Integrated Measures of Anthropogenic Stress in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

Integrated, quantitative expressions of anthropogenic stress over large geographic regions can be valuable tools in environmental research and management. Despite the fundamental appeal of a regional approach, development of regional stress measures remains one of the most important current challenges in environmental science. Using publicly available, pre-existing spatial datasets, we developed a geographic information system database of 86 variables related to five classes of anthropogenic stress in the U.S. Great Lakes basin: agriculture, atmospheric deposition, human population, land cover, and point source pollution. The original variables were quantified by a variety of data types over a broad range of spatial and classification resolutions. We summarized the original data for 762 watershed-based units that comprise the U.S. portion of the basin and then used principal components analysis to develop overall stress measures within each stress category. We developed a cumulative stress index by combining the first principal component from each of the five stress categories. Maps of the stress measures illustrate strong spatial patterns across the basin, with the greatest amount of stress occurring on the western shore of Lake Michigan, southwest Lake Erie, and southeastern Lake Ontario. We found strong relationships between the stress measures and characteristics of bird communities, fish communities, and water chemistry measurements from the coastal region. The stress measures are taken to represent the major threats to coastal ecosystems in the U.S. Great Lakes. Such regional-scale efforts are critical for understanding relationships between human disturbance and ecosystem response, and can be used to guide environmental decision-making at both regional and local scales.     

四川盆地西北部“92.1.22”电网特大污闪的成因及指标

四川盆地酉北部“９２·１·２２”电网特大污闪是全国电力史上最严重的污问事故,经济损失很大．它的成因：主要是大气被严重污染,空中污物多,气象条件利于污物在电网瓷瓶上大量积累,为污问的发生奠定了基础,污闪发生期内,气象条件利于形成引发闪污的闪雾的形成和持续;其次是电网的防污问能力差．其指标有：大气污染指标;利于污物在电网上大量积累的气象指标,与污问有关的气象要素历史背景指标;引发污问的污问雾的形成指标,污问将发生指标．     

宿迁城北构造地貌特征及其成因分析

京杭大运河在宿迁附近走向发生东西方向的拐折,研究认为系与该区存在近东西向断裂有关。文中应用人工地震和地质钻孔资料详细论述了这一地区的地貌特征,并对发生拐折的成因作了分析。     

The role of agency goals and local context in Great Lakes water resources public involvement programs

As complex social phenomena, public involvement processes are influenced by contextual factors. This study examined agency goals for public involvement and assessed the importance of local context in remedial action planning, a community-based water resources program aimed at the cleanup of the 42 most polluted locations in the Great Lakes Basin. Agency goals for public involvement in remedial action plans (RAPs) were agency-oriented and focused on public acceptance of the plan, support for implementation, and positive agency-public relations. Corresponding to these goals, citizen advisory committees were created in 75% of the RAP sites as a primary means for public input into the planning process. Factors that influenced the implementation of public involvement programs in remedial action planning included public orientation toward the remediation issue, local economic conditions, the interaction of diverse interests in the process, agency and process credibility, experience of local leadership, and jurisdictional complexity. A formative assessment of “community readiness” appeared critical to appropriate public involvement program design. Careful program design may also include citizen education and training components, thoughtful management of ongoing agency-public relations and conflict among disparate interests in the process, overcoming logistical difficulties that threaten program continuity, using local expertise and communication channels, and circumventing interjurisdictional complexities.     

滑坡灾害监测与预测时序分析

本文提出了一种边坡滑坡时序建模预测分析方法,以AR模型为例,探讨了时序建模及其预报的基本思想,最后用AR模型对清江电站进口边坡406阻滑键监测数据建模及预报,取得了一定的成果.     

Bacterial water quality: Springs and streams in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Water samples from streams and springs in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park were analyzed for fecal coliform, fecal streptococcus, and total coliform bacteria. Levels of bacteria were found to be highly variable but related to elevation, time of year, type of water source, and water level of the streams. Visitors did not seem to be major contributors to bacterial contamination. Levels of fecal coliform and total coliform in most water samples were unsuitable for drinking without treatment. Tennessee state standards for body contact recreation (swimming and wading) were exceeded in a few samples but none from streams suitable for swimming. As a result of these findings, park managers increased efforts to inform visitors of the need to treat drinking water and removed improvements at backcountry springs which tended to give the springs the image of safe, maintained water sources.     

