西藏日太阳总辐射估算模型的优化与时间尺度效应

根据2012～2014年拉萨站点的日太阳辐射观测数据,对3种日太阳总辐射估算模型(左大康、Prescoff和王炳忠等提出的估算模型)的估算结果和实际观测结果进行误差检验分析,结果表明:3种模型都通过了显著性检验,其平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为6.17 MJ/(m~2·d)、6.42 MJ/(m~2·d)和12.31 MJ/(m~2·d),均方根误差(RMSE)分别为1.60 MJ/(m~2·d)、1.65 MJ/(m~2·d)和2.78 MJ/(m~2·d),表明利用地理位置信息和日照时数的左大康估算模型对拉萨日太阳总辐射的估算效果优于Prescoff和王炳忠估算模型。利用左大康估算模型分别估算得到2015年拉萨、那曲和葛尔地区的日太阳总辐射值,并进行模型验证。通过分析拉萨1971～2015年的太阳总辐射变化和周期性特征,研究日太阳总辐射估算模型的时间尺度效应。按照11年和四季两种不同的时间尺度,利用线性回归法对日太阳总辐射估算结果和实际观测结果进行误差和相关性分析,得到经验参数a和b的值与时间尺度有一定关系。11年和四季两种时间尺度除夏季以外,其他时间拟合模型的精度均得到了提高。通过线性回归法得出45年的西藏日太阳总辐射优化估算模型,该模型估算日太阳总辐射的误差小于左大康模型,估算精度较高。     

高空长航时无人机工作环境特性

对世界上具有代表性的长航时无人机的升限和续航时间两个主要性能进行整理和归纳,并对其中两种典型飞机进行了简单介绍。建立在标准大气模型的基础上,忽略地区性、昼行性、季节性的波动和纬度的影响,以海拔高度作为变量,整理了气温、气压、太阳辐射三个环境参数的计算方法。在国内选出涵盖沿海、高原、沙漠、平原等多种地形地貌,以及不同海拔高度的五个地区。对这个五个地区的大气环境和太阳辐射进行调研,以获取具有代表性的典型地面-高空环境特点,并对这五个地区的温度、湿度、辐射在不同高度的数据进行了分析,各环境参数均表现出了明显的周期性和地区差异。     

大型复杂电子系统开展“五性”一体化设计的必要性

本文首先对大型复杂电子系统的特点及"五性"一体化设计的思想进行了阐述,进而结合工程实际,分析了当前"五性"设计存在的问题,提出开展"五性"一体化设计是解决上述问题的根本出路,并提出了相应建议措施,对如何建立"五性"指标体系、综合设计模型、"五性"一体化信息平台进行了一定的阐述。     

增强全民减灾意识的思考

本文首先分析近几十年来全民减灾意识淡化的原因,然后着重提出了增强全民减灾意识的对策建议。     

陕西省关中地区农业水价调整研究

本文通过分析关中地区农业水价现状和问题，认为农业水价低于供水生产成本，从需求价格弹性分析表明，价格对农业用水调节作用大，以此提出了价格杠杆调节关中农业用水的措施。     

Environmental,economic and social costs and benefits of a packaging waste management system: A Portuguese case study

The impact of the management of packaging waste on the environment, economic growth and job creation is analyzed in this paper. This integrated assessment intends to cover a gap in the literature for this type of studies, using the specific case study of the Portuguese packaging waste management system (SIGRE).The net environmental benefits associated with the management of packaging waste, are calculated using the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The results show that, for the categories studied, the impacts associated to SIGRE's various activities are surpassed by the benefits associated to material and energy recovery, with special focus on recycling. For example, in 2011 SIGRE avoided the emission of 116 kt CO₂ equiv. – the equivalent carbon emission of the electricity consumption of 124.000 households in Portugal.The economic impact of SIGRE is evaluated through Input–Output Analysis. It was found that SIGRE's activities also have a significant economic impact. For example, their added value are ranked amongst the upper third of the economic activities with highest multiplier effect at national level: this means that for each Euro of value added generated within SIGRE, 1.25 additional € are added to the rest of the economy (multiplier effect of 2.25).Regarding the social impacts of SIGRE, the number of direct jobs associated with the system is estimated to be more than two thousand and three hundred workers. Out of these, 83% are connected to the management of municipal waste packaging (selective collection and sorting), 15% are connected to the management of non-municipal packaging waste and only 2% are connected to the Sociedade Ponto Verde (SPV, green dot society in English) – the management entity responsible for SIGRE.In general terms, the results obtained provide quantitative support to the EEA (2011) suggestion that moving up the waste hierarchy – from landfilling to recycling – creates jobs and boosts the economy.     

