Simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization with multi-agent systems—A case study of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA

Urbanization is a human-dominated process and has greatly impacted biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and regional climate. To understand the socioeconomic drivers of urbanization and project future urban landscape changes, multi-agent systems provide a powerful tool. We develop an agent-based model of urban growth for the Phoenix metropolitan region of the United States, which simulates the behavior of regional authorities, real estate developers, residents, and environmentalists. The BDI (Beliefs-Desires-Intentions) structure is employed to simulate the agents behavior and decision models. The heterogeneity of agents is reflected by adjusting parameters according to the agents’ beliefs, desires and preferences. Three scenarios, baseline, economic development priority and environmental protection, are developed and analyzed. The combination of multi-agent system and spatial regression model is employed to predict the future urban development of the Phoenix metropolitan region. Landscape metrics are used to compare the spatial patterns of the urban landscape resulting from different scenarios in different times. In general, with the rapid urban expansion, the shape of urban patches will become more regular as many of them become coalesced. The spatial analysis of urban development through modeling individual and group decisions and human-environment interactions with a multi-agent systems approach can enhance our understanding of the socioeconomic driving forces and mechanisms of urban development.     

Potential Effects of Direct Transfer Payments on Farmland Habitat Diversity in a Marginal European Landscape

Farmland habitat diversity in marginal European landscapes changed significantly in the past decades. Further changes toward homogenization are expected, particularly in the course of European agricultural policy. Based on three alternative transfer payment schemes, we modeled spatially explicit potential effects on the farmland habitat diversity in a marginal European landscape. We defined (1) a scenario with direct transfer payments coupled to production, (2) a scenario with direct transfer payments decoupled from production, and (3) a scenario phasing out all direct transfer payments. We characterized habitat diversity with three indices: habitat richness, evenness, and rarity. The habitat pattern in 1995 served as reference for comparison. All scenarios predicted a general trend of homogenization of the farmland habitat pattern, yet to a differing extent. Transfer payments coupled to production (Scenario 1) favored the abandonment of agricultural production, particularly in low-productive areas and arable land use in more productive areas. Habitat richness and habitat evenness had intermediate values in this scenario. Decoupling transfer payments from production (Scenario 2) supported grassland as most profitable farming system. This led to a grassland-dominated landscape with low values of all habitat diversity indices. Phasing out transfer payments (Scenario 3) resulted in complete abandonment or afforestation of agricultural land and extremely low values in all habitat diversity indices. Scenario results indicate that transfer payments may prevent cessation of agricultural production, but may not counteract homogenization in marginal landscapes. Conserving high farmland habitat diversity in such landscapes may require support schemes, e.g., Pillar Two of EU Common Agricultural Policy.     

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km², increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.     

Ranking individual habitat patches as connectivity providers: Integrating network analysis and patch removal experiments

Here we propose an integrated framework for modeling connectivity that can help ecologists, conservation planners and managers to identify patches that, more than others, contribute to uphold species dispersal and other ecological flows in a landscape context. We elaborate, extend and partly integrate recent network-based approaches for modeling and supporting the management of fragmented landscapes. In doing so, experimental patch removal techniques and network analytical approaches are merged into one integrated modeling framework for assessing the role of individual patches as connectivity providers. In particular, we focus the analyses on the habitat availability metrics PC and IIC and on the network metric Betweenness Centrality. The combination and extension of these metrics jointly assess both the immediate connectivity impacts of the loss of a particular patch and the resulting increased vulnerability of the network to subsequent disruptions. In using the framework to analyze the connectivity of two real landscapes in Madagascar and Catalonia (NE Spain), we suggest a procedure that can be used to rank individual habitat patches and show that the combined metrics reveal relevant and non-redundant information valuable to assert and quantify distinctive connectivity aspects of any given patch in the landscape. Hence, we argue that the proposed framework could facilitate more ecologically informed decision-making in managing fragmented landscapes. Finally, we discuss and highlight some of the advantages, limitations and key differences between the considered metrics.     

A new approach to the analysis of adjacencies: Potentials for landscape insights

Spatial adjacencies are a key-issue in environmental studies. Adjacency effects have been amply observed for biotic (plants and animals) and abiotic components of ecosystems. Particularly well-documented are the effects from human manufactures onto the contiguous vegetation mosaics of natural and semi-natural areas.In this work we first propose and reformulate association rules analysis (ARA), a relatively new data mining algorithm with very limited scientific applications so far, in the form of an in-depth investigation method of the spatial pattern of landcover and vegetation maps. We applied ARA to two very different study areas in Northern Italy, the first (Ceno valley) having a substantial human footprint and mapped at 1:25,000 scale, the second (Foses valley) being almost natural and mapped at 1:5000 scale.We were able to: (a) detect the entire network of spatial adjacencies among landcover types and (b) quantify the frequency and strength of detected adjacencies. Based on our spatial analysis, we also advanced hypotheses on both natural and man-driven vegetation dynamics. In addition, ARA allowed us to propose an index of naturality based on the discovered contiguities.Results show the skill of the proposed approach to characterize landcover spatial patterns for both mid-resolution and high-resolution maps. Furthermore the proposed approach bears a general interest, since it can be applied to the analysis of any landcover map.     

