中国人口集疏格局与形成机制研究

人口集聚和疏散是人口空间分布格局最直观和最集中的体现,基于人口集聚度的中国人口集疏的空间格局和形成机制的研究,有助于准确把握中国人口空间分布的基本脉络,具有重要的学术价值和实践意义。研究采用了人口集聚度分级评价的方法,依据人口集聚度的不同,将各个地区划分为不同等级的人口集聚区,并对其分别讨论。在此基础上,结合中国人口分布格局、自然条件的空间分布格局、人居环境自然适宜性评价结果以及经济发展格局和城市化格局,对中国的人口集疏的空间格局进行了归纳,并进一步对相应的形成机制进行了探讨,得出了我国人口分布的空间不平衡日益加剧,并呈现沿海、沿江、沿线集聚的态势的基本结论,并对我国人口分布集疏格局的形成进行了探讨,提出了自然因素奠定我国人口分布的基本格局,而经济发展不平衡与城市化成为人口集聚的动力的观点。     

REGIONAL FLOOD EQUATIONS FOR THE PROVINCES OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT: When nonparametric frequency analysis was performed on 183 stations from Ontario and Quebec, unimodal and multimodal maximum annual flood density functions were discovered. In order to determine generating mechanisms, a monthly partitioning of the annual maximum floods was undertaken. The timing of the floods revealed that the unimodal distributions reflected a single flood generating mechanism while the multi-modal densities reflected two or more mechanisms. Based on the division of the flood series by mechanisms, nine homogeneous regions were delineated. L-moment distributional homogeneity tests along with smaller standard errors for the regional equations supported the delineation.     

THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE OF RESIDENTIAL CONSUMERS ON WATER RATES1

ABSTRACT: The regulatory process such as that for water rates can be viewed as a bargaining process between regulators, utility management, and consumers. This bargaining process involves both political and economic influences. In an attempt to empirically verify that utility rates are a product of both economic and political factors, a sample of publicly-owned water utilities was subjected to regression analysis. As expected, cost and cost-related factors were positive and significant determinants of residential water rates. Using an admittedly imperfect measure of residential user political influence, there was evidence that increased political activity results in lower water rates. Furthermore, the political influence and water rate linkage is more evident in small water utilities than in larger suppliers.     

Risk assessment and binding mechanisms of potentially toxic metals in sediments from different water levels in a coastal wetland

The excessive accumulation of potentially toxic metals (Pb and Cd) in coastal wetlands is among the main factors threatening wetland ecosystems. However, the effects of water table depth (WTD) on the risk and binding mechanisms of potentially toxic metals in sediments remain unclear. Here, sediments from different WTD obtained from a typical coastal wetland were evaluated using a newly developed strategy based on chemical extraction methods coupled with high-resolution spectroscopy. Our findings indicated that the WTD of the coastal wetland fluctuates frequently and the average enrichment factor for Pb was categorized as minor, whereas Cd enrichment was categorized as moderate. High-resolution spectroscopy techniques also demonstrated that organic functional groups and partly inorganic compounds (e.g., Fe-O/Si-O) played a vital role in the binding of Pb and Cd to surface sediments. Additionally, mineral components rather than organic groups were mainly bound to these metals in the bottom sediments. Collectively, our findings provide key insights into the potential health effects and binding characteristics of potentially toxic metals in sediments, as well as their dynamic behavior under varying sediment depths at a microscale.     

