中国工业碳排放的因素分解与脱钩效应

采用广义迪氏指数分解法（GDIM）分析2000~2016年中国工业碳排放的驱动因素,并在此基础上,创新性地结合DPSIR框架构建脱钩努力模型测度工业碳排放的脱钩效应.研究结果表明：产出规模效应、技术进步效应、能源消费规模效应和人均碳排放效应是导致工业碳排放增加的主要因素,而产出碳强度效应与技术进步碳强度效应是减少工业碳排放的关键因素;工业碳排放的脱钩效应呈"未脱钩~弱脱钩~强脱钩"的阶段性特点;产出碳强度效应与技术进步碳强度效应是工业碳排放实现强脱钩的决定性因素,同时更需要调整能源结构、降低能源强度与碳排放强度来实现工业碳排放强脱钩.     

Benefits, efforts and risks of participants in landscape co-management: an analytical framework and results from two case studies in Austria

Participatory processes in general and also in relation to managing landscape issues are gathering importance mostly due to arguments surrounding legitimacy and effectiveness in decision-making. The main aim of this research, based on a transaction costs perspective, is to present an integrated analytical framework in order to determine individual efforts (time, money), benefits and risks of participants in landscape co-management processes. Furthermore a reflection on the analytical approach developed and arising lessons to be learned for landscape co-management are presented. In the analytical framework benefit-components comprise of factors such as 'contributing to landscape maintenance/development and nature protection', 'representing one's interest group', 'co-deciding on relevant topics', 'providing and broadening one's knowledge' and 'building networks'. The risks of participation are related to a lack of information and agreements, missing support and actual decision-making power. The analytical framework is applied to two case studies in Austria: an EU LIFE-Nature project and a Cultural Landscape Project of the Provincial Government of Lower Austria. Analysis of the effort-benefit-relations provides an indication for a more effective design of co-management. Although the processes are rated as quite adequate, there is a low willingness of participants to commit additional time to co-management processes. In contrast to the Cultural Landscape Project, in the LIFE-Nature project, professionally involved persons participate next to partly and full volunteers. These uneven conditions of participation and an unfair distribution of transaction costs, jeopardize the promising chances co-management bears for landscape governance.     

Identifying fishing trip behaviour and estimating fishing effort from VMS data using Bayesian Hidden Markov Models

Recent advances in technologies have lead to a vast influx of data on movements, based on discrete recorded position of animals or fishing boats, opening new horizons for future analyses. However, most of the potential interest of tracking data depends on the ability to develop suitable modelling strategies to analyze trajectories from discrete recorded positions. A serious modelling challenge is to infer the evolution of the true position and the associated spatio-temporal distribution of behavioural states using discrete, error-prone and incomplete observations. In this paper, a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (HBM) using Hidden Markov Process (HMP) is proposed as a template for analyzing fishing boats trajectories based on data available from satellite-based vessel monitoring systems (VMS). The analysis seeks to enhance the definition of the fishing pressure exerted on fish stocks, by discriminating between the different behavioural states of a fishing trip, and also by quantifying the relative importance of each of these states during a fishing trip. The HBM approach is tested to analyse the behaviour of pelagic trawlers in the Bay of Biscay. A hidden Markov chain with a regular discrete time step is used to model transitions between successive behavioural states (e.g., fishing, steaming, stopping (at Port or at sea)) of each vessel. The parameters of the movement process (speed and turning angles) are defined conditionally upon the behavioural states. Bayesian methods are used to integrate the available data (typically VMS position recorded at discrete time) and to draw inferences on any unknown parameters of the model. The model is first tested on simulated data with different parameters structures. Results provide insights on the potential of HBM with HMP to analyze VMS data. They show that if VMS positions are recorded synchronously with the instants at which the process switch from one behavioural state to another, the estimation method provides unbiased and precise inferences on behavioural states and on associated movement parameters. However, if the observations are not gathered with a sufficiently high frequency, the performance of the estimation method could be drastically impacted when the discrete observations are not synchronous with the switching instants. The model is then applied to real pathways to estimate variables of interest such as the number of operations per trip, time and distance spent fishing or travelling.     

Ranked set sample design for environmental investigations

Ranked set sampling can provide an efficient basis for estimating parameters of environmental variables, particularly when sampling costs are intrinsically high. Various ranked set estimators are considered for the population mean and contrasted in terms of their efficiencies and useful- ness, with special concern for sample design considerations. Specifically, we consider the effects of the form of the underlying random variable, optimisation of efficiency and how to allocate sampling effort for best effect (e.g. one large sample or several smaller ones of the same total size). The various prospects are explored for two important positively skew random variables (lognormal and extreme value) and explicit results are given for these cases. Whilst it turns out that the best approach is to use the largest possible single sample and the optimal ranked set best linear estimator (ranked set BLUE), we find some interesting qualitatively different conclusions for the two skew distributions     

Removal process estimation of population size for a population with a known sex ratio

A removal model for estimating population size which uses the known population sex ratio is studied. A maximum likelihood estimate and an optimal martingale estimate of the population size are proposed. Their standard errors and large sample properties are obtained. Simulation studies are reported, and the performance of the proposed estimators are compared with the standard maximum likelihood estimator which ignores the sex ratio information. An example on a capture study of deer mice is given.     

