MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES1

The Great Lakes Basin Commission has initiated a Framework Study to assess the present and projected water- and related land-resource problems and demands in the Great Lakes Basin. Poorly defined objectives; incomplete and inconsistent data arrays; unknown air, biota, water, and sediment interactions; and multiple planning considerations for interconnected, large lake systems hinder objective planning. To incorporate mathematical modeling as a planning tool for the Great Lakes, a two-phase program, comprising a feasibility and design study followed by contracted and in-house modeling, data assembly, and plan development, has been initiated. The models will be used to identify sensitivities of the lakes to planning and management alternatives, insufficiencies in the data base, and inadequately understood ecosystem interactions. For the first time objective testing of resource-utilization plans to identify potential conflicts will provide a rational and cost-effective approach to Great Lakes management. Because disciplines will be interrelated, the long-term effects of planning alternatives and their impacts on neighboring lakes and states can be evaluated. Testing of the consequences of environmental accidents and increased pollution levels can be evaluated, and risks to the resource determined. Examples are cited to demonstrate the use of such planning tools.     

Diversity Relationships among Taxonomic Groups in Recovering and Restored Forests

Abstract:  Our objective was to reexamine the definition and use of surrogates in biodiversity studies of disturbed ecological communities. To this end, we examined diversity and community structure in recovering (pollution damaged) and restored (via liming, fertilizing, seeding, and planting) forests in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence zone near Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. The relationships among taxonomic groups were determined using correlations between Shannon diversity and species richness. We used correspondence analysis to quantify the contribution of taxonomic groups to diversity and community structure. We detected useful surrogates in the naturally recovering forests but not in restored forests. In the former, vascular plant diversity was significantly correlated with nonvascular plant diversity and reflected community structure in the total plant community. Our results suggest that it may be important to restore and conserve diversity relationships rather than simply diversity levels because the relationships may be better indicators of ecosystem health or function.     

Avian Community Response to Lowland Tropical Rainforest Isolation: 40 Years of Change at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica

Abstract:  Since 1960, most of the forest surrounding the La Selva Biological Station, an intensively studied tropical research facility in Costa Rica, has been converted to agricultural uses. We used quantitative censuses and analysis of previously published categorical abundances to assess changes in the bird community, and we evaluated potential causes of species-specific changes by assessing their association with habitat, diet, participation in mixed-species flocks, and nest type. Approximately the same percentage of species increased as decreased in abundance from 1960 to 1999 (10–20% of all species, depending on method of assessment). Diet was the single most important trait associated with declining species. At least 50% of the species that declined have insectivorous diets. Use of forest habitat and participation in mixed-species flocks were also significant factors associated with declines, but nest type was unrelated to change in abundance. The species that increased in abundance tended to occur in open habitats and have omnivorous diets. These results reinforce the importance of several population risk factors associated with tropical understory insectivory and mixed-species flocking: patchy spatial distribution, low population density, large home range, and dietary specialization. La Selva's protected area (1611 ha), despite a forested connection on one boundary with a higher elevation national park, is apparently too small to maintain at least one major guild (understory insectivores). This first quantitative assessment of bird community change at La Selva highlights the need to intensify study of the mechanisms and consequences of biological diversity change in tropical forest fragments.     

Participatory tools for coastal zone management: Use of stakeholder analysis and social mapping in Australia

This paper presents research currently being conducted in Central Queensland, Australia to understand conflicts between coastal zone resource users and the associated sociocultural and political issues surrounding coastal zone management. Conflict occurs between stakeholders in the coastal zone over values, conservation and development trade-offs, access, and resource use rights. Decisions are currently made within a multi-stakeholder framework where there is limited understanding among stakeholders of each groups values and aspirations, and few, mechanisms for negotiation, or to ensure transparency of decisions and feedback on consultation. This paper reports on the contribution of stakeholder analysis and social mapping to conflict management and findings from their application. As it is applied here, stakeholder analysis and social mapping have been successful participatory tools used to document and feed back the values, interests, attitudes and aspirations of stakeholders. Understanding stakeholder conflict is essential in progressing a whole catchment approach to decision-making that secures the cooperation of a diverse range of social groups.     