《京都》15年后:分阶段减排政策与“绿色悖论”问题

低碳经济的政策分析,通常囿于单一国家层面的局部均衡结果,较少考虑到全球整体行动的外部影响,但从《联合国气候变化框架公约》建立以来的全球一致减排行动,却产生了一些意料之外的负面效果。本文通过梳理《京都议定书》签订以来,全球低碳经济合作中遇到的新挑战,以及碳交易市场的建设状况,采用制度分析与新古典框架下的市场均衡分析方法,讨论了全球一致减排行动所触发的"绿色悖论"问题。研究发现,造成"绿色悖论"的主要原因,一方面是由于国际合作存在制度设计上的缺陷,《京都议定书》及其关键性的附件一,将重点放在如何限制发达工业国的减排设计上,但却忽视了发展中国家在协议期内有可能出现的增排问题,以及发达国家向发展中国家污染转移的碳泄漏等问题;另一方面,当对不可再生资源的使用征税、以及对其替代品进行补贴时,将会导致在当前期对于化石能源的加速开采,并可能导致对同时期的化石燃料替代品的其他可再生资源的开采速度也大幅度加快,造成了在双重加速开采下的全球绿色福利损失以及CO2排放量的急剧升高,化石能源消费与温室气体排放面临到比协议签署前更为严峻,甚至与全球合作减排框架的设计初衷相悖的结果。研究结果表明,非全局性的减排公约和分阶段的减排政策,是造成"绿色悖论"现象的重要条件,缺少了大量发展中国家和一些重要工业国的缔约,使得负面的环境外部性难以克服;同时,减排任务和责任有所区别的分阶段设计,会把在未来行动期内可预见到的更高地化石能源使用成本转嫁到当前的行动期,造成短时间内资源与环境的迅速破坏。但本文的研究也表明,社会最优经济与对可再生能源进行补贴是克服"绿色悖论"现象的两条可行路径,且需要有与其相匹配的政府政策的支持。由此,本文的主要政策建议是,中国需要加强在国际气候公约中的影响力,提升自身话语权;以碳税政策作为发展低碳经济制度设计的主要政策工具;加快技术进步、提高能源使用效率,对于可再生能源研发进行补贴;根据国情不断优化碳税税率,并适时调整与其相匹配的新能源补贴等相关政策。     

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of perfluoroalkyl substances in the human body

Currently, there are limited data on the levels of perfluoroalkyl substances other than perfluorooctane sulfonic acid and perfluorooctanoic acid in the human body. Most of this information has been extracted from biological monitoring of plasma while the occurrence of perfluoroalkyl substances in other human tissues is rarely studied. The objective of the present study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to assess the concentration of perfluoroalkyl substances in human tissues, based on an existing model previously validated for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid and perfluorooctanoic acid. Experimental data on concentrations of perfluoroalkyl substances in human tissues from individuals in Tarragona County (Catalonia, Spain) were used to estimate the values of some distribution and elimination parameters needed for the simulation. No significant correlations were found between these parameters and the chain lengths. The model was finally validated for five perfluoroalkyl substances.     

蒙脱土原位生长MoS2复合材料光催化降解罗丹明B的机理研究

通过在Na⁺-MMT表面生长MoS₂来提高窄带隙半导体光生电子分离速率及稳定性.利用阳离子填充法及水热法成功制备了复合光催化剂Na⁺-MMT/MoS₂,并通过FT-IR、SEM、TEM、Raman、XRD、TG、XPS、UV-DRS和ESR等表征进一步证明了材料的成功负载及光、电化学性能. 同时,以有机染料罗丹明B为待降解染料来评价光催化剂的催化性能,发现其在80 min可有效降解罗丹明B,降解率达96%.经过5次循环使用后,Na⁺-MMT/MoS₂复合光催化剂仍具有较好的光催化性能.因此,利用MMT的表面电负性及稳定的片层结构负载MoS₂,可形成光生电子迁移通道进一步提高电荷迁移速率及光催化剂的稳定性.本研究可为黏土材料调控窄带隙半导体制备环境友好型光催化剂提供新思路.     