Adjustment of parental effort to manipulated foraging ability in a pelagic seabird,the thin-billed prion Pachyptila belcheri

An experiment was designed to examine in a long-lived seabird, the thin-billed prion (Pachyptila belcheri), how adults adjust their food provisioning strategy when their foraging abilities are reduced and when the chick's needs are increased. To reduce the foraging abilities of adults we impaired their flying ability by removing some flight feathers (handicapped), and to increase the food needs of the chick one parent was retained (single). Birds made either short foraging trips lasting 1–3 days, or long trips lasting 5–9 days. Control birds alternated long and short trips whereas single birds or handicapped birds made several successive short trips and thereafter a long trip. In each treatment, food loads tended to be heavier after long trips than after short trips, and single birds tended to bring heavier loads than control or handicapped birds. Birds in the three treatments lost similar amounts of mass after short trips and gained similar amounts of mass after long trips. However, the mass of handicapped birds declined through the experiment, while that of control and single birds remained stable. Although the proportion of chicks that died during the experiment was similar among the three treatments, the chicks fledged by a single bird were lighter than those in control nests. The results of the experiment suggest that thin-billed prions adjust their breeding effort differently to decreased flying ability or increased food demand by the chick. Single birds increase foraging effort without allowing their condition to deteriorate. Conversely, handicapped birds are unable to maintain their body condition while sustaining the chick at the same rate as control birds. It is suggested that in this long-lived seabird, adults probably adjust their breeding effort so that they do not incur the risk of an increased mortality, this risk being monitored by the body condition.     

Male mating history and female fecundity in the Lepidoptera: do male virgins make better partners?

In insects, large ejaculate and associated materials, including spermatophores, appear to have evolved via sexual selection acting on males to either delay female remating or to increase the rate of egg-laying. It is also possible, however, that females use nutrients transferred during mating to increase their lifetime fecundity. If so, male ejaculate size may also have evolved under natural selection as a form of paternal investment. In Lepidoptera, males with a greater number of prior matings tend to produce smaller spermatophores. However, the reported effects of male mating history on female fecundity vary widely among species. We therefore performed a meta-analysis using data from 29 studies of 25 species. Overall, the reproductive output of females mated to virgin males was significantly higher than that of females mated to sexually experienced males (Hedges d=0.33, P<0.01). A sample size of around 145 females per male mating type is required to detect an effect of this size with 80% statistical power at =0.05 (two-tailed). There was no difference in mean effect size between butterflies/skippers and moths. After controlling for any effect of taxonomic group, however, the mean effect size for polyandrous species was significantly greater than that for monandrous species (Hedges d=0.45 vs 0.25, P=0.01). We then discuss possible reasons why male mating history, presumably acting through its effect on spermatophore size, might have a stronger effect in polyandrous than monandrous species.Communicated by A. Cockburn     

Ventilation or nest defense—parental care trade-offs in a fish with male care

Brood guarding animals face many critical trade-offs. Sand goby males (Pomatoschistus minutus) build nests with larger openings during low oxygen conditions, presumably to enhance ventilation. However, this may make the nest easier for egg predators to detect and harder for guarding males to defend. Manipulating oxygen level and predator presence (a small crab) for small and large males, we found support for a parental trade-off between fanning and nest defense. An increased fanning activity resulted in less time for guarding. Small males and males in low oxygen showed a higher fanning expenditure than large males and males in high oxygen, but surprisingly, filial cannibalism did not differ between these groups. Males built larger nest openings in low than high oxygen. However, males in both high and low oxygen treatments reduced their nest opening size in the presence of a predator, again indicating an important trade-off between ventilation and nest defense.     

Evaluation of design alternatives for sewing scissors with respect to hand performance,discomfort and usability

The effects of three re-designed models of sewing scissors on hand performance measures, discomfort and usability were investigated, and the results were compared with those of conventional scissors. Adjustments were made to the scissors handle with emphasis on more neutral wrist postures (bent handle - model A), correction of the thumb's position and movements (model B) and reducing hand/finger discomfort (model C) while working with the tool. The results showed some improvements in hand performance, muscular effort, usability and discomfort with model B compared to the conventional model. Better hand performance and usability and lower discomfort were recorded with model C compared to the conventional model. The results suggest that the correction of the thumb's position and movement (model B) or even reduced hand/finger discomfort (model C) are perhaps more important considerations in scissors design than improved wrist posture (model A) for improving users' performance and usability of the tool.