中国城市化发展阶段与CO2排放的关系研究

目前节能减排已经成为中国“十二五”规划面临的主要任务之一,相关部门在进行决策时不能不考虑城市发展水平与CO2排放的关系.通过协整理论及修正误差模型分析结果表明,由于中国经历着经济转轨和社会转型,虽然1949-2007年城市化与CO2排放并不存在长期均衡关系,但改革开放前后城市化和CO2排放量都呈现出长期稳定的比例关系,即CO2排放随着城市化水平的提高而不断提高,且改革开放前后城市化水平对CO2排放影响存在差异.另外,尽管从短期来看,CO2排放不受当年城市化变动的影响,但从长期来看,不论改革开放前还是改革开放以后,城市化与CO2排放之间具有长期的稳定关系.城市化对CO2排放的影响存在一定的滞后性.因此,相关政府部门在进行决算时不能脱离城市化发展阶段,即要考虑短期影响,更要在战略高度进行长期规划,可通过把握城市化的进程来控制CO2排放增长的速度.     

Managing conflicts between economic activities and threatened migratory marine species toward creating a multiobjective blue economy

Harnessing the economic potential of the oceans is key to combating poverty, enhancing food security, and strengthening economies. But the concomitant risk of intensified resource extraction to migratory species is worrying given these species contribute to important ecological processes, often underpin alternative livelihoods, and are mostly already threatened. We thus sought to quantify the potential conflict between key economic activities (5 fisheries and hydrocarbon exploitation) and sea turtle migration corridors in a region with rapid economic development: southern and eastern Africa. We satellite tracked the movement of 20 loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and 14 leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) turtles during their postnesting migrations. We used movement‐based kernel density estimation to identify migration corridors for each species. We overlaid these corridors on maps of the distribution and intensity of economic activities, quantified the extent of overlap and threat posed by each activity on each species, and compared the effects of activities. These results were compared with annual bycatch rates in the respective fisheries. Both species’ 3 corridors overlapped most with longline fishing, but the effect was worse for leatherbacks: their bycatch rates of approximately 1500/year were substantial relative to the regional population size of <100 nesting females/annum. This bycatch rate is likely slowing population growth. Artisanal fisheries may be of greater concern for loggerheads than for leatherbacks, but the population appears to be withstanding the high bycatch rates because it is increasing exponentially. The hydrocarbon industry currently has a moderately low impact on both species, but mining in key areas (e.g., Southern Mozambique) may undermine >50 years of conservation, potentially affecting >80% of loggerheads, 33% of the (critically endangered) leatherbacks, and their nesting beaches. We support establishing blue economies (i.e., generating wealth from the ocean), but oceans need to be carefully zoned and responsibly managed in both space and time to achieve economic (resource extraction), ecological (conservation, maintenance of processes), and social (maintenance of alternative livelihood opportunities, alleviate poverty) objectives.     

Tying enforcement to prices in emissions markets: An experimental evaluation

We present results from laboratory emissions permit markets designed to investigate the transmission of abatement cost risk to firms' compliance behavior and regulatory enforcement strategies. With a fixed expected marginal penalty, abatement cost shocks produced significant violations and emissions volatility as predicted. Tying the monitoring probability to average permit prices effectively eliminated noncompliance, but transmitted abatement cost risk to monitoring effort. Tying the penalty to average prices reduced violations, but did not eliminate them. Some individuals in these treatments sold permits at low prices, presumably in an attempt to weaken enforcement. While tying sanctions directly to prevailing permit prices has theoretical and practical advantages over tying monitoring to prices, our results suggest that tying sanctions to prices may not be as effective as predicted without additional modifications.     

Neighborhood effects in the Brazilian Amazônia: Protected areas and deforestation

This article investigates whether protected areas are efficient instruments against deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia. A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model taking into account both the location bias and the spatial spillover effects between municipalities allows to assess the impact of the different types of protected areas (integral protected areas, sustainable protected areas and indigenous lands) on deforestation. We show that deforestation decisions are strategic complements. The econometric results differ according to the type of protected area. It is shown that: i) integral protected areas and indigenous lands allow for reducing deforestation; ii) sustainable use areas do not help to reduce deforestation; and iii) the spillover effects generated by integral protected areas and indigenous lands lead a reduction in deforestation in their vicinity. A 10% increase in the surface area of integral protected areas (indigenous lands) allows an estimated 9.32 sq. km (10.08 sq. km) of avoided deforestation.     

Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan

This paper aims to provide empirical research to identify the linkages between final demand–total output, final demand–total supply, value-added ratios and prices, and also to analyze total factor productivity growth using input–output framework for 25 sectors. Studying the input–output tables for 2001 and 2006, the research estimates impact and response multipliers of non-oil sectors, as well as non-oil trading sectors. The results are important from the view of development of non-oil trading sectors and diversification of the economy in order to avoid the “resource curse”.     