Agricultural area impacts within a natural area: Cades cove,a case history

Agricultural management in Cades Cove, an historic district in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, has affected natural resources both within the district and in the adjoining natural areas. Aquatic impacts of haying and cattle grazing included increases in water temperatures, turbidity, nutrient loading, and bacterial counts and decreases in benthic macroinvertebrate density and fish biomass. Wildlife populations, including groundhogs, wild turkeys, and white-tailed deer, have increased in the open fields and around the periphery of the historic district. Intensive deer foraging has removed deciduous seedlings and saplings from woodlots, lowering species diversity and favoring coniferous reproduction. Cades Cove has limestone habitats unique in the park, and both deer browse and cattle grazing may have disturbed populations of rare plant species. Effects on water quality are detectable at a campground 15 stream km from the agricultural area, and the effects of deer foraging extend about 1 km beyond the open fields.Since historic landscape preservation is presently a goal of the park, managing for open vistas in Cades Cove will require some sort of continuing disturbance. Conversion of cattle pastures to hayfields would reduce aquatic impacts but the deer herd might increase as a result of reduced competition for forage. Retarding old field succession would increase populations of native plant species dependent on sunlight, but would require government-funded mowing. Other options are discussed. Completely eliminating the effects of the historic district on adjoining areas may be impossible, at least under present economic constraints.     

WATER FOR ENERGY: AN APPROACH TO COMPREHENSIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The effects of energy development on the water resources of the Colorado River and Great Basin regions is expected to be substantial. Complex physical, economic and institutional interactions may be expected. Most research on these impacts appears single purpose, fragmented, uncoordinated, and often inaccessible to potential users - particularly those with responsibility for energy/water policy and program decisions. A comprehensive, integrative framework for assessing alternative water allocation decisions is outlined, taking a heuristic decision making model for evaluating impacts on maximization of gross (or net) regional product, and regional social welfare, and for assessing the region's contribution to national objectives. The suggested model provides a structure for application and integration of data of various kinds to a range of situations arising from possible impacts from energy proposals. The focus is on water and energy relationships but the model may provide a framework for comprehensive analysis of a variety of environmental actions and resulting system perturbations and effects.     

LAKE SUPERIOR REGULATION EFFECTS

ABSTRACT: The outflows of Lake Superior through the St. Marys River have been modified from natural conditions, initially by the construction of engineering works, such as bridges, and later by the construction of control works and the regulation of the lake. For all practical purposes, the period from 1860 to 1887 represents the natural river conditions. During the period 1888-1900 the regimen was modified by the construction of the International Railroad Bridge and the Chandler-Dunbar Power Canal. In 1901 construction began on the compensating works. Following the completion of the compensating works in August 1921, the Lake Superior outflows were regulated in accordance with the Orders of Approval, 26 and 27 May 1914. A hydrologic response model was developed to simulate the natural Lake Superior regime. The model was run for the 1860–1975 period to simulate natural Lake Superior levels and outflows. The simulated levels were compared with the recorded levels to determine the effect of regulation. It was found that regulation has resulted in a rise in Lake Superior water levels. The simulated natural outflows for the period from 1937 to 1975 were run through the Great Lakes hydrologic response model to analyze the regulation effects on Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, and Erie. The results show no long-term bias due to regulation.     

REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING STUDY FOR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: The development of a regional water supply system for the six-county area of Northeastern Illinois is presented in this paper, including: 1) the establishment of regional water supply technical planning policies; 2) the development and utilization of a regional water supply computer model to identify the principal and secondary sources of water supply for each entity in the study area, based on an apparent cost-effective source analysis; and 3) utilization of the study results to develop for the year 2010 a suggested preliminary regional water supply system. Using the findings from task 2 above, a proposed plan for overall Lake Michigan water use through the year 2010 was also developed. The effects of the proposed regional water supply system on future water levels in the deep aquifer were also discussed.