A Probabilistic,Parcel‐Level Inundation Prediction Tool for Medium‐Range Flood Forecasting in Large Lake Systems

This study contributes a bathtub‐style inundation prediction model with abstractions of coastal processes (i.e., storm surge and wave runup) for flood forecasting at medium‐range (weekly to monthly) timescales along the coastline of large lakes. Uncertainty from multiple data sources are propagated through the model to establish probabilistic bounds of inundation, providing a conservative measure of risk. The model is developed in a case study of the New York Lake Ontario shoreline, which has experienced two record‐setting floods over the course of three years (2017–2019). Predictions are developed at a parcel‐level and are validated using inundation accounts from an online survey and flyover imagery taken during the recent flood events. Model predictions are compared against a baseline, deterministic model that accounts for the same processes but does not propagate forward data uncertainties. Results suggest that a probabilistic approach helps capture observed instances of inundation that would otherwise be missed by a deterministic inundation model. However, downward biases are still present in probabilistic predictions, especially for parcels impacted by wave runup. The goal of the tool is to provide community planners and property owners with a conservative, parcel‐level assessment of flood risk to help inform short‐term emergency response and better prepare for future flood events.     

The Effect of Oil Spraying on Eggs of Double-Crested Cormorants

Spraying eggs with oil has been used as a method of decreasing the reproductive success of super abundant avian species. Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) abundances have created a potential disturbance to some endangered species of birds, sport fishing communities and aquaculture facilities. The hatching success of oil sprayed Double-crested Cormorant eggs was investigated. Oil spraying was done during the first, second, or third week of the eggs incubation to determine the most effective time during the incubation period for a one-time treatment. The oil spraying technique was 95–98% effective at preventing hatching. Hatching success was independent of the week of incubation that an egg was sprayed with oil. The maximum number of eggs on the colony occurred four weeks after the first egg was laid. This would be the most efficient week to spray the colony to decrease hatching success.     

Evaluation of Optically Acquired Zooplankton Size-Spectrum Data as a Potential Tool for Assessment of Condition in the Great Lakes

An optical plankton counter (OPC) potentially provides an assessment tool for zooplankton condition in ecosystems that is rapid, economical, and spatially extensive. We collected zooplankton data with an OPC in 20 near-shore regions of 4 of the Laurentian Great Lakes. The zooplankton size information was used to compute mean size, biomass density, and size-spectra parameters for each location. The resulting metrics were analyzed for their ability to discriminate among the Great Lakes. Biomass density provided discrimination among lakes, as did several parameters describing spectra shape and distribution. A proposed zooplankton indicator, mean size (determined with OPC measurements in this study), was found to provide discrimination among lakes. Size-spectra-related parameters added increased ability to discriminate in conjunction with the biomass density (or mean size) metric. A discriminant function analysis of the multiple metrics (mean size, biomass density, and distribution parameters) suggests that a multi metric size-based approach might be used to classify communities among lakes improving a mean-size metric. The feasibility OPCs and size-based metrics for zooplankton assessment was found to have potential for further development as assessment tools for the biological condition of zooplankton communities in the Great Lakes.     

Carbon in the Vegetation and Soils of Great Britain

•The total amount of carbon held by vegetation in Great Britain is estimated to be 114 Mtonnes. •Woodlands and forests hold 80% of the G.B. total although they occupy only about 11% of the rural land area. Broadleaf species hold about 50% of the carbon in woodlands and forests. •A map of carbon in the vegetation of Great Britain at 1 km×1 km resolution based on land cover identified in the I.T.E. Land Cover Map is presented. The predominant location of vegetation carbon is the broadleaved woodlands of southern England. •The amount of carbon in the soils of Great Britain is estimated to be 9838 Mt (6948 Mt in Scotland and 2890 Mt in England and Wales). •In Scotland, most soil carbon is in blanket peats, whereas most soil carbon is in stagnogley soils in England and Wales. •The carbon content of the soils of Great Britain is mapped at 1 km×1 km resolution. Scottish peat soils have the greatest density of carbon and in total contain 4523 Mt of carbon, 46% of the G.B. total.     

