PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF THE NONLINEAR MUSKINGUM MODEL USING HARMONY SEARCH1

ABSTRACT: A newly developed heuristic algorithm, Harmony Search, is applied to the parameter estimation problem of the nonlinear Muskingum model. Harmony Search found better values of parameters in the nonlinear Muskingum model than five other methods including another heuristic method, genetic algorithm, in terms of SSQ (the sum of the square of the deviations between the observed and routed outflows), SAD (the sum of the absolute value of the deviations between the observed and routed outflows), DPO (deviations of peak of routed and actual flows), and DPOT (deviations of peak time of routed and actual outflow). Harmony Search also has the advantage that it does not require the process of assuming the initial values of design parameters. The sensitivity analysis of Harmony Memory Considering Rate showed that relatively large values of Harmony Memory Considering Rate makes the Harmony Search converge to a better solution.     

活性炭与炭黑混合电极的脱盐性能及相关工艺参数的优化

混合电极中各组分的质量比是影响膜电容去离子(membrane capacitive deionization, MCDI)系统脱盐性能的重要因素。重点研究了混合电极中活性材料(活性炭)、导电剂(炭黑)和粘结剂(聚四氟乙烯)3种组分的质量比对MCDI系统脱盐性能的影响,并优化了工艺参数。实验结果表明,在进水氯化钠质量浓度为0.4 g·L⁻¹时,控制活性炭、炭黑及聚四氟乙烯的质量比为8∶1∶1、运行电压为1.2 V,进水流速为4 mL·min⁻¹,MCDI系统具有较优异的脱盐性能,其吸附容量和脱盐速度分别为10.13 mg·g⁻¹和0.44 μmol·(cm²·min)⁻¹,电荷效率和单位能量脱盐量可分别达95.27%和8.23 μmol·J⁻¹;而且,增大进水中氯化钠浓度会进一步提升MCDI系统的吸附容量和脱盐速度,但其脱盐率会有所降低。吸附热力学和动力学拟合结果表明,此混合电极材料脱盐过程分别符合Freundlich吸附等温方程和准二级动力学方程。     

氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期评价及关键参数对比

发展氢燃料电池汽车被认为是解决能源安全和环境污染问题的理想解决方案之一,为量化探究氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的化石能源消耗和排放情况,运用GaBi软件建模,以新能源汽车相关技术路线为参考,构建我国氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的数据清单并对其全生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值情况进行定量评价计算和预测分析,对不同类型的双极板、不同能量控制策略和不同制氢方式对环境的影响分别进行了对比研究,并对关键数据进行了不确定分析.结果表明,预计到2030年我国每台氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期的化石能源消耗量（ADP_f）、全球变暖潜值（GWP,以CO₂ eq计）和酸化潜值（AP,以SO₂ eq计）分别为1.35×10⁵ MJ、9108 kg和15.79 kg.动力系统生产制造阶段的化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值均高于使用阶段,主要原因是燃料电池堆栈和储氢罐的制造过程.金属双极板、石墨复合双极板和石墨双极板的制造工艺中石墨复合双极板的综合环境效益最好.能量控制策略的优化会使得氢能消耗降低,当氢能消耗降低22.8%时,动力系统的生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值分别降低10.4%和8.3%.相比于甲烷蒸气重整制氢,基于混合电网电解水制氢的动力系统生命周期全球变暖潜值高出53.7%[KG-*6],而基于水电电解水制氢降低39.6%.降低动力系统生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值的措施包括优化能量控制策略降低氢能消耗、规模化发展可再生能源发电电解水制氢产业和聚焦突破燃料电池堆栈关键技术实现性能提升.     

