热带增宽及其对中国东部亚热带森林植被的影响

全球气候变暖已是不争的事实,现今气候变暖的趋势已由每百年（1901--2000）增加0．6℃的记录升高为0．74℃（1906—2005）。其中高纬度地区增温特别显著,成为世界关注的热点。与之对比,热带地区的气候变化以及热带森林对它的反应报道甚少。事实上,自1970s中期以来,热带温度是每lO年升高0．26oC;同时气候模型预测到本世纪末热带地区温度将上升2．1-4．5℃。这些预测是有根据的,但究竟不是直接的证据。因此,本文综合了许多专家对热带地球物理学和大气层特性的多年观测、分析和研究的成果,其结论认为：至少自1979年以来许多热带大气层固有的特征发生变化并向地球极地推进和位移,这些根据是：（1）热带高空的哈德利环流增强并向极地扩展;（21位于热带边缘的亚热带射流向极地移动;（3）热带亚热带对流层顶高度和位置的变化;（4）热带高空平流层臭氧柱总量浓度的变化。据上述特征的变化证明数十年来热带向极地增宽纬度2°～5°（～8°）,一般确认为2．5°。由于热带增宽的驱动,广东50年的气温记录表明气候持续变暖,按增暖趋势推算,预估到2020年,现在的雷州半岛南部可能变成中热带;广东东南沿海将由目前的南亚热带变为北热带（占全省面积约1／3）;其余大部分地区为南亚热带;中亚热带基本上将退出广东（仅剩下东北角一偶）。此预测意味着南岭地区将成为南亚热带的边缘地。     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

Quantitative assessment in safety reports of the consequences from the detonation of solid explosives

Safety reports are mandatory documents in member states of European Union whenever any threshold limits of amounts of either stored or processed hazardous substances are exceeded. After a short introduction to EU Seveso Directives on major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances and to the transposition and implementation by member states, with a brief comment on last 2012/18/EU Directive (also known as Seveso III directive), the paper focuses on drafting of safety reports for industrial activities involving solid explosives. Specifically, the quantitative assessment of consequences from detonation is tackled respect to the side-on overpressure and the debris production. Both direct and inverse problems are illustrated to determine respectively the overpressure value at a given distance, and the explosive amount that allows respecting the regulations. Their solution is based on either analytic or numerical techniques and being based on recent scientific publications on the matter either evaluates or zeroes nonlinear algebraic equations. The availability of these equations avoids grounding the consequences assessment on diagrams and nomograms that otherwise would lead to interpretation and usage errors besides avoiding the automatic solution of the inverse problem. The paper focuses also on details such as embankment, crater, munitions, rocket propellant, building structure, and wall material that, at different levels, play a role in the assessment of detonation consequences. A discussion on debris formation, the available literature, and the evaluation of the impact probability of fragments on both fixed and moving targets closes the paper.     

The impact of implementation of the requirements of Standard No. OHSAS 18001:2007 to reduce the number of injuries at work and financial costs in the Republic of Croatia

This article contains the results of research into the impact of implementation of the requirements mentioned in Standard No. OHSAS 18001:2007 to reduce the number of injuries at work and the financial costs incurred in this way. The study was conducted on a determined sample by a written questionnaire survey method in the Republic of Croatia. The objective of the empirical research is to determine the impact of implementation of the requirements of Standard No. OHSAS 18001:2007 to reduce the number of injuries at work and financial costs in Croatia in business organizations that implement these requirements. To provide a broader picture, the research included the collection and analysis of data on the impact of the Standard No. OHSAS 18001:2007 on accidents and fatalities at work. Research findings are based on the analysis of performed statistical data where correlation and regression analysis has been applied.     

Byproduct production of minor metals: Threat or opportunity for the development of clean technologies? The PV sector as an illustration

Today, the fight against global warming and the coming hydrocarbon exhaustion involve a drastic increase of clean energies. These technologies resort to many minor metals which are byproduct of major metals. We will take the definition of Hagelüken and Mesker (2010, Complex Life Cycles of Precious and Special Metals. In: Edition Thomas E. Graedel, Ester van der Voet (Eds.), Strüngmann Forum Report, Linkages of Sustainability, MIT Press) to show precisely what minor metals are: “[they are] metals that have relatively low production or usage, which occur in low ore concentrations, are regarded as rare, or are not traded at major public exchanges”. We will analyze the byproduct status affecting almost each minor metal in order to determine if the link with the metal main product can involve a threat for clean technology development. This paper will also deal with the theory and implications of the relationship between the byproduct and the main-product and then check it with empirical data. Until now, byproduct metal production and its variations seem relatively independent from major metal production thanks to the non-saturation of potential supply. By 2050, photovoltaic solar development should not lead to the saturation of potential supply.     

