Identifying Influences on Model Uncertainty: An Application Using a Forest Carbon Budget Model

Uncertainty is an important consideration for both developers and users of environmental simulation models. Establishing quantitative estimates of uncertainty for deterministic models can be difficult when the underlying bases for such information are scarce. We demonstrate an application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis that provides for refinements in quantifying input uncertainty even with little information. Uncertainties in forest carbon budget projections were examined with Monte Carlo analyses of the model FORCARB. We identified model sensitivity to range, shape, and covariability among model probability density functions, even under conditions of limited initial information. Distributional forms of probabilities were not as important as covariability or ranges of values. Covariability among FORCARB model parameters emerged as a very influential component of uncertainty, especially for estimates of average annual carbon flux.     

Making Collaborative Watershed Management Work: The Confluence of State and Regional Initiatives

Initiatives in the Neponset, Ipswich, and Sudbury-Assabet-Concord watersheds highlight how watershed-scale innovation in engaging nongovernment participants is influenced, but not dominated, by the statewide program, the Massachusetts Watershed Initiative. The presence or absence of three elements—external support, process, and issue—and the order in which they occur, shape the viability of collaborative watershed-scale management initiatives. External support includes providing personnel or funding from outside an initiative. Process is the interaction among individuals undertaking watershed-wide policy development and/or implementation. An issue is an attention-requiring concern, vital to a watershed, that can most effectively be addressed by a coordinated strategy among different parties. A process generated by an issue is sustainable and amenable to enhancement through external support. The contribution of external support is most apparent when outside assistance is provided after an issue has crystallized into clear problem needs that can be addressed through specific research projects or implementation activities. Process is central in shaping issues, utilizing external support, and generating management results. The outcomes of voluntary processes in the three watershed initiatives highlight how the evolution of the Massachusetts Watershed Initiative leads to, and depends upon, the development of watershed-scale initiatives.     

Microbiological Monitoring of Marine Recreational Waters in Southern California

An inventory was conducted to assess the number, type, spatial distribution, and costs of microbiological monitoring programs in southern California marine waters from Point Conception to the US/Mexico International Border. The location of each sampling site was determined using global positioning system (GPS), and estimates of geographic coverage were determined using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Twenty-one programs conducted 87,007 tests annually at 576 sites in the study area. The largest number of sites was sampled in Orange County, whereas the largest number of analyses was performed in Los Angeles County because monitoring programs in this area focused on daily monitoring. Fifteen of the 21 programs were managed by National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permitted sewage effluent dischargers who sampled both offshore and shoreline waters and typically tested for three indicator bacteria (total coliform, fecal coliform, and enterococcus). Their combined efforts comprised 82% of all of the microbiological indicator analyses conducted on an annual basis. Five of the remaining monitoring organizations were public health agencies, which typically focus their efforts on testing only total coliforms. Laboratory methodology also varied considerably, with NPDES permittees predominantly utilizing membrane filtration while public health agencies generally used multiple tube fermentation or premanufactured test kits. Nearly three quarters of all the effort expended in southern California occurred along the shoreline as opposed to offshore locations. Two thirds of this shoreline effort was focused on high-use sandy beaches and in proximity to perennial freshwater outlets (storm drains and creeks). Most sampling occurred at a set of fixed sites that were revisited frequently, but only represented about 7% of the total shoreline. We estimated that roughly $3 million is spent annually on monitoring bathing water quality in southern California, exceeding that spent in any other part of the country.     

Land-use suitability analysis in the United States: historical development and promising technological achievements

Various methods of spatial analysis are commonly used in land-use plans and site selection studies. A historical overview and discussion of contemporary developments of land-use suitability analysis are presented. The paper begins with an exploration into the early 20th century with the infancy of documented applications of the technique. The article then travels through the 20th century, documenting significant milestones. Concluding with present explorations of advanced technologies such as neural computing and evolutionary programming, this work is meant to serve as a foundation for literature review and a premise for the exploration of new advancements as we enter into the 21st century.     

Natural and Anthropogenic Methane Emission from Coastal Wetlands of South India

For the first time, the methane emissions from diverse coastal wetlands of South India have been measured. Annual emission rates varied widely, ranging from 3.10 mg/m²/hr (Bay of Bengal) to 21.56 mg/m²/hr (Adyar River), based on nature of the perturbance to each of the ecosystems studied. Distinct seasonality in methane emission was noticed in an unpolluted ecosystem (mangrove: 7.38 mg/m²/hr) and over a twofold increase was evident in the ecosystem that was disturbed by human activities (21.56 mg/m²/hr). The wide ranges in estimate suggest that methanogenesis occurs by both natural and anthropogenic activities in these coastal wetlands. Several physical and chemical factors such as salinity, sulfate, oxygen, and organic matter content influenced methanogenesis to a large degree in each of these ecosystems in addition to individual responses to human-induced stress. For example, there was a clear negative correlation between oxygen availability (0.99), sulfate (0.98), and salinity (0.98) with CH₄ emission in the Adyar river ecosystem. Although similar results were obtained for the other wetland ecosystems, CH₄ emission was largely influenced by tidal fluctuations, resulting in a concomitant increase in methanogenesis with high sulfate concentrations. This study demonstrates that coastal wetlands are potentially significant sources of atmospheric methane and could be a greater source if anthropogenic perturbations continue at the current rate. RID=" ID=" *Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.     