Great Lakes monitoring results--comparison of probability based and deterministic sampling grids

The Great Lakes may be viewed as a coastal environment, affected by the same meteorological and physical forces as the coastal ocean. The U.S. EPA, Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO) has monitored the open waters of the lakes, annually, since 1983. As part of the U.S. EPA Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), a pilot study was performed in Lake Michigan to compare the existing GLNPO deterministic sampling grid with the EMAP probabilistic grid. Results of chemical analyses of trophic status indicators (total phosphorus and chlorophyll a) as well as nutrients and conventional limnological measurements, from spring and summer surveys in 1992 indicate little difference between the grids in the offshore region of the lake. The few statistically significant differences may be due to station distribution throughout the lake, or simple chance. This might be expected due to the well mixed nature of the open waters of Lake Michigan. The detection of a long-term trend for total phosphorus in Lake Michigan benefits from an annual program: viewing cumulative frequency distributions based on a four year EMAP interval does not convey information on the decrease in phosphorus in the lake. If the EMAP sampling grid were to be used in the Great Lakes, pilots in each of the lakes would be necessary for utilization of the existing long-term record as a basis for trend detection.     

津巴布韦大岩墙Darwendale次岩浆房铂族元素成矿分布和成矿机制探讨

大岩墙超铁镁质岩层上部主要有三个硫化物带,铂族元素(PGE)主要分布在这些矿带中,尤其富集在硫化物带的底部。下部两个矿带属星散硫化物成矿,二者距离较远;上部矿带铂族元素品位较高,分布在十分薄的岩层中。目前对层状硫化物矿床形成的模式尚未进行足够的研究。初步认为下部两个矿带是硫化物从硅酸盐岩浆中经连续的结晶分凝作用形成;上部矿带是由于岩浆房底部比较原始的岩浆与顶部伴生浆液混合形成。     

县级环境监测站建设的几点思考

县级环境监测站是环境保护工作中三支生力军之一，但其一直被机构残缺、经费紧张、管理体制不配套、职能未被确认、服务能力差等问题所困绕，本文对这些问题的成因进行了分析，并简要提出了解决的措施和对策。     

江苏省高速公路站区光伏能源综合利用研究

基于江苏省高速公路沿线服务区、收费站、办公楼屋面面积以及服务区停车场面积统计数据,估算了可利用屋面面积和进行光伏车棚改造的服务区停车场面积。测算了光伏屋面、光伏车棚的装机规模和发电量,结合高速公路用电情况分析了运行方式。经测算:江苏省高速公路服务区和收费站屋面可安装光伏发电总装机容量为32 MW,首年发电量为3200万kWh,全省高速公路光伏屋面25年发电总量约7.3亿kWh;江苏省高速公路光伏车棚可安装光伏发电装机容量约11 MW,25年发电总量约2.5亿kWh;高速公路站区光伏系统所发电量均小于其昼间用电量,站区光伏发电能够以“自发自用”的模式运行。     

中波广播电台的电磁辐射环境影响分析

文章引入电磁辐射源固有危险性评价的指数法评判模型,进行了中波广播电台的固有危险性评价。探讨了中波天线周围电场强度的理论计算、分布规律以及电磁污染可能范围,并进行了现场监测。结果表明:中波广播电台天线电场强度值,在近距离区域随距离的增加而迅速衰减,当距离进一步增大时,场强值继续衰减,但衰减速度越来越缓慢;磁场强度随距离的增加而降低,但相对与电场强度衰减的幅度较慢。当中波广播电台功率比较低时,其电场强度和磁场强度在20 m以外均能符合国家标准限值规定,对周围环境影响较小。     

“挡风抑尘墙”技术研究及其应用

内蒙古天晧水泥有限公司将＂挡风抑尘墙＂技术成功应用在石灰石预均化堆场和煤场,对消减石灰石预均化堆场和煤场风力,抑制石灰石预均化堆场和煤场扬尘起到了很好的作用,解决了大型堆场扬尘治理的一个技术难题。现就＂挡风抑尘墙＂的工作机理、结构特点及其抑尘效果等进行分析介绍,以促进该技术的推广和应用。