Estimating Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis migration using a mass balance model expressed by hydrological distribution parameters in a major limpid river basin in Japan

We examined the influence of several hydrological and meteorological parameters on the migratory movements of ayu Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in central Japan. When comprehensively evaluating rivers and ayu behaviour on a catchment scale, the subjects of analysis typically include human activities and hydrological and meteorological phenomena. However, limiting analyses to such factors may be too restrictive when human activities are being conducted. Accordingly, we incorporated a biological viewpoint into the evaluation method, analysing hydrological data (river discharge, river water temperature, sea water temperature) to determine watershed characteristics and examining the relationship between these characteristics and the habitat conditions of ayu. Then we constructed a numerical model for ayu migratory runs that incorporated ayu ecology and watershed characteristics. Analyses of ayu movements from a lower estuarine dam demonstrated that downstream displacements were associated with high water flows of more than 200 m³ s⁻¹ at the beginning of summer. We conclude that it is important to consider the effects of environmental parameters on the movements of different fish species to understand the causes of spatial variation in fish distribution in lowland rivers.     

环境模型参数识别与不确定性分析

在对水文模型实例的参数不确定性分析基础上,分别采用传统灵敏度分析方法、HSY算法、线性回归等方法对模型参数特性进行了识别与比较研究.结果表明参数优化算法与传统灵敏度分析方法不能解释模型结构复杂性特征,采用不确定性分析方法对环境模型参数进行识别提供了深入分析与理解模型系统的有效途径.     

上海市大气总汞季节变化特征及与气象条件的关系

2008年到2010年对上海市西南部大气中总汞(TGM———Total Gaseous Mercury)的污染水平进行监测,结果表明TGM日均浓度为ND~57.23ng/m(3(7.79±3.29)ng/m)3。TGM呈现出一定的季节性变化特征,浓度最高的是秋季,然后依次是冬季、春季、夏季,平均浓度分别为(9.30±2.48)、(8.32±2.79)、(7.78±2.33)、(2.16±3.29)ng/m3。TGM浓度受东南风向影响最大,其次为西北和东北风向。在置信水平为95%的情况下,TGM浓度与日平均温度呈正相关性,而与日温差、相对湿度、日相对湿度差、风速无显著相关性。但TGM浓度分别与日均O3浓度和NO2浓度均呈显著正相关。利用HYSPLIT_4模型对TGM浓度高值与低值几天的空气气团来源轨迹进行反演,结果发现高低浓度日的气团来源略有差别,总体上看,冬季、春季和秋季受北方气团影响较大,夏季则受我国东部海域影响,具体的局部和长距离输送的贡献需要进一步研究。     

太湖上游的水文特征及灾害分析

分析了1957～1988年太湖上游主要入湖河道的水位和流量变化规律及其与降水量的关系.基于年径流量,对太湖上游河流每年的丰枯等级进行了评价,讨论了太湖流域的洪涝灾害特征,提出了可根据本文所分析结果进行太湖洪涝灾害预测的结论.     

The 1934 floods in Tabriz, N. W. Iran

The disastrous floods of July 1934 in Tabriz are examined in the context of the history of floodinginthe city, which is crossed by a dry stream bed liable to sudden Inundation by mountain torrents from the southeast. Few details of past events have survived, suggesting that relatively little significance has been attached to them. Typically, flood dykes were inadequately maintained. This neglect, combined with a radical alteration in urban topography after 1925, when broad straight avenues were constructed through the old heart of the city, led to serious losses from flooding twice in 1929 and again in 1934. Enhanced perception of the flood risk finally found expression in the adoption of large scale engineering measures to mitigate future events, including strengthening protective dykes and widening the river channel through the city. These works have reduced vulnerability to flooding from river overflow. No long-term detrimental Impact of the 1934 flood has been observed. Some of the physical and social parameters that have influenced the vulnerability of Tabrizinthe past continue to be present both there and elsewhere in Iran, and they may be characteristic also of other regions with comparable natural environments or in a similar stage of socio-economic development.     

关于悬浮填料生物膜工艺的探讨

通过对市场上悬浮填料产品的调查研究,分析了其材质、结构、形状、物理生化特性,总结了悬浮填料的一些基本特性参数,阐述了其在工程实例中的应用情况,并对当前悬浮填料的开发现状作了介绍,为悬浮填料产品的行业规范制定提供参考。