大型自然通风冷却塔环境影响的预测分析研究

大多数内陆核电厂将采用大型自然通风冷却塔作为其二次循环冷却方式,本文基于美国核管会推荐的SACTI程序,给出了该模型的基本原理和框架结构,并以江西彭泽核电厂为例,采用该程序预测分析了该核电厂大型自然通风冷却塔所造成的雾羽和太阳辐射损失的影响。并进一步研究了不同环境风速、相对湿度条件下对冷却塔造成的太阳辐射损失的影响。SACTI模型可以根据厂址逐时气象观测数据,较好地计算可见雾羽的长度、抬升高度和太阳辐射损失,其结果可以作为冷却塔环境影响评价的依据。     

重点生态功能区转移支付对生态产业发展的空间效应——以江西省80个县为例

发展生态产业是重点生态功能区实现高质量跨越式发展的重要途经,而重点生态功能区转移支付是目前为止国家对重点生态功能区唯一的具有直接性、持续性和集中性的生态保护补偿政策。本文在以往研究的基础上,采用空间计量模型探究重点生态功能区转移支付对生态产业发展的影响。以江西省为研究对象,基于2008—2018年研究数据,以县域为研究单元对生态产业发展水平进行测度,并运用空间杜宾模型探究重点生态功能区转移支付对生态产业发展的空间效应。结果表明：生态产业发展在空间上存在显著的正向自相关性,且在江西省境内呈现出西北地区高—高集聚,东南地区低—低集聚的现象;重点生态功能区转移支付的提高不仅会显著促进当地生态产业的发展,还会提高邻近地区的生态产业发展水平。     

Improving collaboration in the implementation of global biodiversity conventions

Eight conventions make up the biodiversity cluster of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) that provide the critical international legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of nature. However, concerns about the rate of implementation of the conventions at the national level have triggered discussions about the effectiveness of these MEAs in halting the loss of biodiversity. Two main concerns have emerged: lack of capacity and resources and lack of coherence in implementing multiple conventions. We focused on the latter and considered the mechanisms by which international conventions are translated into national policy. Specifically, we examined how the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 and the associated Aichi Biodiversity Targets have functioned as a unifying grand plan for biodiversity conservation. This strategic plan has been used to coordinate and align targets to promote and enable more effective implementation across all biodiversity-related conventions. Results of a survey of 139 key stakeholders from 88 countries suggests streamlining across ministries and agencies, improved coordination mechanisms with all relevant stakeholders, and better knowledge sharing between conventions could improve cooperation among biodiversity-related conventions. The roadmap for improving synergies among conventions agreed to at the 13th Convention on Biological Diversity's Conference of Parties in 2016 includes actions such as mechanisms to avoid duplication in national reporting and monitoring on conventions and capacity building related to information and knowledge sharing. We suggest the scientific community can actively engage and contribute to the policy process by establishing a science-policy platform to address knowledge gaps; improving data gathering, reporting, and monitoring; developing indicators that adequately support implementation of national plans and strategies; and providing evidence-based recommendations to policy makers. The latter will be particularly important as 2020 approaches and work to develop a new biodiversity agenda for the next decade is beginning.     

Obstruction of biodiversity conservation by minimum patch size criteria

Minimum patch size criteria for habitat protection reflect the conservation principle that a single large (SL) patch of habitat has higher biodiversity than several small (SS) patches of the same total area (SL > SS). Nonetheless, this principle is often incorrect, and biodiversity conservation requires placing more emphasis on protection of large numbers of small patches (SS > SL). We used a global database reporting the abundances of species across hundreds of patches to assess the SL > SS principle in systems where small patches are much smaller than the typical minimum patch size criteria applied for biodiversity conservation (i.e., ∼85% of patches <100 ha). The 76 metacommunities we examined included 4401 species in 1190 patches. From each metacommunity, we resampled species–area accumulation curves to evaluate how biodiversity responded to habitat existing as a few large patches or as many small patches. Counter to the SL > SS principle and consistent with previous syntheses, species richness accumulated more rapidly when adding several small patches (45.2% SS > SL vs. 19.9% SL > SS) to reach the same cumulative area, even for the very small patches in our data set. Responses of taxa to habitat fragmentation differed, which suggests that when a given total area of habitat is to be protected, overall biodiversity conservation will be most effective if that habitat is composed of as many small patches as possible, plus a few large ones. Because minimum patch size criteria often require larger patches than the small patches we examined, our results suggest that such criteria hinder efforts to protect biodiversity.