The contribution of ship emissions to air pollution in the North Sea regions

As a consequence of the global distribution of manufacturing sites and the increasing international division of labour, ship traffic is steadily increasing and is becoming more and more important as an origin of air pollution.This study investigates the impact of ship emissions in coastal areas of the North Sea under conditions of the year 2000 by means of a regional chemistry transport model which runs on a sufficiently high resolution to study air pollution in coastal regions. It was found that northern Germany and Denmark in summer suffer from more than 50% higher sulphate, nitrate and ammonium aerosol concentrations due to contributions from ships. The implementation of a sulphur emission control area (SECA) in the North Sea, as it was implemented at the end of 2007, directly results in reduced sulphur dioxide and sulphate aerosol concentrations while nitrate aerosol concentrations are slightly increased.     

Pollutants and the health of green sea turtles resident to an urbanized estuary in San Diego, CA

Rapid expansion of coastal anthropogenic development means that critical foraging and developmental habitats often occur near highly polluted and urbanized environments. Although coastal contamination is widespread, the impact this has on long-lived vertebrates like the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is unclear because traditional experimental methods cannot be applied. We coupled minimally invasive sampling techniques with health assessments to quantify contaminant patterns in a population of green turtles resident to San Diego Bay, CA, a highly urbanized and contaminated estuary. Several chemicals were correlated with turtle size, suggesting possible differences in physiological processes or habitat utilization between life stages. With the exception of mercury, higher concentrations of carapace metals as well as 4,4′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and γ chlordane in blood plasma relative to other sea turtle studies raises important questions about the chemical risks to turtles resident to San Diego Bay. Mercury concentrations exceeded immune function no-effects thresholds and increased carapace metal loads were correlated with higher levels of multiple health markers. These results indicate immunological and physiological effects studies are needed in this population. Our results give insight into the potential conservation risk contaminants pose to sea turtles inhabiting this contaminated coastal habitat, and highlight the need to better manage and mitigate contaminant exposure in San Diego Bay.     

Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

QSAR trout toxicity models on aromatic pesticides

The pesticides originally designed to kill target organisms are dangerous for many other wild species. Since they are applied directly to the environment, they can easily reach the water basins and the topsoil. A dataset of 125 aromatic pesticides with well-expressed aquatic toxicity towards trout was subjected to quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) analysis aimed to establish the relationship between their molecular structure and biological activity. A literature data for LC₅₀ concentration killing 50% of fish was used. In addition to the standard 2D-QSAR analysis, a comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) analysis considering the electrostatic and steric properties of the molecules was also performed. The CoMFA analysis helped the recognition of the steric interactions as playing an important role for aquatic toxicity. In addition, the transport properties and the stability of the compounds studied were also identified as important for their biological activity.     

Habitat type-based bioaccumulation and risk assessment of metal and As contamination in earthworms, beetles and woodlice

The present study investigated the contribution of environmental factors to the accumulation of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in earthworms, beetles and woodlice, and framed within an exposure assessment of the European hedgehog. Soil and invertebrate samples were collected in three distinct habitat types. Results showed habitat-specific differences in soil and invertebrate metal concentrations and bioaccumulation factors when normalized to soil metal concentration. Further multiple regression analysis showed residual variability (habitat differences) in bioaccumulation that could not be fully explained by differences in soil metal contamination, pH or organic carbon (OC). Therefore, the study demonstrated that in bioaccumulation studies involving terrestrial invertebrates or in risk assessment of metals, it is not sufficient to differentiate habitat types on general soil characteristics such as pH and/or OC alone. Furthermore, simple generic soil risk assessments for Cd and Cu showed that risk characterization was more accurate when performed in a habitat-specific way.     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

Fault-dynamic modelling of a phthalic anhydride reactor

A new methodology, fault-dynamic modelling, has been developed for analysis of potentially hazardous situations in the process industries. Traditional fault-tree analysis is used to determine the combinations of component failure that can lead to a particular process upset condition. Realistic dynamic modelling is then used to calculate the time available for corrective action once the upset has started. The method is applied to a phthalic anhydride reactor. The results of the analysis identify three process upsets that can lead to catastrophic failure in 2–5 min if left uncorrected. Other process upsets lead to safe conditions.     

Accidental release: Fuzzy selection of adequate formal model

Risk assessment of a chemical process plant requires the application of a variety of consequence models in order to estimate the potential physical effects of accidental releases. The types of models required vary depending upon the substance under consideration and the circumstances of a release. The objective of this study was the development and application of a system based upon ‘fuzzy logic’, for the selection of a computer model to be used in consequence analysis in specific situations where only certain types of consequence models can be used. The collection of data for modelling purposes from different kinds of computer model and application of fuzzy methods were also important aims of the study.     

Evaluation of guild-indicator species for use in resource management

We followed selection guidelines commonly used by management agencies to select mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) as an indicator species for an ecological guild of birds. We then evaluated the ability of mountain quail to indicate the presence of other species from the guild and to index the quality of the habitat for other species. The ability of quail to indicate the presence of species from the ecological guild varied widely within and among vegetation types. Species compositions of the ecological guild were more consistent in comparisons of sites within vegetation types than they were in comparisons of sites between vegetation types. Mountain quail habitat was significantly different from the habitats of sympatric species from the guild for 14 of 15 multivariate contrasts. We suggest that managers use indicator species with caution. If indicators are used, they should be applied to guilds composed of species that closely share ecological affinities. The habitat of the indicator species should overlap extensively with those of all other guild members. The use of indicators should be restricted to very similar sites within the same general vegetation type.