Fuzzy risk modeling of process operations in the oil and gas refineries

Operating several assets has resulted in more complexity and so occurrence of some major accidents in the refining industries. The process operations risk factors including failure frequency and the consequence components like employees' safety and environment impacts, operation downtime, direct and indirect cost of operations and maintenance, and mean time to repair should be considered in the analysis of these major accidents in any refinery. Considering all of these factors, the risk based maintenance (RBM) as a proper risk assessment methodology minimizes the risk resulting from asset failures. But, one of the main engineering problems in risk modeling of the complex industries like refineries is uncertainty due to the lack of information. This paper proposes a model for the risk of the process operations in the oil and gas refineries. The fuzzy logic system (FLS) was proposed for risk modeling. The merit of using fuzzy model is to overcome the uncertainty of the RBM components. This approach also can be accounted as a benchmark for future failures. A unified risk number would be obtained to show how the criticality of units is. The case study of a gas plant in an oil refinery is performed to illustrate the application of the proposed model and a comparison between the results of both traditional RBM and fuzzy method is made.For the case study, 26 asset failures were identified. The fuzzy risk results show that 3 failures have semi-critical level and other 23 failures are non-critical. In both traditional and fuzzy RBM methods, some condenser failures had the highest risk number and some pumps were prioritized to have the lowest risk level. The unit with unified risk number less than 40 is in the non-critical conditions. Proposed methodology is also applicable to other industries dealing with process operations risks.     

煤矿应急管理集成信息系统设计

针对目前煤矿企业在应急管理中存在的问题,通过对国内外应急管理技术的研究成果的学习和总结,进行煤矿应急管理信息系统的需求分析,在对应急管理的理论流程、基于案例推理（CBR）等理论进行深入研究的基础上,将人工智能、关键链方法和计划调度相关理论应用到人员管理和应急计划的制定和实施过程中,结合J2EE、SOA、GIS和GPS等技术,实现煤矿应急管理信息系统功能设计与集成设计,并借此推进煤矿企业在应急管理方面的发展,将事前预警与事后响应相结合,降低煤矿突发事件的危害程度。     

建筑工人安全行为习惯的塑造策略与方法

为帮助建筑工人养成良好的安全行为习惯,基于操作性条件反射理论,在开展两轮调查的基础上,分析建筑工人的安全心理和行为特点及其安全行为习惯的特性,提出建筑工人安全行为习惯的塑造策略和方法,设计应用方案并进行评价。结果表明:安全行为习惯具有稳定性、自觉性和自动性;安全行为习惯塑造以低起点、小坡度、抓细节、重坚持、多实践为核心要求,以班组层面的塑造活动为核心任务;安全行为习惯塑造在过程体验和长期效果方面具有优势,但在强制力和针对性方面存在不足。     

The futility of rights‐based humanitarian aid to the Occupied Palestinian Territories

A rights‐based approach (RBA) to humanitarian aid is intrinsic to Norwegian policy and should inform Norwegian aid to the Occupied Palestinian Territories, one of the main receivers of Norwegian aid. However, this is the case only to a limited extent. While Norwegian humanitarian non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) take RBA seriously, and design their projects in accordance with its principles, they are unable to pursue a programme of long‐term structural change. This is because the main duty‐bearer, Israel, is indifferent or hostile to their work, while Norway's foreign policy is given higher priority than following through a rights‐based agenda. The result of this situation is a large, long‐standing aid effort that is unable to provide more than temporary relief in a steadily deteriorating situation. The Palestinian case suggests that RBA in humanitarianism may lead to frustration rather than human liberation when not backed up by political power.     

负载金属改性活性碳纤维的制备及其脱硫性能

以粘胶基活性碳纤维（VACF）为原料，采用浸渍法制备了负载镍、钴、锰、镁等系列金属的粘胶基活性碳纤维（M／VACF），并通过测定试样在77K的氮气吸附等温线对M／VACF比表面积和孔结构进行了表征。考察了M／VACF的脱硫性能，分析了影响其脱硫性能的各种因素。结果表明，M／VACF的比表面积和孔结构不是影响M／VACF脱硫性能的主要因素，负载金属的种类是影响M／VACF脱硫性能的主要因素。     