长江口沿岸碎波带刀鲚仔稚鱼摄食习性与浮游动物分布的相关性研究

为探明长江口沿岸碎波带浮游动物的分布与刀鲚仔稚鱼摄食的关系,2006年7~12月每月大潮期间在长江口沿岸碎波带设置13个站位点,用浮游Ⅰ型生物网(口径30 cm,网目0.2 mm)在表层拖曳采集浮游动物78次,采集到浮游动物72种,平均密度 3 278.95 个/网;用小型拖网(1 m×4 m,网目1 mm)拖曳234次,采集到刀鲚仔稚鱼 37 170 尾,平均密度158.85尾/网。通过胃含物分析共鉴定刀鲚仔稚鱼饵料生物15种(类)(浮游动物11种,浮游幼体4类),平均摄食密度1.306个/尾。研究结果表明:前弯曲期仔鱼偏好摄食哲水蚤、剑水蚤和枝角类;弯曲期仔鱼偏好摄食猛水蚤和桡足类桡足幼体;后弯曲期仔鱼除偏好摄食桡足类幼体以外,也偏好摄食游泳能力较强的糠虾;稚鱼对糠虾有极强的偏好。水温和盐度对刀鲚仔稚鱼的摄食量影响较小;浮游动物分布并不直接影响刀鲚仔稚鱼分布,相关性较小。     

Theoretical insights into the degradation mechanisms, kinetics and eco-toxicity of oxcarbazepine initiated by OH radicals in aqueous environments

As an anticonvulsant, oxcarbazepine (OXC) has attracted considerable attention for its potential threat to aquatic organisms. Density functional theory has been used to study the mechanisms and kinetics of OXC degradation initiated by OH radicals in aqueous environment. A total of fourteen OH-addition pathways were investigated, and the addition to the C8 position of the right benzene ring was the most vulnerable pathway, resulting in the intermediate IM8. The H-abstraction reactions initiated by OH radicals were also explored, where the extraction site of the methylene group (C14) on the seven-member carbon heterocyclic ring was found to be the optimal path. The calculations show that the total rate constant of OXC with OH radicals is 9.47 × 10⁹ (mol/L)⁻¹sec⁻¹, and the half-life time is 7.32 s at 298 K with the [·OH] of 10⁻¹¹ mol/L. Moreover, the branch ratio values revealed that OH-addition (89.58%) shows more advantageous than H-abstraction (10.42%). To further understand the potential eco-toxicity of OXC and its transformation products to aquatic organisms, acute toxicity and chronic toxicity were evaluated using ECOSAR software. The toxicity assessment revealed that most degradation products such as OXC-2OH, OXC-4OH, OXC-1O-1OOH, and OXC-1OH' are innoxious to fish and daphnia. Conversely, green algae are more sensitive to these compounds. This study can provide an extensive investigation into the degradation of OXC by OH radicals and enrich the understanding of the aquatic oxidation processes of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs).     

Fe(VI)/CaO2双氧化体系降解水环境中的DMP

研究了高铁酸盐（Fe（VI））/过氧化钙（CaO₂）联合处理对邻苯二甲酸二甲酯（DMP）的降解性能及机理,分析了共存离子的影响.基于响应面方法中的Box-Behnken实验设计进行了多因素实验,采用二次多项式和逐步回归法拟合了DMP去除率与Fe（VI）投加量、CaO₂投加量和反应时间之间的关系,对实验条件进行了优化分析.结果表明,在初始pH值为中性条件下,Fe（VI）/CaO₂可以有效去除DMP,降解过程符合准一级动力学模型.当Fe（VI）/CaO₂/DMP物质的量比为1.1/4.4/1时,模型预测DMP最大降解率为95.57%,和验证实验得出的降解率90.14%相近,表明该响应面模型具有较好的模拟和预测能力.HCO₃^-和Mg²⁺对DMP的降解有一定抑制作用.自由基清除实验结果显示,羟基自由基（HO·）和超氧自由基（O₂^-·）对DMP的降解具有重要贡献,表明Fe（VI）和CaO₂可形成类芬顿试剂协同降解污染物.DMP的主要降解途径包括酯基水解、侧链氧化和苯环的羟基化;主要降解产物为邻苯二甲酸单甲酯,2,5-二羟基苯甲酸,间苯二甲酸,草酸等.