A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from discrete choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to be undefined. This occurs because the cost parameter's standard error implies some possibility the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the (negative) cost variable's coefficient using an exponential transformation to enforce the theoretically correct positive coefficient. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved.     

Using environmental and geographic data to optimize ex situ collections and preserve evolutionary potential

Maintenance of biodiversity through seed banks and botanical gardens, where the wealth of species’ genetic variation may be preserved ex situ, is a major goal of conservation. However, challenges can persist in optimizing ex situ collections if trade-offs exist among cost, effort, and conserving species evolutionary potential, particularly when genetic data are not available. We evaluated the genetic consequences of population preservation informed by geographic (isolation by distance [IBD]) and environmental (isolation by environment [IBE]) distance for ex situ collections for which population provenance is available. We used 19 genetic and genomic data sets from 15 plant species to assess the proportion of population genetic differentiation explained by geographic and environmental factors and to simulate ex situ collections prioritizing source populations based on pairwise geographic distance, environmental distance, or both. Specifically, we tested the impact prioritizing sampling based on these distances may have on the capture of neutral, functional, or putatively adaptive genetic diversity and differentiation. Individually, IBD and IBE explained limited population genetic differences across all 3 genetic marker classes (IBD, 10–16%; IBE, 1–5.5%). Together, they explained a substantial proportion of population genetic differences for functional (45%) and adaptive (71%) variation. Simulated ex situ collections revealed that inclusion of IBD, IBE, or both increased allelic diversity and genetic differentiation captured among populations, particularly for loci that may be important for adaptation. Thus, prioritizing population collections based on environmental and geographic distance data can optimize genetic variation captured ex situ. For the vast majority of plant species for which there is no genetic information, these data are invaluable to conservation because they can guide preservation of genetic variation needed to maintain evolutionary potential within collections.     

几个菜心品种硝酸盐累积差异的研究

通过对7个菜心品种在2种氮源形态下进行水培试验,以及对植株和吸收液的分析测试,探讨菜心品种间的硝酸盐累积、氮素营养特性及养分吸收的差异,为制定硝酸盐调控措施和选育低硝酸盐菜心品种提供依据。     

Assessment of patch quality by ladybirds: relative response to conspecific and heterospecific larval tracks a consequence of habitat similarity?

Summary. Aphid colonies can reach high levels of abundance but last for short periods of time. The larvae of aphidophagous ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) that feed on these colonies might therefore suffer from starvation, which favours the occurrence of cannibalism and intraguild predation. Thus, the assessment of patch quality becomes crucial and it has been shown that female ladybirds refrain from laying eggs in the presence of an oviposition deterring semiochemical deposited by their larvae. Adalia bipunctata (L.), Adalia decempunctata (L.) and Coccinella septempunctata L. are 3 sympatric species of ladybirds, which can co-occur in aphid colonies. As a consequence, their eggs and larvae are under threat, not only from cannibalism but also intraguild predation. Females should, therefore, also use the tracks deposited by heterospecific larvae to assess the quality of aphid colonies as oviposition sites. The expectation is that: 1- the strength of the reaction to each other’s larval tracks should be correlated with percentage habitat overlap and that 2- the reaction to conspecific larval tracks should be stronger than to heterospecific tracks. In order to test these hypotheses, females’ oviposition behaviour was analysed and a chemical analysis of the tracks of their larvae undertaken. The results show that oviposition behaviour is not related to habitat overlap. Both species of Adalia react to tracks of their own larvae and those of C. septempunctata, but A. decempunctata reacted more strongly than A. bipunctata. C. septempunctata reacted very slightly to its own tracks but not to those of either species of Adalia. The larval tracks are mainly composed of alkanes. Those of the two species of Adalia are qualitatively 100% similar and 60% so when the quantitative results are compared. They are, however, only 24–29% similar to those of Coccinella septempunctata.     

哈尔滨市松花江段水质自然净化机理分析与水环境保护策略

河流水体受污染后，在自然环境因素的影响下由各种物理、化学及生物作用能得到一定的净化。哈尔滨市松花江段河流水质净化作用主要包括稀释、吸附、江底沉积物的机械过滤与吸附和絮凝沉淀作用。哈尔滨市松花江断面正处于河流侵蚀与堆积交替动态平衡中，可不断提供新的活性表面，使河底沉积物的净化作用持久不衰。该特殊的地质条件是本段河流保持较强净化作用的关键，妥善利用水环境净化能力是一种经济有效的水污染控制手段。     

A nonparametric procedure for analyzing repeated measures of spatially correlated data

Many agricultural, biological, and environmental studies involve detecting temporal changes of a response variable, based on data observed at sampling sites in a spatial region and repeatedly over several time points. That is, data are repeated measures over time and are potentially correlated across space. The traditional repeated-measures analysis allows for time dependence but assumes that the observations at different sampling sites are mutually independent, which may not be suitable for field data that are correlated across space. In this paper, a nonparametric large-sample inference procedure is developed to assess the time effects while accounting for the spatial dependence using a block bootstrap. For illustration, the methodology is applied to describe the population changes of root-lesion nematodes over time in a production field in Wisconsin.     

沂沭断裂带垂直形变特征与异常分析

利用跨断层水准测量资料,结合长水准测量成果,重点分析了沂沭断裂带及其附近地区垂直形变特征及本区中强地震前异常形态。结果表明：沂沭带附近的地壳形变明显受新构造活动的控制,断层的最大垂直运动速率为０５０ｍｍ／ａ,沂沭带断层垂直运动平均速率合成值约为０３４ｍｍ／ａ,现今总体活动水平较低;沂沭带北段及北西向断裂近期呈反向运动,南段呈继承性构造运动,部分测点在本区中等及中强地震前异常较典型,主要异常形态为“Ｕ”或“Ｎ”型。     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

Use of Airborne Thermal Imagery to Detect and Monitor Inshore Oil Spill Residues During Darkness Hours

/ Trials were conducted using an airborne video system operating in the visible, near-infrared, and thermal wavelengths to detect two known oil spill releases during darkness at a distance of 10 nautical miles from the shore in St. Vincent's Gulf, South Australia. The oil spills consisted of two 20-liter samples released at 2-h intervals, one sample consisted of paraffinic neutral material and the other of automotive diesel oil. A tracking buoy was sent overboard in conjunction with the release of sample 1, and its movement monitored by satellite relay. Both oil residues were overflown by a light aircraft equipped with thermal, visible, and infrared imagers at a period of approximately 1 h after the release of the second oil residue. Trajectories of the oil residue releases were also modeled and the results compared to those obtained by the airborne video and the tracking buoy. Airborne imagery in the thermal wavelengths successfully located and mapped both oil residue samples during nighttime conditions. Results from the trial suggest that the most advantageous technique would be the combined use of the tracking beacon to obtain an approximate location of the oil spill and the airborne imagery to ascertain its extent and characteristics.KEY WORDS: Airborne video; Thermal imagery; Global positioning; Oil-spill monitoring; Tracking beacon