Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Time-series sampling of Ra and Ra at the inlet to Great South Bay (New York): a strategy for characterizing the dominant terms in the Ra budget of the bay

Ra isotopes are a powerful tool for quantifying the flux of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into the sea. Previous studies of ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra mass balances in coastal embayments have shown that the Ra balance is dominated by supply via SGD, exchange with the open ocean and radioactive decay. The current study shows that a single time series over a tidal cycle at the principal inlet to Great South Bay (NY, US) is sufficient to determine the net flux of Ra across the inlet, and also can be used to estimate the decay of short-lived Ra in the bay. Estimates of the net Ra flux obtained from a single tidal time-series by using three different approaches agree with those determined from a more time-consuming survey of Ra within the bay, and may represent a first step of estimating SGD in bays and coastal lagoons.     

南京台数字水准仪往返观测误差分析

2006年初,省局给台站更换了DiNi12数字化水准仪,通过近几个月观测,观测数据测线观测数据上午往测观测高差偏大,下午返测观测高差偏小的现象,经分析认为:造成这种现象的主要原因与仪器受温度、太阳光照射影响有关.     

通信基站电磁辐射信访的情况分析和处理对策——以深圳市为例

根据深圳市近年来通信基站电磁辐射信访投诉的情况,结合马斯洛需求层次理论对通信基站信访投诉情况进行分析,将通信基站信访投诉抱怨等级划分为3类。再引入世界卫生组织关于电磁场风险沟通的建议和对电磁辐射风险沟通4要素的研究讨论,为3类通信基站信访投诉提供科学有效的处理对策。     

Environmental analysis of groundwater in Mecosta County, Michigan

Groundwater withdrawal has major economic, social, and environmental implications. In Michigan, recent legislative activity has begun to address the issue of groundwater sustainability. However, more hydrologic data are needed to help inform policy and legislation. A study was conducted in Mecosta County, Michigan to: (1) determine if a relationship could be established between land use/land cover and groundwater quality; and (2) develop a conceptual model for the shallow groundwater system of the study region. In general, groundwater quality was good, with below detection levels of E. coli, low total bacterial counts, and relatively low nutrient concentrations. No statistically significant associations were found between the bacterial numbers and either land use or the physical/chemical attributes measured, which may be because the scale of our spatial analysis was too coarse to detect patterns. Finer-scale, localized processes may have a greater influence on microorganism growth and abundance than coarser-scale, regional processes in this area. Our groundwater analysis suggested that shallow groundwater flow paths are generally consistent with regional surface water flow networks, and that shallow groundwater levels in most of the region have fluctuated within 1–2 m over the past 30 years, with no obvious increasing or decreasing trend.     

Effect of blue tit song syntax on great tit territorial responsiveness – an experimental test of the character shift hypothesis

A previous study of geographic variation in blue tit (Parus caeruleus) song structure showed that changes in blue tit song syntax (i.e. presence/absence of a trill) are correlated with the breeding density of a close competitor, the great tit (P. major), and are not correlated with other environmental factors such as vegetation structure or blue tit breeding density. We tested the hypothesis that blue tit trilled song represents a character shift that evolved because it reduced territorial interactions with more dominant great tits. We conducted five sets of playback trials in three study populations (mainland southern France, Corsica and Denmark) presenting male great tits with blue tit trilled and untrilled songs and great tit songs. We found that great tits respond equally strongly to both blue tit untrilled songs and to great tit songs, but show a significantly weaker response to blue tit trilled songs. These findings are the first experimental evidence that interspecific competition may play an important role in macrogeographic variation of bird song. Received: 10 October 1999 / Received in revised form: 2 April 2000 / Accepted: 15 April 2000     

Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) in Decline: High Mortality of Three Populations in the Northern Baltic Sea

The development of three pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) populations in the northern Baltic Sea was monitored using standardized multimesh gillnets in 1995–2009. Declining trends in the abundances of pikeperch over 40 cm total length, low numbers of individuals older than 6 years, and high mortality rates were observed in all three populations. In the site with the largest commercial catches per unit area and a rapidly increased colony of great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis Blumenbach 1798), also the abundance of pikeperch below 40 cm total length and year-class strength showed declining trends. The adverse population level changes did not correlate with changes in water quality or eutrophication status. Together, the results suggest that in all study sites fisheries are harvesting a large proportion of the pikeperch soon after or even before reaching the maturity, and that predation from great cormorants may increase mortality of juveniles. Pikeperch is important not only for fisheries but also for ecosystem functioning, and our results point at the need for further management measures to ensure viable populations in the areas studied.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0429-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

上海市轨道交通与地面交通换乘场站局地空气污染调查与评价

对上海市轨道交通与地面交通换乘场站局地环境空气质量进行了调查,结果表明,万体馆站空气污染较重,大气污染达到警戒水平,PM10及NO2超标频率及超标量较高。中山公园监测点PM10及CO超标较多。对照点张江高科点及静安点的环境空气质量相对较好,上海大气质量指数能够达到大气环境质量标准,污染物单因子超标轻微。在地面交通与轨道交通的换乘场站,集聚的机动车所排放的尾气,是造成该地区环境空气质量恶化的重要原因之一。     

Effects of reduced water quality on coral reefs in and out of no‐take marine reserves

Near‐shore marine environments are increasingly subjected to reduced water quality, and their ability to withstand it is critical to their persistence. The potential role marine reserves may play in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality has received little attention. We investigated the spatial and temporal variability in live coral and macro‐algal cover and water quality during moderate and major flooding events of the Fitzroy River within the Keppel Bay region of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from 2007 to 2013. We used 7 years of remote sensing data on water quality and data from long‐term monitoring of coral reefs to quantify exposure of coral reefs to flood plumes. We used a distance linear model to partition the contribution of abiotic and biotic factors, including zoning, as drivers of the observed changes in coral and macro‐algae cover. Moderate flood plumes from 2007 to 2009 did not affect coral cover on reefs in the Keppel Islands, suggesting the reef has intrinsic resistance against short‐term exposure to reduced water quality. However, from 2009 to 2013, live coral cover declined by ～50% following several weeks of exposure to turbid, low salinity water from major flood plume events in 2011 and subsequent moderate events in 2012 and 2013. Although the flooding events in 2012 and 2013 were smaller than the flooding events between 2007 to 2009, the ability of the reefs to withstand these moderate floods was lost, as evidenced by a ～20% decline in coral cover between 2011 to 2013. Although zoning (no‐take reserve or fished) was identified a significant driver of coral cover, we recorded consistently lower coral cover on reserve reefs than on fished reefs throughout the study period and significantly lower cover in 2011. Our findings suggest that even reefs with an inherent resistance to reduced water quality are not able to withstand repeated disturbance events. The limitations of reserves in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality on near‐shore coral reefs underscores the importance of integrated management approaches that combine effective land‐based management with networks of no‐take reserves.     

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate‐change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate‐change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4‐month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long‐term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing‐season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario‐impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate‐change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.