英国联合利华公司的兼并策略研究

当前,国内外市场正掀起公司整合、兼并的浪潮,针对英国联合利华公司的战略动机和兼并对公司的潜在影响。运用竞争态势分析（SWOT）方法．从六个方面分析了联合利华公司两个成功案例。结合管理模式和国家文化的差异。关注社会文化与“战略性文化适应”。对联合利华最近5年来的成长战略和Best Foods公司战略核心要素进行了分析。评价了联合利华的战略发展和将来的战略发展方向。指出联合利华品牌减少战略体现出核心竞争,加强个人护理产品的生产．保持持续发展和竞争优势．以期达到相当的经济规模．是值得借鉴的成功经验。     

Modelling outflow from a ruptured pipeline transporting compressed volatile liquids

The paper presents a mathematical model for predicting outflow rates from a ruptured pipeline transporting compressed volatile liquids. The main focus of the paper is the methodology used to predict thermodynamic properties of interest. The model is validated using experimental data in the open literature. As the field scale outflow data does not include typical operating conditions the model is further validated at higher pressures and longer pipelines by comparing outflow rates calculated using a commercial pipeline simulation package, PROFES. The mathematical model predictions of mass flow rate and pipeline inventory agree well with the measured data and the more sophisticated pipeline model.

The simple pipeline rupture model is a useful tool for consequence analysis as it has a fast runtime on a standard PC. A further advantage is it is more easily, without having to address all of the numerical issues that arise when using a more sophisticated pipeline model. This allows a safety engineer to focus on the potential hazard rather than driving the model.     

Influence of super-absorbent polymer on the growth rate of gas hydrate

The growth rate of hydrate and morphology of methane hydrate formation were studied in a visual pressure cell at 5.5 MPa. The gas hydrate formation was carried out (coal mine methane (CMM) + tetrahydrofuran (THF) + sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) + H₂O) with and without SAP. Experimental data on the hydrate growth rate and induction time were obtained for three different CMM samples. The influence of SAP on hydrate growth rate was determined. Results showed that after the addition of SAP, with the methane concentration increased in CMM, the induction time was reduced by 9 min, 10 min and 3 min, and the growth rate was shortened by 0.56 × 10⁻⁶/m³ min⁻¹, 0.53 × 10⁻⁶/m³ min⁻¹ and 1.42 × 10⁻⁶/m³ min⁻¹, respectively. This study could be useful for the recovery of methane from CMM by forming hydrate in the chemical and mining industry.     

From conference abstract to publication in the conservation science literature

Every 2 years, the conservation community comes together at The Society for Conservation Biology's International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB) to share new developments in conservation science and practice. Publication of findings presented at conferences in scientific journals adds to the permanent record and helps increase the potential impact of the work presented. However, quantitative research on publication rates for meetings relevant to conservation is lacking. For the 25th ICCB, (Auckland, New Zealand in 2011), we examined study publication rates and presenter demographics, recorded titles, number of authors, presenter affiliations, gender, country of the study region, publication status, and elapsed time between presentation and publication. Of the 980 contributions (782 talks and 198 posters), 587 (60%) were published as peer-reviewed journal articles or book chapters. Mean time to publication was 13.7 months for all presentation abstracts and 21.3 months excluding abstracts with corresponding articles that were published before the meeting. The gender breakdown of presenters was almost even (53% male, 47% female), but representation of the countries where the presenting authors were based was skewed. The political units with the most contributions were by far the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Presenters based in 16 different English-speaking countries made up 74% of the total sample, but this did not influence the likelihood of their abstract leading to a publication. Examination of conference presenters and publication of their presentations is useful to identify biases and potential challenges that need to be addressed to make conference communications permanent and increase their reach beyond conference attendees.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction

A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100–1000 times pre‐human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard‐bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification—the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over‐ and under‐estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre‐human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05–0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher. Estimación de la Tasa Normal de Extinción de Especies     

Impact of human development on safety consciousness in construction

The International Labour Organization (ILO) reports that the risk of fatal occupational injuries in developing countries is almost twice as high as in developed countries, indicating a potential relationship between the fatality rates and the development level. The human development index (HDI), based on life expectancy, knowledge level and purchasing power parity, endorsed by the United Nations Development Programme, is a widely accepted measure of the development level. This study investigates the relationship between the HDI and the fatality rates reported by the ILO. A 23-country data set is used to demonstrate the general trend of the relationship followed by country-specific analyses for Australia, Spain, Hungary and Turkey. The study conducted is limited to fatal occupational injuries in construction, where the accidents are notoriously high. The results demonstrate a statistically significant inverse relationship between the fatality rates and the HDI.     

Growth accounting in a fishery

Since 1950, the real value of fish catches in Norway has about doubled, while the number of fishermen has declined by about 85 percent. This has made it possible to maintain fishermen's incomes roughly on par with other occupational groups in Norway. It is investigated to what extent this increase in labor productivity is due to accumulation of capital, increasingly abundant fish stocks, or technological progress. Since the capital stock in recent years is not much greater in real terms than in the early 1960s, it is tempting to ascribe most of the increase in labor productivity to technical progress. This, however, would leave out the role of fish stocks; if stocks have increased over this period, this would explain some of what otherwise appears as a technical progress. Using data on labor, capital, fish catches, and fish stock abundance 1961–2004 the development of total factor productivity is examined. Ignoring changes in fish stocks, total factor productivity is estimated to have increased by 0.8 percent per year. Accounting for changes in fish stocks raises this to 1.7–4.3 percent per year, depending on the importance assigned to stocks as factors of production.     

The role of images of conspecifics as visual cues in the development and behavior of larval anurans

Tadpoles can alter their behavior, morphology, and life history in response to habitat change. Although chemical signals from conspecifics or predators play an important role in tadpole habitat assessment, little is known about the role of visual cues and the extent to which tadpoles rely on their vision for intraspecific social assessment. The aim of our experiments was to determine whether larval anurans use visual images of other tadpoles as indicators of density and to analyze how, and to what extent, images of conspecifics alone affect tadpole development, growth, and behavior. To assess this, we raised both Rana sylvatica and Bufo americanus tadpoles in aquaria with either quarter- or half-mirrored walls. Both physically increased density and increased density simulated with mirrors decreased tadpole growth and developmental rates, and increased activity in Rana tadpoles. Bufo tadpoles did not significantly alter their growth and development in response to visually increased density. Only true, i.e., physically, increased density had an effect on growth and activity in Bufo tadpoles. Our data show that images of conspecifics are used as visual cues by Rana tadpoles and can induce phenotypically plastic changes in several traits. This response to visual cues is taxon-specific. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Growth rates in a wild primate population: ecological influences and maternal effects

Growth rate is a life-history trait often linked to various fitness components, including survival, age of first reproduction, and fecundity. Here we present an analysis of growth-rate variability in a wild population of savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus). We found that relative juvenile size was a stable individual trait during the juvenile period: individuals generally remained consistently large-for-age or small-for-age throughout development. Resource availability, which varied greatly in the study population (between completely wild-foraging and partially food-enhanced social groups), had major effects on growth. Sexual maturity was accelerated for animals in the food-enhanced foraging condition, and the extent and ontogeny of sexual dimorphism differed with resource availability. Maternal characteristics also had significant effects on growth. Under both foraging conditions, females of high dominance rank and multiparous females had relatively large-for-age juveniles. Large relative juvenile size predicted earlier age of sexual maturation for both males and females in the wild-feeding condition. This confirmed that maternal effects were pervasive and contributed to differences among individuals in fitness components.Communicated by J. Setchell