纳米银与微塑料在模拟垃圾填埋柱中的共迁移特征

以模拟垃圾填埋柱和人工配制渗滤液,探讨了纳米银（AgNPs）和微塑料（MPs）在垃圾填埋场中的迁移行为.结果发现,无论是单体系还是二元体系,随着填埋时间增长,AgNPs和MPs颗粒在渗滤液中稳定性增强,在填埋场中迁移能力增大,可能导致填埋中晚期有更多的污染颗粒随渗滤液流出填埋场.当AgNPs和MPs共存时,相对于单体系促进了AgNPs的迁移而轻微地抑制了MPs的迁移.结合DLVO理论和胶体过滤理论分析,一方面是由于流动性更高的MPs可作为AgNPs的载体,同时与AgNPs竞争固相介质上的吸附位点,从而促进AgNPs的迁移.另一方面,共存的AgNPs降低了MPs颗粒的表面负电荷使其稳定性减弱,并通过预沉积在固相介质上提供额外的MPs沉积位点,从而抑制MPs的迁移.     

An extension of the fuzzy improved risk graph and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process for determination of chemical complex safety integrity levels

The risk graph (RG) is widely used to evaluate the safety integrity level (SIL) of safety instrument systems (SIS). However, subjective opinion-based conventional RGs cannot provide successful results for the problems of risk parameters, such as shortages or lack of data; hence, the output of a conventional approach lacks sufficient reliability. We introduced the fuzzy improved risk graph (FIRG), an extension of fuzzy set theory, to deal with possible ambiguities during SIL study and increase the reliability of conventional RGs. In the present study, the levels of consequences defined as linguistic terms were converted into qualitative intervals; therefore, by correlating the proposed approach with experts’ opinions and attributing weight factors, a desired SIL value was obtained. The output of this new approach can be compared directly with quantitative risk assessment techniques to improve the safety performance of industrial systems.     

铁路职工健康管理模式探讨

从专业健康管理人员、健康管理标准化、健康理念及健康管理组织结构等方面概述目前铁路开展健康管理面临的主要问题,提出建立铁路职工健康管理模式的对策和建议,即深化健康管理理念、强化健康信息平台健康管理功能、建立标准化健康管理模式和打造全方位健康管理团队,通过标准化、信息化健康体检数据管理,建立全链条、闭环式铁路职工健康管理模式,对提升铁路职工健康水平具有积极意义。     

基于多因素耦合的航空运输系统脆弱性分析*

为分析航空运输系统脆弱性，提升航空运输系统安全水平。基于脆弱性理论，针对航空运输系统运行特点，提出航空运输系统脆弱性概念，并归纳分析航空运输系统安全影响因素；采用触发器原理建立基于航空运输系统脆弱性影响因素耦合的事故形成机理模型，选取1973—2019年的120起全球重大航空事故为数据基础，构建可量化航空运输系统脆弱性影响因素耦合关系的N-K模型。结果表明:影响航空运输系统耦合关系的关键因素为管理因素，有针对性地加强航空运输系统安全脆弱性关键耦合因素的管控，能更好地提高航空运输系统安全水平。     

基于AHP-证据理论的综合管廊火灾安全评价

为了进行综合管廊火灾安全评价,提出了基于AHP-证据理论的评价模型。采用AHP法得出综合管廊火灾安全评价体系中各因素的权重,再引入D-S证据理论提高评价的可信度。从"人、机、环、管"四大方面归纳出影响综合管廊火灾安全的潜在影响因素并分级,建立综合管廊火灾安全评价指标体系;通过AHP法得出体系中各因素的权重,再通过信任函数和似然函数的计算得到量化评价结果;最后将多个评价结果进行融合以提高最终评价结果的可信度,并且评判火灾安全等级。对某综合管廊的实例分析表明,当不同专家给出的评价结果有差异时,依据证据理论将不同的证据进行融合,能有效提高综合管廊火灾安全评价的可信度,最终得到可靠的评价结果。通过分析得出设备因素对综合管廊火灾安全评价体系影响最大。     

Assessing the Potential to Restore Historic Grazing Ecosystems with Tortoise Ecological Replacements

