Impact of Human Activities on Carbon Dioxide (CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Emissions: A Statistical Analysis

Summary The balance of evidence suggests a perceptible human influence on global ecosystems. Human activities are affecting the global ecosystem, some directly and some indirectly. If researchers could clarify the extent to which specific human activities affect global ecosystems, they would be in a much better position to suggest strategies for mitigating against the worst disturbances. Sophisticated statistical analysis can help in interpreting the influence of specific human activities on global ecosystems more carefully. This study aims at identifying significant or influential human activities (i.e. factors) on CO₂ emissions using statistical analyses. The study was conducted for two cases: (i) developed countries and (ii) developing countries. In developed countries, this study identified three influential human activities for CO₂ emissions: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) population pressure on natural and terrestrial ecosystems, and (iii) land use change. In developing countries, the significant human activities causing an upsurge of CO₂ emissions are: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) terrestrial ecosystem strength and (iii) land use change. Among these factors, combustion of fossil fuels is the most influential human activity for CO₂ emissions both in developed and developing countries. Regression analysis based on the factor scores indicated that combustion of fossil fuels has significant positive influence on CO₂ emissions in both developed and developing countries. Terrestrial ecosystem strength has a significant negative influence on CO₂ emissions. Land use change and CO₂ emissions are positively related, although regression analysis showed that the influence of land use change on CO₂ emissions was still insignificant. It is anticipated, from the findings of this study, that CO₂ emissions can be reduced by reducing fossil-fuel consumption and switching to alternative energy sources, preserving exiting forests, planting trees on abandoned and degraded forest lands, or by planting trees by social/agroforestry on agricultural lands.     

珠江上游少数民族县域经济活动的累积环境效应研究--以贵州三都水族自治县为例

为了探索珠江上游少数民族区域经济活动的累积环境效应与生态安全，我们选择三都水族自治县作为定位研究基地．对建国以来区域内经济活动变迁进行历史、现状研究和综合评估，揭示历史时期发展政策、发展模式、重大经济活动等人为扰动因素在区域生态环境系统退化过程中的作用．评估少数民族经济活动的累积环境效应与生态安全。     

Untangling unexpected terrestrial conservation challenges arising from the historical human exploitation of marine mammals in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

Intensive human exploitation of the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) in its primary population centre on sub-Antarctic South Georgia, as well as on other sub-Antarctic islands and parts of the South Shetland Islands, in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries rapidly brought populations to the brink of extinction. The species has now recovered throughout its original distribution. Non-breeding and yearling seals, almost entirely males, from the South Georgia population now disperse in the summer months far more widely and in higher numbers than there is evidence for taking place in the pre-exploitation era. Large numbers now haul out in coastal terrestrial habitats in the South Orkney Islands and also along the north-east and west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula to at least Marguerite Bay. In these previously less- or non-visited areas, the seals cause levels of damage likely never to have been experienced previously to fragile terrestrial habitats through trampling and over-fertilisation, as well as eutrophication of sensitive freshwater ecosystems. This increased area of summer impact is likely to have further synergies with aspects of regional climate change, including reduction in extent and duration of sea ice permitting seals access farther south, and changes in krill abundance and distribution. The extent and conservation value of terrestrial habitats and biodiversity now threatened by fur seal distribution expansion, and the multiple anthropogenic factors acting in synergy both historically and to the present day, present a new and as yet unaddressed challenge to the agencies charged with ensuring the protection and conservation of Antarctica’s unique ecosystems.     

Scientists as Stakeholders in Conservation of Hydrothermal Vents

Abstract: Hydrothermal vents are deep‐sea ecosystems that are almost exclusively known and explored by scientists rather than the general public. Continuing scientific discoveries arising from study of hydrothermal vents are concommitant with the increased number of scientific cruises visiting and sampling vent ecosystems. Through a bibliometric analysis, we assessed the scientific value of hydrothermal vents relative to two of the most well‐studied marine ecosystems, coral reefs and seagrass beds. Scientific literature on hydrothermal vents is abundant, of high impact, international, and interdisciplinary and is comparable in these regards with literature on coral reefs and seagrass beds. Scientists may affect hydrothermal vents because their activities are intense and spatially and temporally concentrated in these small systems. The potential for undesirable effects from scientific enterprise motivated the creation of a code of conduct for environmentally and scientifically benign use of hydrothermal vents for research. We surveyed scientists worldwide engaged in deep‐sea research and found that scientists were aware of the code of conduct and thought it was relevant to conservation, but they did not feel informed or confident about the respect other researchers have for the code. Although this code may serve as a reminder of scientists’ environmental responsibilities, conservation of particular vents (e.g., closures to human activity, specific human management) may effectively ensure sustainable use of vent ecosystems for all stakeholders.     