Multi-temporal land use and cover changing analysis: the environmental impact in Mediterranean area

ABSTRACT

Human activity shapes the levels of anthropogenic pressure that depend on the land management method adopted. This has a fundamental role in the transformation of traditional landscapes. This study focuses on a representative region of the Mediterranean area with the objective to analyse the landscape’s dynamics, to detect the spatial arrangement of class patches, to identify the main agroecosystem characters and to provide a framework to assess ecosystems services. In order to assess land use/land cover changes and landscape persistence, the period between 1960 and 2012 was analysed, taking into consideration the years 1960, 2000 and 2012 using comparable land use maps. Land use and land cover analysis show an urban area growth of 24% during 2000–2012 and of 523% over between 1960 and 2012. The very high levels of land abandonment up to the year 2000 (+7216%) have reversed their trend between 2000 and 2012 (?95%). The orchards showed a relevant increase, particularly after 2000, while the vineyards were linked to the highest value of surface erosion (?74%). The outcomes showed that urban settlements can damage the ecological network with negative effects on the landscape’s environmental sustainability in proximity of significant urban centres. Instead, the ecological network is well preserved and highly associated to the agricultural areas when there is the persistence of many land uses and low urban density, despite the presence of dynamic changes.     

Landscape network congruency at the ecoregion scale: can we expect corridor ‘umbrellas’?

Conservation planners are faced with numerous choices regarding ‘what to connect’ when modeling landscape networks on an ecoregion scale. A simplifying assumption is often that coarse-scale corridors may provide overlapping or ‘umbrella’ effects for multiple conservation scenarios. To examine this, we assessed differences in connectivity models arising from four different conservation scenarios for the transboundary Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion (330,000 km²). Models resulted in networks comprised of varying levels of connectedness, suggesting the presence of local connectivity at several sub-ecoregion scales, but diminished ecoregion-scale connectivity. Our results also indicate that selecting ‘what to connect’ at the ecoregion scale strongly influences the location and extent of modeled corridors. Further, our evidence suggests that landscape networks derived for one scenario are not likely to produce far-reaching corridor umbrellas or highly coincident landscape networks for alternative conservation scenarios with varying goals. As a result, alternative landscape networks should not be considered functionally equivalent.     

Assessing the Restoration Success of River Widenings: A Landscape Approach

During the last 200 years, many rivers in industrialized countries have been modified by canalization. In the last two decades, the philosophy of river management has changed considerably, and restoration of ecological integrity has become an important management goal. One appealing restoration approach is to create “river widenings” that permit braiding within a limited area. This study presents a new and efficient framework for rapidly assessing such widening projects and offers a novel method to comparing restored sites with near-natural stretches (stencil technique). The proposed framework evaluates spatial patterns of riparian habitat types using landscape metrics as indicators. Three case studies from river restoration (river widening) in Switzerland are presented for demonstration purposes.The method compares restored sites with prerestoration conditions and near-natural conditions, which are assumed to represent the worst and best case states of a river system. To take into account the limited spatial extent of the restored sites, the so-called “stencil technique” was developed, where the landscape metrics of the near-natural reference sites are calculated for both the entire study area and smaller sections (clips). The clips are created by using a stencil that has the exact shape and size of the restored area (random window-sampling technique). Subsequently, the calculated metrics for the restored sites are compared to the range of values calculated for the near-natural data subset. Our studies show that the proposed method is easy to apply andprovides a valid way to assess the restoration success of river widenings. We found that river widenings offer real opportunities for establishing riparian habitats. However, they promote mainly pioneer successional stages and the habitat mosaic of the restored section is more complex than at the near-natural reference sites.     

Factors affecting private forest landowner interest in ecosystem management: linking spatial and survey data

Many factors influence forest landowner management decisions. This study examines landowner decisions regarding participation in ecosystem management activities, such as a landscape corridor cutting across their private lands. Landscape corridors are recognized worldwide as an important tool in biodiversity conservation. For ecosystem management activities to occur in areas dominated by a multitude of small private forest landholdings, landowner participation and cooperation is necessary. Data from a survey of landowners combined with an analysis of their land's spatial attributes is used to assess their interest in ecosystem management. Results suggest that spatial attributes are not good predictors of an owner's interest in ecosystem management. Other factors such as attitudes and opinions about the environment are more effective in explaining landowner interest. The results have implications for any land manager using GIS data and implementing ecosystem management activities on private forestland.     

沙漠化灾害的景观干扰分析

土地沙漠化是影响全球生存环境和可持续发展的重大灾害性问题，本文从景观和景观生态学出发，论述了沙漠化景观稳定性和景观干扰的特征、本质及测度，特别强调了自然因素和人为活动对沙化景观干扰所产生的影响，最后论述了依据地理信息系统和遥感图像建立沙化景观干扰图的框架，为从景观尺度研究沙漠化灾害和防治沙漠化提供参考。