大西南旅游资源的评价与开发

大西南的旅游资源丰富而独特，但开发程度低、经营粗放、发展整体性差、组合效益低．本文根据近年来的研究，从大西南的整体对其旅游资源进行分区及评价、并分析其开发的市场条件，提出了开发途径。     

Visitor impact on backcountry campsites in the Great Smoky Mountains

Over the last decade the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) has experienced a tremendous increase in visitation, especially in backcountry camping. In 1976 there were an estimated 117,500 backcountry visitor nights, with a peak of 16,865 visitor nights in April. The high use season extends from March to October. Visitation tends to be concentrated in certain sections of the park and at specific sites. The Appalachian Trail, which includes about 8 percent of the maintained trail mileage, carried 32 percent of the visitor nights in 1976.Campsite disturbance is also concentrated in specific sites and sections of the park. Maximum camping disturbance per km of maintained trail was 3,400 m² for the sites on the Appalachian Trail. Shelter sites have more visitation per site and more total disturbance per site than open campsites, but shelters tend to have less intensive disturbance, such as bare soil, because they concentrate trampling impacts. Visitation levels were strongly correlated with disturbances such as bare soil at open campsites. Visitation was significantly correlated to the number of firepits at shelter sites but not to other types of disturbance. Regressions indicate that for each additional visitor night at a site (annual average), one can expect an additional 9 m² of total disturbance and 1 m²of bare soil. The distance of a site from the nearest road was not significantly correlated with damage or visitation. Elevation was correlated to visitation levels, especially in the case of the shelters. More legal sites and large illegal sites are in mesic forest types. Illegal camping accounted for 10 percent of the total camping disturbance.The data imply that the suggested removal of shelters will require redistribution of visitor use or replacement developments, such as tent platforms, in order to mitigate damage. Zone camping is a possible alternative but presents difficulties because campers may concentrate in certain plant communities and topographic positions.     

Wild pig populations in the National Parks

Populations of introduced European wild boar, feral pigs, and combinations of both types (all Susscrola L.) inhabit thirteen areas in the National Park Service system. All parks have relatively stable populations, with the exception of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, which reported a rapidly expanding wild boar population. Suspected and documented impacts were apparently related to pig densities and sensitivity of the ecosystem; the three largest units with dense wild pig populations reported the most damage. Overall, wild pigs are a relatively minor problem for the Park Service; however, problems are severe in at least three parks, and there is potential for invasion of wild boars into several additional parks in the Appalachian Mountains. More specific information is needed on numbers of wild pigs and their impacts in the various parks.     

ATMOSPHERIC CONTROLS OF WATER EXCHANGE IN GREAT LAKES BASIN1

ABSTRACT Existing meteorological controls of water exchange by precipitation and evaporation on the Great Lakes are almost entirely inadvertent and related to man's urban-industrial complexes and their effect upon precipitation processes. These inadvertent effects have led to 10 to 40% increases in precipitation in localized areas within the basin. Envisioned growth of urban-industrial complexes within the Great Lakes region should lead to more inadvertent weather modification in the Basin. The only existing planned weather modification efforts are those at Lake Erie which are attempting to eliminate by redistribution the concentration of lake-derived heavy snowfall along the south shore. It appears reasonable to assume that practical increases of lake precipitation on the order of 5-20% could be achieved on an operational basis over the Great Lakes in the next 10 years, but the time of accomplishment will depend on national priorities, international cooperation, and economic factors. These activities would certainly produce a sizeable increase in the water quantity of the Great Lakes and should result in an improvement in water quality. Operational methods of evaporation suppression applicable to the lakes are just not available. Meteorological controls to ameliorate certain undesirable lake-effect snowstorms are a near reality.     

PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: The individual hydrologic components are assumed to be normally distributed for each month and linear regression equations are estimated for predicting the value of the individual monthly hydrologic components. It is shown that some of the hydrologic components for downwind (in this case downstream) lakes are dependent upon hydrologic events for the upwind lakes. This is particularly so for precipitation in the downwind lake basins which appears to be dependent upon evaporation values for upwind lakes.     

Applications of Numerical Sediment Quality Targets for Assessing Sediment Quality Conditions in a US Great Lakes Area of Concern

Contaminated sediments are receiving increasing recognition around the world, leading to the development of various sediment quality indicators for assessment, management, remediation, and restoration efforts. Sediment chemistry represents an important indicator of ecosystem health, with the concentrations of contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) providing measurable characteristics for this indicator. The St. Louis River Area of Concern (AOC), located in the western arm of Lake Superior, provides a case study for how numerical sediment quality targets (SQTs) for the protection of sediment-dwelling organisms can be used to support the interpretation of sediment chemistry data. Two types of SQTs have been established for 33 COPCs in the St. Louis River AOC. The Level I SQTs define the concentrations of contaminants below which sediment toxicity is unlikely to occur, whereas the Level II SQTs represent the concentrations that, if exceeded, are likely to be associated with sediment toxicity. The numerical SQTs provide useful tools for making sediment management decisions, especially when considered as part of a weight-of-evidence approach that includes other sediment quality indicators, such as sediment contaminant chemistry and geochemical characteristics, sediment toxicity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure. The recommended applications of using the numerical SQTs in the St. Louis River AOC include: designing monitoring programs, interpreting sediment chemistry data, conducting ecological risk assessments, and developing site-specific sediment quality remediation targets for small, simple sites where adverse biological effects are likely. Other jurisdictions may benefit from using these recommended applications in their own sediment quality programs.