The extinction of large herbivores, often keystone species, can dramatically modify plant communities and impose key biotic thresholds that may prevent an ecosystem returning to its previous state and threaten native biodiversity. A potentially innovative, yet controversial, landscape‐based long‐term restoration approach is to replace missing plant‐herbivore interactions with non‐native herbivores. Aldabran giant (Aldabrachelys gigantea) and Madagascan radiated (Astrochelys radiata) tortoises, taxonomically and functionally similar to the extinct Mauritian giant tortoises (Cylindraspis spp.), were introduced to Round Island, Mauritius, in 2007 to control the non‐native plants that were threatening persistence of native species. We monitored the response of the plant community to tortoise grazing for 11 months in enclosures before the tortoises were released and, compared the cost of using tortoises as weeders with the cost of using manual labor. At the end of this period, plant biomass; vegetation height and cover; and adult, seedling, flower, and seed abundance were 3–136 times greater in adjacent control plots than in the tortoise enclosures. After their release, the free‐roaming tortoises grazed on most non‐native plants and significantly reduced vegetation cover, height, and seed production, reflecting findings from the enclosure study. The tortoises generally did not eat native species, although they consumed those native species that increased in abundance following the eradication of mammalian herbivores. Our results suggest that introduced non‐native tortoises are a more cost‐effective approach to control non‐native vegetation than manual weeding. Numerous long‐term outcomes (e.g., change in species composition and soil seed bank) are possible following tortoise releases. Monitoring and adaptive management are needed to ensure that the replacement herbivores promote the recovery of native plants. Estudiando el Potencial para Restaurar Ecosistemas Históricos de Forrajeo con Reemplazos Ecológicos de Tortugas Terrestres     

Incorporating Uncertainty of Management Costs in Sensitivity Analyses of Matrix Population Models

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental‐management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population‐management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost‐efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making.     

Using ecological modernisation theory to account for the evolution of the zero-carbon homes agenda in England

Despite early successes, the ‘zero-carbon homes’ agenda in England is being wound down. Ecological modernisation theory, which focuses on the way in which political, economic, and social forces interact with one other in the provision of environmental goods and services, is used to explain this. Existing literature on zero-carbon homes is fragmented, with scholars focusing on a range of social, economic, or political explanations. Ecological modernisation theory reconciles these various strands to produce a nuanced explanation for this agenda’s evolution. An ambitious but poorly defined legislative approach placed a burden on house-builders to meet compliance costs associated with zero-carbon, but framing sustainability economistically also led to considerable uncertainty. The 2008 financial crisis, the politicisation of housing, and the election of a government with a deregulatory mandate influenced the resilience of the policy agenda as private-sector actors exploited the uncertainty and political will in order to evade their policy burdens.     

矿井突水水源识别的RS-LSSVM模型

为了对矿井突水水源进行准确、高效的判别,综合考虑水化学特征,选取Ca~(2+),Mg~(2+),K~++Na~+,HCO-3,SO2-4,Cl~-和总硬度7个指标的质量浓度(mg/L)作为矿井突水水源的最初判别指标。利用粗糙集(RS)理论的属性约简来筛选水化学特征指标,用以作为水源识别的核心判别指标,建立基于RS的矿井突水水源识别的最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型。选用约简处理后的13组煤矿数据对模型进行训练,再用训练好的模型对另外12组突水数据进行水源判别,并与未进行属性约简的LSSVM模型及Fisher判别分析法、随机森林方法进行对比。结果表明,利用属性约简方法可以很好地排除原始数据中的冗余信息干扰,因而能有效判别矿井突水水源,使矿井突水水源模型的误判率降低至0;而且指标约简过程可以降低LSSVM运算的复杂度,也能够提高判别效率。     

Clumsiness and elegance in environmental management: applying cultural theory to the history of whaling

The global whaling debate is one of the most well-known environmental disputes; despite the continued moratorium, both whaling and conflict continue. This endless discord has been criticised as deleterious to whale conservation and as imperialistic towards whaling communities. The history of the whaling debate is examined through the lens of cultural theory (CT). CT argues that there is productive potential in respectful interaction between different perspectives on an environmental issue. Using CT, modern whaling past and present is reconstructed, tracking how different actors have come to prominence, altering the nature of the policy landscape through their actions. Since the onset of modern whaling, whales and whaling practice have been conceived in narrow terms, depending on the dominance of particular actors on either side of the debate. Proposed solutions to the impasse are assessed according to the maxims of CT.