On the integrated modelling of coastal changes

This paper introduces a possible approach to integrated modelling of coastal change, focusing on coastal land use and cover change. Some of the mostimportant open issues in the context of integrated modelling of coastal change are introduced. The paper focuses on methdological aspects. Specific reference is made to Physiographic Unit Modelling as an approach to better handle spatial variability and ‘morphogenesis’, and as a way to focus on coastal change mechanisms instead of absolute coastal dynamics for achieving an important simplification of the problem. The application is briefly discussed with reference to a ‘minimal model’. The methodological structure introduced is considered particularly suitable to represent, according to a variable degree of simplification, the integrative dynamics between resources and uses of the resources.     

centrifugal用热控装置设计

目的 评估飞行器产品在飞行过程对热–离心综合环境的适应性,研制一套热–离心综合环境试验用热控装置。方法 从热–离心试验需求出发,完成综合试验系统总体研制目标及系统方案设计。针对高g值离心环境（离心加速度值≥90g）下的热载荷加载需求,开展基于热传导的热载荷加载方法研究,并完成适用于高g值环境的热控装置硬件布局优化设计。提出基于分段包络思想的产品响应温度梯度分布效应模拟方法及实现,减少过试验考核。结果 利用该热控装置完成了热–离心综合环境功能验证试验,设置最大加速度为92g,保载时间为3 min,最高加热温度为150℃,最大温升速率为3℃/min,3温区控制,升温过程中,温度误差优于±1.5℃。结论 该热–离心综合环境试验用热控装置可用于飞行器产品热–离心综合环境试验的考核。     

单元自动演化模型自动生成农田保护区的研究

我国已进入了快速城市化的时期,许多城市都在制定和实施农田保护区计划．本文提出了利用单元自动演化模型、地理信息系统与遥感等技术相结合的新方法来自动生成农田保护区,获得了十分令人满意的结果．该方法可以为政府部门和规划工作者提供一种科学制定农田保护区的新手段,大大节省人力、物力．并能获得农田保护区在空间的优化分布,这是常规方法所不能比拟的．     

基于层次分析方法的城市火灾风险评估研究

城市区域消防安全评估是科学有效地进行城市消防规划、部署和消防法规的制定的重要依据,对于城市建设和社会经济的协调发展具有保证和促进作用。根据《中华人民共和国消防法》及《机关、团体、企业、事业单位消防安全管理规定(61号令)》对消防管理对象的界定标准,提出分类方法,确定了城市区域消防安全体系的组成要素,采用层次分析法确定了各要素的权重,应用多层次多目标系统模糊优选理论,建立了城市区域消防安全评价模型,对城市区域消防安全评估进行了方法研究和具体计算,并应用所设计的模型对北京市宣武区的区域消防安全状况进行了分析评估。计算结果证明了方法的有效性。     

Linking Terrestrial and Marine Conservation Planning and Threats Analysis

Abstract:  The existence of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone makes it clear that marine ecosystems can be damaged by terrestrial inputs. Marine and terrestrial conservation planning need to be aligned in an explicit fashion to fully represent threats to marine systems. To integrate conservation planning for terrestrial and marine systems, we used a novel threats assessment that included 5 cross-system threats in a site-prioritization exercise for the Pacific Northwest coast ecoregion (U.S.A.). Cross-system threats are actions or features in one ecological realm that have effects on species in another realm. We considered bulkheads and other forms of shoreline hardening threats to terrestrial systems and roads, logging, agriculture, and urban areas threats to marine systems. We used 2 proxies of freshwater influence on marine environments, validated against a mechanistic model and field observations, to propagate land-based threats into marine sites. We evaluated the influence of cross-system threats on conservation priorities by comparing MARXAN outputs for 3 scenarios that identified terrestrial and marine priorities simultaneously: (1) no threats, (2) single-system threats, and (3) single- and cross-system threats. Including cross-system threats changed the threat landscape dramatically. As a result the best plan that included only single-system threats identified 323 sites (161,500 ha) at risk from cross-system threats. Including these threats changed the location of best sites. By comparing the best and sum solutions of the single- and cross-system scenarios, we identified areas ideal for preservation or restoration through integrated management. Our findings lend quantitative support to the call for explicitly integrated decision making and management action in terrestrial and marine ecosystems.     

Seasonal and spatial character of PCBs in a chemical industrial zone of Shanghai,China

As one of China’s great metropolises, Shanghai is suffering from the impact of manufacture and the use of chemical industrial products, and it faces serious pollution from polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Therefore, in this study, in order to assess the seasonal and spatial character of contamination from chemical industrial zones, the concentrations of PCBs have been measured in various environmental media, including soil, leaves, and atmospheric particulate samples collected in a chemical industrial zone of Shanghai and compared with samples from presumably unpolluted sites of rural areas. In soils, the PCB concentrations ranged from 0.5 ng g⁻¹ (unpolluted site) to 586.85 ng g⁻¹ (chlor-alkali industry site). The concentrations of PCBs in evergreen leaves ranged from 0.3 ng g⁻¹ to 32.46 ng g⁻¹, and more chlorinated biphenyls congeners, such as penta-biphenyls and hexa-biphenyls, were the dominant contributors in winter and spring. Seasonal differences and the constitution patterns of congeners might be affected by the temperature and industrial activities. The PCB concentrations in the leaves of deciduous trees increase over time as the leaves grow. The PCB concentration in atmospheric particulates was in the range of 9.22–14.15 × 10³ pg m⁻³, which might be the result of influence from climate and industrial activities. The relativity of PCB contents among the environmental media was discussed. The results in this paper provide an important profile of the current contamination status of a key chemical industrial zone in China.     