The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA) sample of mining and the environment in Turkish legislation

As advancing technology and increasing demands for natural resources continue to mount pressure on the environment, environmental conservation and sustainable management have become ever more important. Individual countries have been increasingly taking action to reduce environmental destruction caused by human activities in an attempt to find a balance in between the necessary exploitation of resources and environmental conservation. In Turkey, the struggle between environmental conservation and mining activities is set within the legal context, with the requisite legal regulations (which describe various procedures) in the midst of being updated or renewed. The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA), beginning by discussing the main legal regulations of environmental conservation in relation to mining activities, defines basic environmental components which form the basis of environmental conservation in relation to mining, and analyzes the impact of mining on each component. The analysis (LERA) finishes with an evaluation of the components as they currently stand and makes some suggestions for the improvement of insufficient regulations.     

Dynamics of global oil prices,exchange rate and precious metal prices in India

This study examines cointegration and Granger causality among global oil prices, precious metal (Gold, Platinum and Silver) prices and Indian Rupee–US Dollar exchange rate using daily data spanning from 2nd January 2009 to 30th December 2011. ARDL bounds tests indicate that the series are cointegrated. Toda–Yamamoto version of Granger causality has been employed to establish the causation amongst the variables. The study also examines generalized error variance decomposition of variables due to various shocks in the system. Such information provides insight into the transmission links between the global oil market and the Indian precious metals and foreign exchange market. These have the potential for significant impact in further research, portfolio management and central bank policy design.     

Natural resources,governance and institutional quality: The role of resource funds

This paper investigates the relationship between resource funds, governance and institutional quality in resource-rich countries. The study is motivated by the relatively recent and inconclusive debate on resource funds and on their role in the addressing of the “resource curse”. The estimation results suggest that resource funds may be associated with governance and institutional quality improvements. The analysis complements the debate on the tools of addressing the “resource curse” and on the determinants of governance and institutional quality. The findings remain important for their policy implications. The estimation results suggest that resource funds may prove useful tools in the hands of the policy makers in the attempt to address governance and institutional quality deterioration induced by resource abundance.     

氮沉降对陆地生态系统土壤有机碳含量影响的Meta分析

研究已证实大气氮沉降的增加显著影响了土壤有机碳的含量,然而其变化幅度在不同的实验样地具有较大的差异.基于在我国开展的49个模拟氮沉降野外实验的408组数据,利用Meta分析、Meta回归和线性回归等方法系统研究了样地气候、土壤属性以及氮素施用参数对施氮后土壤有机碳含量的影响.结果表明,样地的年均温（MAT）和年均降水量（MAP）与施氮后土壤有机碳含量变化幅度显著正相关（P<0.05）.在MAT或MAP较低（MAT<3℃,MAP<500 mm）的样地中,施氮后土壤有机碳含量显著下降;而在MAT或MAP较高（MAT>3℃,MAP>500 mm）的样地中,施氮后土壤有机碳含量则显著升高.土壤属性方面,在C：N较高（>15）或酸性（pH<6.5）土壤中,施氮后土壤有机碳积累明显（P<0.05）;而在C：N较低（≤15）以及中性或碱性（pH≥6.5）土壤中,施氮后土壤有机碳变化不明显（P >0.05）.此外,施氮后草原生态系统土壤有机碳含量明显下降（-5.34%）;而湿地生态系统土壤有机碳含量变化不明显;森林生态系统土壤有机碳表现出明显积累（10.52%）,特别是阔叶林生态系统（13.10%）.所有的因子中,土壤C：N是影响施氮后土壤有机碳变化幅度的主导因子.在施氮类型方面,施加硝酸铵或尿素后土壤有机碳含量显著升高,而施加硝态氮对其影响不显著.综上所述,在精确评估、预测和分析氮沉降对土壤有机碳含量的影响时,应综合考虑样地的气候、土壤属性以及氮素施用参数等因素对实验结果的影响.