Human exposure to a mixture of endocrine disruptors and serum levels of thyroid hormones: A cross-sectional study

Exposure to endocrine disruptors (EDCs) could disrupt thyroid hormone homeostasis. However, human epidemiological studies reported inconsistent observations, and scarce information on the effect of a mixture of chemicals. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations of multiple chemicals with thyroid hormones among adults from China. We measured serum levels of thyroid hormones and urinary levels of 11 EDCs, including six phthalate metabolites, bisphenol A (BPA), bisphenol F (BPF), bisphenol S (BPS), perchlorate, and thiocyanate among 177 healthy adults without occupational exposure. Associations of multiple urinary analytes with serum thyroid hormones were examined by performing general linear regression analysis and bayesian kernal machine regression analysis. These EDCs were detected in almost all samples. After adjusting for various covariates, we observed only BPF significantly associated with total thyroxin (TT4) (β=-0.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) [-0.41, -0.14]), total triiodothyronine (TT3) (β=-0.02 95% CI [-0.03, -0.01]), free T4 (fT4) (β=-0.02, 95% CI [-0.03, -0.01]), and free T3 (fT3) (β=-0.04, 95% CI [-0.07, -0.01]), and mono-(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (MEOHP) and monoethyl phthalate (MEP) positively associated with TT4 (β=0.24, 95% CI [0.01, 0.48]) and fT4 (β=0.02, 95% CI [0.01, 0.04]), respectively. Moreover, we observed significant dose-response relationships between TT4 and the mixture of 11 EDCs, and BPF was the main contributor to the mixture effect, suggesting the priority of potential effect of BPF on disrupting thyroid function under a real scenario of human exposure to multiple EDCs. Our findings supported the hypothesis that human exposure to low levels of EDCs could alter thyroid hormones homeostasis among non-occupational healthy adults.     

How humans shape wolf behavior in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada

This paper describes the conceptualization and implementation of an agent-based model to investigate how varying levels of human presence could affect elements of wolf behavior, including highway crossings; use of areas in proximity to roads and trails; size of home ranges; activities, such as hunting, patrolling, resting, and feeding pups; and survival of individuals in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada. The model consists of a wolf module as the primary component with five packs represented as cognitive agents, and grizzly bear, elk, and human modules that represent dynamic components of the environment. A set of environmental data layers was used to develop a friction model that serves as a base map representing the landscape over which wolves moved. A decision model was built to simulate the sequence of wolf activities. The model was implemented in a Java Programming Language using RePast, an agent-based modeling library. Six months of wolf activities were simulated from April 16 to October 15 (i.e., a season coherent with regard to known wolf behaviors), and calibrated with GPS data from wolf radiocollars (n = 15) deployed from 2002 to 2004. Results showed that the simulated trajectories of wolf movements were correlated with the observed trajectories (Spearman's rho 0.566, P < 0.001); other critical behaviors, such as time spent at the den and not traveling were also correlated. The simulations revealed that wolf movements and behaviors were noticeably affected by the intensity of human presence. The packs’ home ranges shrank and wolves crossed highways less frequently with increased human presence. In an extreme example, a wolf pack whose home range is traversed by a high-traffic-volume highway was extirpated due to inability to hunt successfully under a scenario wherein human presence levels were increased 10-fold. The modeling prototype developed in this study may serve as a tool to test hypotheses about human effects on wolves and on other mammals, and guide decision-makers in designing management strategies that minimize impacts on wolves and on other species functionally related to wolves in the ecosystem.     

农业活动干扰下地下水无机碳循环过程研究

为准确识别浅层地下水污染来源及污染过程,选择我国北方某集约化蔬菜种植基地浅层地下水作为研究对象,借助水化学组成、氢氧同位素以及溶解性无机碳(DIC)碳同位素组成,探讨浅层地下水来源以及DIC来源和迁移转化特征.结果表明:浅层地下水阳离子以Ca²⁺和Mg²⁺为主,阴离子以HCO₃^-和SO₄^2-为主,沿地下水流向,水化学类型由HCO₃^?-Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺型转变为HCO₃^--SO₄^2--Mg²⁺-Ca²⁺型;浅层地下水δD组成范围为-69.6‰~-52.7‰,均值为-63.5‰,δ¹⁸O组成范围为-9.29‰~-6.80‰,均值为-8.45‰.大气降水是浅层地下水重要补给来源,靠近河水的浅层地下水还接受地表水的补给;浅层地下水δ¹³C_DIC组成范围为-11.76‰~-5.85‰,均值为-10.43‰.浅层地下水DIC来源包括土壤CO₂、碳酸盐矿物以及有机质分解.河水DIC侧渗对局部浅层地下水DIC碳同位素造成影响,化学肥料引起的酸性物质参与碳酸盐矿物风化作用以及浅层地下水CO₂去气作用对地下水δ¹³C_DIC组成产生影响,在利用DIC碳同位素识别地下水污染来源时需要引起重视.     

人的安全性评价研究

随着人们对人在整个安全系统中的重要性认识的不断提高 ,如何对人的安全性进行科学的评价也就越来越显得重要。笔者在综合论述了目前我国对机车乘务人员、起重机械作业人员、驾驶员以及电力运行人员的安全性研究以及国外相关研究的基础上 ,提出了有关人的安全性评价的定义 ,并提出如何建立人的安全性评价体系以及对人的安全性评价的通用指标 ,探讨了在实际工作中如何运用上述指标去评价人的安全性。为人的安全性评价提供了一种有效的方法和新的研究思路     

The Water Fluxes of the Yellow River to the Sea in the Past 50 Years, in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and “natural” river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0°C, from 16.5°C to 17.5°C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%.