An uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system for open pit mining cut-off grade strategy selection

Cut-off grade strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economical, and environmental issues in relation to the exploitation of a mineral resource. Despite the simple definition of cut-off grade, the COGS problem is one of the complex and complicated problems in the mine planning process. From the optimization point of view, the COGS with an objective of maximizing the present value of future cash flows is a non-linear and a non-convex problem that even in its deterministic form can be solved using approximate optimization methods. This optimization problem will also be more complex and complicated under uncertainty conditions. This paper proposes an uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system to investigate the problem of COGS selection considering metal price and geological uncertainties. The proposed system aims at selection of the best COGS among technically feasible alternative COGSs under uncertainty circumstances. Our developed system is based on integrating metal price and geological uncertainties as well as operating flexibility to close the mine early. We incorporate this operating flexibility into the proposed system using a Monte Carlo based real options (RO) valuation model. For this purpose, in addition to the expected value, other risk criteria are considered to rank the alternatives. These risk criteria include abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses, and achieving the predefined goals of the production. In this study, the technically possible COGSs are generated using the Lane comprehensive algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, we utilize data of an Iranian gold mine. Results show that the proposed system outperforms conventional methods in the sense that it shows significantly lower average mis-ranking than the other methods and also selects a strategy with a higher value. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed system relative to the gold price shows that the system is highly dependent on the parameters of the stochastic process used to model the evolution of the metal price. Therefore, special consideration should be given in estimating stochastic process parameters.     

A sceptical vision of the environmental Kuznets curve: The case of sulfur dioxide

The aim of this paper is to check the hypothesis for the environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur dioxide. This involved analysis of: 1. the theoretical basis of the model; 2. the technical problem of SO2 generation; 3 the kind of information used in the estimations; 4. changes in the structure of electric energy production; 5. improvements in energy efficiency; and 6. the recent introduction of cleaning mechanisms in a favourable political context. The conclusion is that, if it is possible to prove the existence of environmental Kuznets curve models, their utility as instruments of economic policy is debatable.     

Developing an Ecosystem Perspective from Experimental Monitoring Programs: II. Ecophysiological Responses of a Rare Geothermal Grass to Soil Water

Measurements of xylem water potential, leaf conductance, and leaf pressure–volume characteristics on the geothermal endemic Dichanthelium lanuginosum var. thermale (DILA) were used to delineate operational ranges during wet and dry years and among several microsites at Little Geysers, Sonoma County, California, USA. Plants seldom experienced water potentials more negative that −1.5 MPa. Other nongeothermal, widespread species experienced the lower water potentials typical of chaparral and woodland plants. DILA was able to effectively utilize geothermal water while the widespread species could not and was able to keep stomata open during most of the year. There was evidence to suggest that DILA had some ability to acclimate with significant shifts in Π_o and ψ_o during the dry 1994 summer, especially in the upland microhabitat. Nevertheless, minimum leaf turgor values in the upland came very close to, or dropped below, the 0.2–0.3 MPa threshold thought necessary to maintain stomatal opening and photosynthesis. DILA thus depends upon the unique water status of fumarole soils in the vicinity of the Little Geysers to persist in an otherwise lethal regional mosaic of climate, soil, and vegetation. The physiological data were used to derive reference ranges for subsequent monitoring of DILA at Little Geysers. Such ranges are required to determine the future impact, if any, of geothermal development on the persistence of this rare grass and its complex ecosystem.     

The Environmental Impact of Shrimp Aquaculture: Causes, Effects, and Mitigating Alternatives

Attracted by the demand for shrimp in the developed countries, shrimp aquaculture has expanded rapidly, mainly in the subtropical and tropical lowlands of America and Asia. This work provides a global review and viewpoint on the environmental impacts of shrimp aquaculture, considering the causes and effects of the siting and operation of shrimp ponds and abandonment of farm facilities. Additionally, mitigating alternatives are discussed. To date, approximately 1–1.5 million ha of coastal lowlands have been converted into shrimp ponds, comprising mainly salt flats, mangrove areas, marshes, and agricultural lands. The impact of shrimp farming of most concern is the destruction of mangroves and salt marshes for pond construction. Compatibility with other users, the presence of buffer zones, maintaining an acceptable balance between mangroves and shrimp pond area, improved pond design, reduction of water exchange, and an improved residence time of water, size and capacity to assimilate effluents of the water body, are examples of ways to mitigate the adverse effects. The use of mangroves and halophytes as biofilters of shrimp pond effluents offers an attractive tool for reducing the impact in those regions where mangrove wetlands and appropriate conditions for halophyte plantations exist. Healthy seed supply, good feed with the use of prophylactic agents (including probiotics), good water quality, and lower stocking densities are examples of actions suggested to control disease in shrimp farming. Finally, in the context of integrated management, research priorities are suggested.     

High-Frequency Zone of River Desiccation Disasters in China and Influencing Factors

In recent years, the desiccation of the lower Yellow River has raised concerns in the government, public, and scientific community in China. Long-term and widespread desiccation of rivers is a disaster with many adverse environmental implications. It has been found in this study that there exists a high-frequency zone of river desiccation disasters at 34°–42°N in the North China Plain. The hazardous environment is characterized by semiarid climate, widely distributed thick loess in the basin and a “hanging river bed” in the plain as well as unfavorable man–water–land coupling relationships. In this setting, the sharply increased water diversion by man since the late 1950s led to the occurrence of river desiccation disasters in the lower reaches of the river in this area.     