Unignited High-Pressure Methane Jet Impinging a Pipe Rack: Practical Tools for Risk Assessment

Although the diffusion of its storage and transport under liquefied conditions, nowadays it is common to have methane in gaseous form in several industrial applications. This leads to safety implications to be considered: hazards are linked to both the high-pressure at which the gas is kept and to its flammability. Scenarios where flammable jets impact an obstacle are of paramount importance because of their possible occurrence. Following a numerical approach, literature shows up that their assessment can be reliably performed by means of only Computational Fluid Dynamics tools. However, despite the improvements of computing power, Computational Fluid Dynamics costs still limit its use in daily risk analysts’ activities. Therefore, considering an accidental jet-obstacle scenario of industrial interest, the present work investigates how a pipe rack can influence the development of a high-pressure methane jet. Based on a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis, main achievements of this work are a simple criterion able to identify the situations where the pipe rack does not influence the high-pressure methane jet behavior, therefore allowing to identify the scenarios where simpler models can be used (i.e., analytical correlations known for the free jet situation), and, if present, a simple analytical relationship that roughly predicts the influence of the pipe rack without the need of performing complex Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations.     

两级序批式反应器运行模式下平板膜污染机理研究

从膜污染物分析、微生物代谢产物EPS、SMP对膜污染的影响等方面,对两级序批式反应器运行模式下的平板膜污染机理进行了试验研究.结果表明,膜表面及膜孔内部存在以球菌、杆菌为主的生物污染,膜表面的无机污染物主要是Fe、Na、Zr、Rb、Ca等化合物在浓差极化的作用下超过其溶解度极限后结晶形成的盐垢,膜表面的有机污染物主要是蛋白质,是形成膜表面凝胶层的主要原因,而蛋白质在膜面为伴随有电子转移的化学吸附,从而引起膜通量严重下降.     

Towards a new physical theory of biotic evolution and development

Motivated by the postulates:

(a)

Matter has complementary properties: matter waves at high mass density and information oscillations at high information density.

(b)

Biological systems are information generating systems, i.e., genome capacity to generate developmental functional complexity (phenotype).

(c)

Biological information sustains the living state.

We discuss a definite model in which the life state of an organism, for successive generations, is a generalized Schrödinger's type of system which is non-conservative, nonlinear and irreversible. Vitality, the state variable, is the genome capacity to generate developmental functional complexity (phenotype). It is a function of the phenotypic variables of biological information, i.e., matter-energy growth function, life expectancy and natality.We also discuss evolution within this model. We find that the evolution of a unicellular organism, being a process through which the life function undertakes negative damping, leads to the increase of total vitality. Total vitality is a function of the system's lifespan, bio-complexity and total matter-energy metabolized or body mass. Total vitality is quantized. The derived quantization relationship provides plausible theoretical basis for punctuated equilibrium. Total bio-information (total vitality + total natality density) is conserved. The conserved quantity describes evolution and generates ecosystem, population and organism growth dynamics. Vitality has the dimension of flow-bits. Finally, a thought experiment is proposed to falsify the hypothesis.     

Human serum paraoxonase gene polymorphisms and association with chronic symptoms of pesticide toxicity in Indian farmers

The association between PON1 (serum paraoxonase) genotype and symptoms of pesticide toxicity was examined in a total of 268 farm workers in Andhra Pradesh, India. Approximately 140 of the farm workers who did not report at least two of the symptoms of chronic toxicity, such as abdominal pain, nausea, dizziness, headache, drowsiness, fatigue, tremors of fingers, numbness, or limb weakness were categorized as controls. The remaining 128 farmers showed 2 or more of the above symptoms. All the farm workers were genotyped for polymorphisms of PON1 gene at amino acid positions 55 (exon 3) and 192 (exon 6). A decrease in the percentage of high-activity genotypes at both L55M and Q192R was observed in the farm workers reporting symptoms of pesticide toxicity. When combined genotype distribution at both exons was analyzed, a marked increase in the percentage of low-activity genotypes LLQQ, LMQQ, MMQQ, and MMQR was also observed in symptomatic farmers compared to controls. Age, working years, smoking, duration of exposure, and alcoholism were not statistically significant when compared to symptoms of chronic toxicity. Our findings suggest that L55M and Q192R gene polymorphisms influence the variable susceptibility of farmers to pesticide; and thus may be considered a useful biomarker of genetic susceptibility in assessing an individual's risk of pesticide exposures.     

Dynamic resource management under the risk of regime shifts

This paper provides a framework through which a dynamic resource management problem with potential regime shifts can be analyzed both in a strategic environment and from a social planner?s perspective. Based on a fairly general model, a condition for a precautionary policy is discussed. By applying the framework to a common-property resource problem with a linear production technology, we illustrate how the qualitative as well as quantitative nature of equilibrium is altered due to the possibility of regime shifts. In particular, when the risk is endogenously affected by the players? behavior, potential regime shifts can facilitate the precautionary management of resources as long as the resource stock is in good shape. As the stock of resource becomes scarce, however, the precautionary effect vanishes and more aggressive resource exploitation emerges. The impacts of irreversibility on the equilibrium behavior are highlighted. It is also shown that there can exist a resource-depletion trap in which a regime shift, once it happens, triggers a continuous decline of resource stock no matter which regime materializes in the subsequent periods.