Environmental Management of Quarries as Waste Disposal Facilities

Problems associated with the disposal of municipal solid waste have become a source of public concern worldwide as awareness of potential adverse environmental impacts and health threats from solid waste has increased. Communities are concerned about the generation and management of solid waste to the extent of refusing to allow new disposal facilities near their homes, often after witnessing the legacy of existing facilities. Under these conditions, the development of national policies for the management of solid waste becomes highly political, all while requiring appropriate technical solutions that ensure environmental protection and proper management plans that support an acceptable solution for the disposal of municipal solid waste. In some locations, the conversion of old quarries into well-engineered and controlled landfills appears as a promising solution to a continuously increasing problem, at least for many decades to come. This paper describes the environmental impacts associated with solid waste disposal in a converted quarry site and the mitigation measures that can be adopted to alleviate potential adverse impacts. Environmental management and monitoring plans are also discussed in the context of ensuring adequate environmental protection during and after the conversion process.     

Environmental Impact Evaluation Model for Industrial Processes

This paper proposes a model to evaluate the environmental impact of manufacturing processes. This model uses the potency factor approach to classify environmental impacts into five ecological health impact groups and uses their toxicological, cancer, and physical effects as the bases to rate the seven groups of human health impacts. The environmental impacts in each impact group are reported, and their hazard scores on ecological and human health are determined. The model also generates a single score for the overall environmental impacts of a process. This single score system helps to identify, among all the viable processes, which is the most environmentally friendly process. This model can serve as a tool to highlight the potential environmental hazards of process operations and to provide information about environmental performance for decision making. The model has been developed into a computer software program, Environmental Impact Evaluation System, and is demonstrated by using the processes employed for the manufacture of paper bags.     

Remote Sensing of Landscape-Level Coastal Environmental Indicators

Advances in technology and decreases in cost are making remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) practical and attractive for use in coastal resource management. They are also allowing researchers and managers to take a broader view of ecological patterns and processes. Landscape-level environmental indicators that can be detected by Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and other remote sensors are available to provide quantitative estimates of coastal and estuarine habitat conditions and trends. Such indicators include watershed land cover, riparian buffers, shoreline and wetland changes, among others. With the launch of Landsat 7, the cost of TM imagery has dropped by nearly a factor of 10, decreasing the cost of monitoring large coastal areas and estuaries. New satellites, carrying sensors with much finer spatial (1-5 m) and spectral (200 narrow bands) resolutions are being launched, providing a capability to more accurately detect changes in coastal habitat and wetland health. Advances in the application of GIS help incorporate ancillary data layers to improve the accuracy of satellite land-cover classification. When these techniques for generating, organizing, storing, and analyzing spatial information are combined with mathematical models, coastal planners and managers have a means for assessing the impacts of alternative management practices.     

Can David and Goliath Get Along? Federal Land in Local Places

It is often unclear what the role of a local jurisdiction is with regard to land use management on nearby federal properties. Yet federal lands clearly impact nearby local communities. The US Department of Energy (DOE), with over 100 sites across the United States with varying degrees of environmental contamination, may be in a very difficult position with regard to relationships with local government about land use. Yet few, if any, studies have examined DOE land use issues. This study asks: (1) In general, how do local planners feel about federal government relationships with them? (2) Do local planners feel differently about the DOE than they do about other federal agencies? (3) What reasons explain any differences observed in answer to the second question? To answer these questions, local planners were interviewed from communities adjacent to non-DOE federal properties, and their responses compared to those of planners located near DOE facilities in the same regions. Findings showed that compared to other federal agencies that own land in the same regions, the DOE is relatively poorer at actively involving local officials in land use decisions at its sites. Primary reasons are the historic legacy of a culture of secrecy, focus on mission, and especially the lack of experience, training, or mandates in local planning cooperation. Findings also suggest that this attitude is markedly stronger in areas west of the Rocky Mountains. Recommendations for improved federal–local communications include the development of a vision for local government involvement that is supported by top levels of management and filtered effectively to the site level.     

Building the Capacity of Grassroots Conservation Organizations to Conduct Participatory Evaluation

Stakeholder participation has become a key factor in the success of grassroots conservation and natural resource management programs. Yet the majority of program evaluations are conducted by external consultants for the purposes of accountability, rather than program improvement. Too often, systematic evaluations of conservation programs are not conducted at all. The objective of this study was to build the capacity of a grassroots conservation organization to conduct participatory evaluation, involving project stakeholders in the design, implementation, and use of evaluation. The study applied a conceptual model for participatory evaluation to the Wildlife Clubs of Kenya (WCK), the largest grassroots conservation program for youth in Africa, involving more than one million youth since 1968. Seven trainings in participatory evaluation were conducted with WCK staff, teachers, and community members. The 120 participants, representing nine WCK regions with 800 clubs, showed a significant increase in attitudes and knowledge regarding evaluation, as reflected by mean test scores before and after training. To institutionalize evaluation at WCK, existing organizational practices were assessed and used as a foundation for developing an evaluation system. Based on club competitions, a new evaluation initiative was launched called the WCK Incentive Program. Participants in all seven workshops identified indicators and sources of evidence for this evaluation system, which now serves as a basis for rewarding outstanding performance in WCK. This study revealed the importance of incentives for evaluation, the need to build on existing structures to promote organizational learning, and the necessity for the conservation community to commit resources to capacity building in participatory evaluation.