A Combined Park Management Framework Based on Regulatory and Behavioral Strategies: Use of Visitors' Knowledge to Assess Effectiveness

In light of the increasing mandate for greater efficiency in conservation of natural reserves such as national parks, the present study suggests educational approaches as a tool to achieve conservation purposes. Currently, the management of human–wildlife interactions is dominated by regulatory strategies, but considerable potential exists for environmental education to enhance knowledge in the short run and to prompt attitude change in the long run. A framework for conservation based on both traditional regulatory- and behavior-oriented strategies was proposed whereby the level of knowledge that park visitors have acquired comprises an obvious outcome and establishes a basis upon which the effectiveness of regulatory- and behavior-based regimes could be assessed. The perceptions regarding park-related issues of two distinct visitor groups (locals and nonlocals) are summarized from a survey undertaken in Vikos-Aoos national park. The findings suggest a superficial knowledge for certain concepts but little profound understanding of the content of such concepts, indicating that knowledge-raising efforts should go a long way towards establishing a positive attitude for the resource. Visitors' poor knowledge of the park's operation regulation contest the efficiency of the presently dominant regulatory management regime. While geographical distances did not appear to significantly differentiate knowledge between the two groups, wilderness experience (as certified by visits to other parks) was proved to be an impetus for generating substantial learner interest in critical park issues among nonlocal visitors. School education and media were found to be significant knowledge providers.     

Adaptive Management on Public Lands in the United States: Commitment or Rhetoric?

Adaptive management (AM) is the process of implementing land management activities in incremental steps and evaluating whether desired outcomes are being achieved at each step. If conditions deviate substantially from predictions, management activities are adjusted to achieve the desired outcomes. Thus, AM is a kind of monitoring, an activity that land management agencies have done poorly for the most part, at least with respect to ground-based monitoring. Will they do better in the future? We doubt it unless costs, personnel, and future commitment are seriously addressed. Because ecosystem responses to management impacts can ripple into the distant future, monitoring programs that address only the near future (e.g., 10–20 years), are probably unreliable for making statements about resource conditions in the distant future. We give examples of this. Feedback loops between ecosystem response and adjustment of management actions are often broken, and therefore AM again fails. Successful ground-based monitoring must address these and other points that agencies commonly ignore. As part of the solution, publics distrustful of agency activities should be included in any monitoring program.     

Criteria for Oil Spill Recovery: A Case Study of the Intertidal Community of Prince William Sound, Alaska, Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Marine intertidal organisms in Prince William Sound were exposed to crude oil following the T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989. The intertidal communities were also subjected to mechanical disturbance during invasive oil spill remediation and cleanup efforts. Using monitoring data collected from 1989 to 1997, impacts and eventual recovery were assessed at oiled but uncleaned sites and oiled and cleaned study areas. A statistical model where recovery was defined as parallelism between the time profiles at control and oiled sites was evaluated. Statistical analysis and graphical presentations of the data suggest intertidal epibiota communities recovered from the oil spill by 1992 at the oiled sites and by 1994 at the oiled and remediated sites. Empirical data from the intertidal monitoring program supports the use of tests of parallelism in evaluating recovery and the need to avoid simply the comparison of sample means from control and oiled sites.     

Managing Birds and Controlling Aircraft in the Kennedy Airport–Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge Complex: The Need for Hard Data and Soft Opinions

During the 1980s, the exponential growth of laughing gull (Larus atricilla) colonies, from 15 to about 7600 nests in 1990, in the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge and a correlated increase in the bird-strike rate at nearby John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) led to a controversy between wildlife and airport managers over the elimination of the colonies. In this paper, we review data to evaluate if: (1) the colonies have increased the level of risk to the flying public; (2) on-colony population control would reduce the presence of gulls, and subsequently bird strikes, at the airport; and (3) all on-airport management alternatives have been adequately implemented. Since 1979, most (2987, 87%) of the 3444 bird strikes (number of aircraft struck) were actually bird carcasses found near runways (cause of death unknown but assumed to be bird strikes by definition). Of the 457 pilot-reported strikes (mean = 23 ± 6 aircraft/yr, N= 20 years), 78 (17%) involved laughing gulls. Since a gull-shooting program was initiated on airport property in 1991, over 50,000 adult laughing gulls have been killed and the number of reported bird strikes involving laughing gulls has declined from 6.9 ± 2.9 (1983–1990) to 2.6 ± 1.3 (1991–1998) aircraft/yr; nongull reported bird strikes, however, have more than doubled (6.4 ± 2.6, 1983–1990; 14.9 ± 5.1, 1991–1998). We found no evidence to indicate that on-colony management would yield a reduction of bird strikes at Kennedy Airport. Dietary and mark–recapture studies suggest that 60%–90% of the laughing gulls collected on-airport were either failed breeders and/or nonbreeding birds. We argue that the Jamaica Bay laughing gull colonies, the only ones in New York State, should not be managed at least until all on-airport management alternatives have been properly implemented and demonstrated to be ineffective at reducing bird strikes, including habitat alterations and increasing the capability of the bird control unit to eliminate bird flocks on-airport using nonlethal bird dispersal techniques. Because the gull-shooting program may be resulting in a nonsustainable regional population of laughing gulls (>30% decline), we also recommend that attempts be made to initiate an experimental colony elsewhere on Long Island to determine if colony relocation is a feasible management option.