UNCERTAINTY BASED OPERATION OF LARGE SCALE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS: DEZ AND KAROON EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir operation involves a complex set of human decisions depending upon hydrologic conditions in the supply network including watersheds, lakes, transfer tunnels, and rivers. Water releases from reservoirs are adjusted in an attempt to provide a balanced response to different demands. When a system involves more than one reservoir, computational burdens have been a major obstacle in incorporating uncertainties and variations in supply and demand. A new generation of stochastic dynamic programming was developed in the 1980s and 1990s to incorporate the forecast and demand uncertainties. The Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (BSDP) model and its extension, Demand Driven Stochastic Dynamic Programming (DDSP) model, are among those models. Recently, a Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming model (FSDP) also was developed for a single reservoir to model the errors associated with discretizing the variables using fuzzy set theory. In this study the DDSP and the FSDP models were extended and simplified for a complex system of Dez and Karoon reservoirs in the southwestern part of Iran. The simplified models are called Condensed Demand Driven Stochastic Programming (CDDSP) and Condensed Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming (CFSDP). The optimal operating policies developed by the CDDSP and the CFSDP models were simulated in a classical model and a fuzzy simulation model, respectively. The case study was used to demonstrate the advantages of implementing the proposed algorithm, and the results show the significant value of the proposed fuzzy based algorithm.     

基于风险优先的分级监察研究

本文提出了安全生产分级监察的思路和方法，并进一步论述了安全生产分级监察的内容与特点。将部分工业发达国家的先进安全生产监察经验总结为三种监察方法，即单纯循环法、事故跟进法和风险优先法。通过与安全生产分级监察进行比较后，得出了安全生产分级监察是适合我国安全生产监察现状和安全生产发展需求的新途径的研究结论。     

粘土基多孔陶瓷吸附处理Cu~(2+)废水

文章以粘土为骨料,蛭石为改性剂,通过添加造孔剂法制备了粘土基多孔陶瓷吸附剂,研究了溶液中Cu2+初始浓度、pH值以及蛭石添加量对多孔陶瓷吸附性能的影响。结果表明:多孔陶瓷吸附Cu2+的最佳条件为添加蛭石1%,溶液pH为5;当初始浓度为20~100 mg/L时,Cu2+吸附率达到82%~62%,吸附平衡时间为1.5~6 h;吸附动力学表明多孔陶瓷对Cu2+的吸附大致分为两个阶段;其吸附行为可用Langmuir方程和Freundlich方程来描述。     

Greenhouse gas balances of molasses based ethanol in Nepal

This paper evaluates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) balances in production and use of molasses-based ethanol (EtOH) in Nepal. The total life cycle emissions of EtOH is estimated at 432.5 kgCO_2eq m⁻³ ethanol (i.e. 20.4 gCO_2eq MJ⁻¹). Avoided emissions are 76.6% when conventional gasoline is replaced by molasses derived ethanol. A sensitivity analysis was performed to verify the impact of variations in material and energy flows, and allocation ratios in the GHG balances. Market prices of sugar and molasses, amount of nitrogen-fertilizers used in sugarcane production, and sugarcane yield per hectare turn out to be important parameters for the GHG balances estimation. Sales of the surplus electricity derived from bagasse could reduce emissions by replacing electricity produced in diesel power plants. Scenario analysis on two wastewater processes for treatment of effluents obtained from ethanol conversion has also been carried out. If wastewater generated from ethanol conversion unit is treated in pond stabilization (PS) treatment process, GHG emissions alarmingly increase to a level of 4032 kgCO_2eq m⁻³ ethanol. Results also show that the anaerobic digestion process (ADP) and biogas recovery without leakages can significantly avoid GHG emissions, and improve the overall emissions balance of EtOH in Nepal. At a 10% biogas leakage, life cycle emissions is 1038 kgCO_2eq m⁻³ ethanol which corresponds to 44% avoided emissions compared to gasoline. On the other hand, total emissions surpass the level of its counterpart (i.e. gasoline) when the leakage of biogas exceeds 23.4%.     

A new photon kinetic-measure based on the kinetics of electron-hole pairs in photodegradation of textile wastewater using the UV-H2O2FS-TiO2 process

Actual textile wastewater and synthesized wastewater containing various textile dyes were photocatalytic degraded by the UVH2O2Fs-TiO2 process in an aimular-flow photocatalytic reactor. In this process, a photon kinetic-measure was adopted to obtain constant rates of dyes decomposition. It was theorized that, by illumination at different UV frequencies, the electrons within the semiconductor were excited from the valence band to the conduction band, yielding the formation of electron-hole pairs which are the pre-requisites for photocatalysis. CPT （critical photonic time） exposure required to cause 90% of vibrations between the double and single bonds along the molecular chain of the dyes to be oxidized, was taken to measure the photocatalytic activities. The CPTs varied with the frequencies of the UV spectral areas. The derivatization of CPT from the first-order kinetic law was presented.