废水水样的强极性和中等极性有机组分贡献了绝大部分的毒性当量,而这些物质主要在缺氧段及好氧段被削减;结合三维荧光光谱的分析结果,可推断焦化废水中一类很难在A2/O处理系统中被完全去除的芳香族蛋白质类似物(Ⅱ区)很可能具有较强的生物毒性,是构成出水毒性的主要物质。     

南京市房地产投资与GDP关系研究

以Eviews5.0为平台,运用计量经济模型对南京市GDP增长与房地产投资之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,在短期内两者之间仅存在单向的因果关系,即南京市GDP增长是拉动房地产投资增长的原因,而房地产投资增长对GDP增长的影响并不显著;GDP增长波动对房地产波动具有即时的正影响。     

土壤地下水环境损害因果关系判定方法及应用

因果关系判定是环境损害鉴定评估的关键环节. 为了应对我国日益增加的土壤、地下水环境损害事件和诉讼需求,开展土壤与地下水环境损害因果关系判定技术方法研究十分必要. 环境损害因果关系判定主要是通过构建污染源到受体的途径,来确定污染源与损害之间的关联性. 基于该原则,结合土壤地下水调查评估实践,构建了土壤和地下水环境损害鉴定评估过程中因果关系判定的技术框架,包括源和受体中污染物的同源性分析、污染物在污染源与受体之间传输载体和介质的识别、传输污染物的载体的运动方向和污染物浓度梯度方向的确定、污染物在源和受体之间迁移途径的连续性和完整性分析4个步骤. 同源性利用指纹图谱、多元统计、同位素等方法进行分析,载体和介质基于地质和水文地质调查、污染调查等手段识别,载体和污染物迁移方向判断以及迁移途径连续性和完整性分析通过空间模拟等技术实现. 将所构建的技术框架和方法在某企业与下游池塘污染事件案例中进行应用,指纹图谱分析结果显示,污染源(企业)和受损资源(池塘水体)中污染物主要为Zn,具有同源性;通过地质和水文地质调查识别出污染物传输的载体和介质为土壤和地下水;运用取样分析和空间模拟方法判断载体的运动方向为污染源向载体的方向,但地下水Zn污染羽在该方向上不连续;进一步结合影像分析、地质条件分析、人员访谈等,证实迁移途径不连续的原因为存在优势通道,最终判定污染源(企业)与下游池塘污染之间确实存在因果关系. 案例应用也证实了该研究所提出的技术框架的合理性与可行性.      

环境污染犯罪双层次因果关系理论的构建

通过对案例的梳理发现环境污染犯罪因果关系是认定犯罪的肯綮之处。梳理各类因果关系学说理论,对疫学因果关系、间接反证法、因果关系的推定理论等学说进行对比研究,结果表明应借鉴疫学上因果关系进行归因性条件基础判断。因果关系的本质不仅是一种事实性归因判断,更是一种规范性客观归责判断,因此可以借助客观归责理论作为规范性判断标准,应坚持刑法的必要性、辅助性和最后手段性的原则,允许一定的抗辩型理由。     

城镇化、居民生活能源消费与生活碳排放之间关系的实证研究

利用中国1995年－2012年居民生活能源消费数据,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对城镇化、居民生活能源消费与碳排放之间关系进行了实证研究,结果发现：城镇化、居民生活能源消费与碳排放存在长期均衡关系;城镇化程度的提高会降低CO2排放;生活能源消费的增加是CO2排放提高的重要原因。居民生活能源消费与CO2排放之间存在着双向格兰杰因果关系。提出稳步推进新型城镇化进程、合理进行生活能源消费、调控城乡居民生活能源消费等建议。     

A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: Is it possible to apply a robustness framework?

Attribution studies investigate the causes of recent global warming. For a few decades the scientific community generally adopted dynamical models – the so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) – for such an investigation. These models show the essential role of anthropogenic forcings in driving the temperature behaviour of the last half century. In the last period even other (data-driven) methodological approaches were adopted for attribution studies. This allows the scientific community to compare the results coming from these different approaches and to possibly increase their robustness. For such a purpose, the paper explores the possibility of applying a robustness framework, so far used only in the case of multi-model GCM ensembles, to a strategy including models from different methodological orientations, assessing such an application especially in the light of the independence issue.     

Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy

This paper empirically examines the impact of oil price volatility on key macroeconomic indicators of Thailand. Following Andersen et al. [2004. Analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts. International Economic Review 45(4), 1079–1110], quarterly oil price volatility is measured by using the realized volatility (RV). The impact of the oil price volatility is investigated using the vector auto-regression (VAR) system. The Granger causality test, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition show that oil price volatility has significant impact on macroeconomic indicators, such as unemployment and investment, over the period from 1993Q1 to 2006Q4. Perron's [1997. Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of Econometrics 80(2), 355–385] test identifies structural breaks in all the concerned variables during the time of the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998). A VAR for the post-crisis period shows that the impact of oil price volatility is transmitted to budget deficit. The floating exchange rate regime introduced after the crisis may be the key contributor to this new channel of impact.