有机污染物在包气带中迁移转化试验研究

采集一定浓度的有机物废水 ,在试验室内进行了静态吸附、静态降解和动态土柱试验 ,对COD在包气带中迁移转化规律进行研究 ,提出了描述COD在包气带中迁移转化规律的数学模型。结果表明 :包气带对COD的吸附过程是线性的 ,可用亨利吸附模式s =Kdc +s0 表示 ,吸附系数Kd=0 .0 6 93;包气带对COD的降解曲线基本符合一级动力学方程c =c0 e-k1 t,降解系数k1=0 .0 4 99d-1;弥散试验测得弥散系数D =0 .0 0 2 4 2m2 /d。COD在包气带中的迁移转化过程是弥散、吸附、降解等多种作用共同作用的结果。     

基于覆岩裂隙带发育高度的走向高抽巷合理位置确定

为确定大采高综采面高抽巷的合理位置,以李村煤矿1303工作面为研究背景,采用理论分析、数值模拟及现场监测等研究方法,对1303工作面覆岩裂隙发育特征、高抽巷空间位置对其围岩稳定性与抽采效果的影响规律进行系统研究。研究结果表明:高抽巷宜布置在覆岩裂隙发育区,远离回风巷道采动应力影响的位置;1303工作面覆岩破坏范围随推进距离增加,呈现先急剧增大后趋于稳定的趋势,工作面推进距离为300 m时,裂隙带高度稳定在50 m左右,形成瓦斯抽采的优势通道;高抽巷距离煤层顶板、回风巷越近,越易失稳,不利于长期抽采,综合考虑高抽巷不同位置时的瓦斯抽采效率及围岩稳定性,确定其合理位置分别是距离回风巷平距为35 m,垂距为45 m;结合现场瓦斯浓度监测结果,得出上隅角、工作面、回风巷瓦斯浓度最大值分别为0.42%,0.24%,0.33%,远低于瓦斯超限标准1%,进一步证明高抽巷层位的合理布置,可以提高瓦斯抽采效果。     

Development of a FRAM-based framework to identify hazards in a complex system

System-based approaches such as Functional Resonance Analysis Model (FRAM) are developed to model the complex interactions of system variables and their performance variabilities that may lead to a hazardous scenario in a complex system. However, they have limitations to be applied in process industries for hazard identification since they are heavily based on qualitative analysis and expert elicitations. To overcome the limitations of the system-based hazard identification, the study developed a FRAM-based framework to integrate a human performance model, an equipment performance model, and a first-principle based chemical process model into a hybrid simulator, which will be able to aid hazard analysis in the process industries. The simulator is capable of simulating the performance variabilities of the functions through the aggregation of mathematical models within a complex system, which can be used to simulate potential hazard situations and identify the corresponding interactions. Interaction analysis is conducted by applying association rule mining to the simulated data. The impact of the interactions among upstream functions on the performance of downstream functions can be identified by interpreting the rules, whose antecedents contain upstream functions and consequents contain downstream functions.     

东营市海岸带区域综合承载力评估

随着人类对海岸带开发强度的不断提高,海岸带资源、环境问题日益突出,海岸带可持续发展成为人类共识,海岸带区域综合承载力研究作为该区域可持续发展的基础性研究,可以为海岸带区域合理开发与管理提供重要理论支撑。本文选取东营市海岸带为研究区域,以海岸带湿地遥感解译数据、浅海水质监测数据及社会经济统计数据为数据源,运用状态空间法计算了研究区2010—2014年海岸带区域的综合承载力;对东营市与潍坊市、滨州市的海岸带区域综合承载力进行了比较分析;预测了2016—2020年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力;依据研究结果探讨了海岸带可持续利用的未来途径。结果表明:在过去的2010—2014年和预测的2016—2020年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力均处于超载状态,但总趋势是向好的;同时,2010—2014年东营市海岸带在吸引外资、港口发展、海岸带生态系统服务价值、浅海海域水环境方面具有明显优势,但社会公共服务投入不平衡、不稳定。与2016—2020年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力预测结果相比较而言,2011年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力超载最明显,与该年环境压力大和社会投入不足有关。2014年东营市各县区海岸带区域综合承载力均处于超载状态,广饶县超载最明显;同时各县区自然、社会、经济发展水平差异较大,市辖区社会经济指标优于各县区。东营市海岸带区域综合承载力相比潍坊市、滨州市在资源、环境、生态方面具有明显优势,但在社会支撑方面投入不足,因此可以通过保持资源、生态优势,弥补社会投入不足等措施提高东营市海岸带可持续利用水平。